Rishi Sunak insists the Tories CAN win the election after top minister Grant Shapps admits they are set to lose on July 4 with huge poll showing party staring down the barrel of '1945-style' disaster that will cost string of big-hitters their seats

Rishi Sunak insisted the Conservatives can win the election today, after one of his most trusted ministers suggested all hope was lost.

The Prime Minister tried to inject optimism into the Tory campaign today on his return to the fray following the G7.

It came after Defence Secretary Grant Shapps admitted that the Tories are set to lose the election after a huge poll showed he could be among a swathe of high-profile casualties.

The Defence Secretary said he was a 'realist' about the party's prospects as he renewed pleas for voters not to gift Labour a 'supermajority'.

But the PM slapped down Mr Shapps on a visit to a gas rig in the North Sea, insisting the party is 'on the right track'.

'There's still two-and-a-half weeks to go in this election, I'm fighting hard for every vote because I believe we can win,' he told reporters.

'And there's a very clear choice at this election: it's having your taxes cut by the Conservatives or facing significant tax rises with the Labour Party.'

Asked if he understands people's frustrations with the Tory party with some deciding to turn to Reform UK, he replied: 'Of course I understand people's frustrations with that, I mean that's undeniable, and I've been very clear that we have made progress but there is more to go.

'But the point now is we are on the right track and this election is about the future.

'The choice is clear: if you want your border secure and migration down, if you want your taxes cut, your pension protected, it's only the Conservatives that are going to deliver that for you.'

The latest research by Survation, released over the weekend and using the so-called MRP technique, indicated that the Conservatives could be reduced to just 72 MPs on July 4.

It suggested that Keir Starmer could win by an incredible margin of 262, with Nigel Farage's Reform picking up seven MPs.

Home Secretary James Cleverly was projected to lose his Braintree seat, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would fall victim to the Lib Dems in Godalming and Ash.

Election experts have warning that previously ultra-safe seats are under threat as the party's core vote is collapsing - comparing it to Churchill's defeat at the 1945 election. 

The grim picture comes as Best for Britain unveil their tactical voting recommendations to inflict most pain on the Tories. 

In other moves today:

• Reform is launching its election manifesto this morning as Nigel Farage says he wants to be PM by 2029;
• Labour is engulfed in more tax chaos after Jonathan Ashworth broke ranks to rule out revaluing council tax bands;
• Rachel Reeves has been stressing her desire for closer ties with the EU.   

Mr Shapps told Times Radio it is 'possible to win the election', but conceded that it is 'not the most likely outcome', adding: 'I'm a realist.'

Asked if a Tory victory was unlikely he replied: 'I think that's the realistic position, isn't it? I mean, I live in the real world. So you know, let's not try and pretend black is white.'

Mr Shapps also said he stands by the comments he made last week that Labour could secure a 'supermajority'.

He said: 'We're still fighting for absolutely every single vote, which is absolutely the right thing to do and warning of the dangers of Labour. 

'But what I said last week stands, a blank cheque, a supermajority is a dangerous thing, particularly when we already know they have these plans to change the council tax bands.'

As Reform prepares to launch its manifesto this morning, Mr Shapps also renewed his attack on Nigel Farage.

Speaking to LBC Radio, Mr Shapps said: 'I think there's a sense of frustration out there and I get that entirely. But I think in the end, there are only two people who can be in Downing Street, it's either Rishi Sunak or it's Keir Starmer.

'And if you vote Reform, or Lib Dem, or any other direction for that matter, that simply helps Keir Starmer go in with unchecked power to do things like release all the people who've already been rounded up to be deported, which is exactly the opposite to what a lot of Reform voters would want.'