Rishi Sunak warns Keir Starmer will 'raise taxes and raid your pension' and has 'no plan' on immigration as leaders squabble in high-stakes ITV election debate - but as poll shows PM edging it 51%-49% was Nigel Farage the REAL winner?

Rishi Sunak warned Brits that Keir Starmer will 'raise your taxes and raid your pensions' and has 'no plan' to tackle immigration as they clashed in a crunch election debate tonight.

A snap poll suggested the PM narrowly edged an incredibly bad-tempered head-to-head on ITV, where both leaders repeatedly spoke over each as host Julie Etchingham struggled to rein them in.

Nigel Farage was the ghost at the feast after he announced a run to become a Reform MP, with Mr Sunak stressing that only he and Sir Keir can end up in No10 and a vote for 'other' parties will only guarantee Labour in power.

'Beyond raising your taxes and raiding your pensions, no one knows what he will do,' Mr Sunak said of his rival. 'I have a clear plan for a more secure future for you and your family.' 

Mr Sunak had to go on the offensive because of Labour's massive poll lead, and went hard from the start, berating Sir Keir for plotting to hike the tax burden by £2,000 a year. 

He later went on the attack over Net Zero saying Sir Keir would inflict big costs by forcing people to upgrade boilers and change cars. 'Mark my words Labour will raise your taxes,' he said. 

However, Sir Keir said that was 'nonsense' and he wanted to 'turn the page' with a 'practical plan' for the country. He jibed that Mr Sunak calling the election early demonstrated that he did not believe the 'plan was working'. 'If he thinks that things are going to get better why has he called it now?' Sir Keir said.

The leaders crossed swords on immigration, with Mr Sunak arguing that Rwanda policy could help stop small boats. When Sir Keir branded it an 'expensive gimmick' Mr Sunak shot back: 'You might not like it but I've got a plan.'

Sir Keir also taunted the 'desperate' Tory leader that he was the 'most liberal' PM ever because legal net immigration is running at record levels - with the latest figures 685,000 a year.

Mr Sunak received a round of applause as he said he was prepared to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to ensure migrants could be deported. But Sir Keir was also clapped as he said the UK should stick to its legal obligations.     

There were groans from the audience as Mr Sunak was challenged over NHS waiting lists, and claimed they were 'coming down'. 'They are coming down from when they were higher,' he said.

Mr Sunak was targeted with more muttering from the crowd as he said the health service had been hit by 'industrial action'. 'So you're blaming someone else,' Sir Keir shot back.

In other key moments in the debate:

• A YouGov snap poll found that 51 per cent thought Mr Sunak won the debate, with 49 per cent plumping for Sir Keir - excluding don't knows;  
• In a clear sign of how worried he is about the threat from Reform, Mr Sunak used his closing statement to warn that a vote for any other party is a vote for Labour; 
• Sir Keir mocked the Tories' National Citizen Service policy as a 'teenage Dads' Army', but Mr Sunak accused him of 'sneering' at a popular idea; 
• Mr Sunak defended private schools saying Sir Keir would punish parents who wanted to opt out of the state system; 
• Sir Keir contrasted his background as the son of a a toolmaker with Mr Sunak's wealth; 
• Both leaders said they would work with Donald Trump as US president even as a convicted criminal;  
• Etchingham repeatedly pleaded for the pair to calm down, saying she would not be 'gentle' with them any more. 

The stakes for the premier were underlined just before the start of the debate by huge Survation research showing Labour is on track for the biggest majority in modern political history at 324 seats - compared to the 179 margin Tony Blair achieved. 

The survey - conducted using the so-called MRP technique - projected the Conservatives would be reduced to just 71 MPs.

Mr Sunak would barely manage to cling on to his own Richmond & Northallerton constituency. It also suggested Reform could win three, as Nigel Farage launches his bombshell bid to win a constituency. 

Mr Sunak said people should judge him by his actions during the pandemic. 

'Every week when I'm out and about, someone comes up to me and tells me how furlough saved their family, saved their home, because that's who I am,' the Prime Minister told the ITV debate.

As ITV host Julie Etchingham tried to get him to finish his answer, Mr Sunak said he wanted to cut taxes while Labour wanted to put them up.

Sir Keir Starmer suggested the wealthy Prime Minister did not understand the plight facing hard-pressed households.

Referring to his own childhood, he said: 'I do know the anguish of worrying, when the postman comes with a bill, what is that bill going to be, can I pay it?

'I don't think the Prime Minister quite understands the position that you and other people are in. '

Sir Keir branded Mr Sunak 'the British expert of tax rises' as they clashed over tax rates. 

The PM hit back with the Tory claim that Labour would put up taxes by £2,000 for every family. 

Referencing audience member Paula who was struggling to pay her bills, the PM asked the Labour leader: 'If people are struggling with their bills, why do you want to increase the amount they pay in tax ... you name it, Labour will tax it.'

The two leaders clashed on immigration, with Mr Sunak saying a Labour government would abandon Rwanda deportation flights. 

'The flights will go in July, but only if i am the prime minister,' he adds.

'If Keir Starmer is PM those people will be released … they will be out on the streets.'

Host Julie Etchinham had to interrupt him again as he demanded of the Labour leader: 'What are you going to do?'

But Sir Keir fired back: 'He kept a promise (to cut illegal immigration) and he's completely failed to keep it.'

Mr Sunak vowed to take the UK out of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights if required to deal with the Channel crisis. 

He said: 'If I am forced to choose between our national security and … a foreign court I am going to choose national security every time.' 

But Sir Keir said the UK risked becoming a 'pariah' state if it left international conventions.

'We will not pull out of international agreements and international law which is respected the world over,' he said.

'Because I want the UK to be a respected player on the global stage, not a pariah who doesn't agree with international law.'

Etchingham warned the pair to stick to a rule of 45 seconds per answer, but repeatedly had to curtail the politicians' answers.

After one exchange, she told them: 'Please, an appeal from me not to speak over one another. We want to make sure that everybody can hear what you're saying.'

'Thank you, not over each other,' she said later.

'Gentlemen please, we're just going to take a pause there.'

After a commercial break, the host warned them: 'Just a little information for both of our candidates here, please, an appeal from me, not to speak over one another.

'We want to make sure that everybody can hear what you're saying.

'That was a gentle reminder, it may not be so gentle next time.'

One viewer posted on X: 'This debate is absolutely awful.

'The moderation is dreadful. The time to answer, and space to answer, is awful.

'The constant interruptions are awful. Everything is awful. I have zero confidence it will give a single voter any help in making a choice.'

Another said: 'Julie, please get hold of this, stop letting him talk over you.'

Later, as the debate over immigration got heated, the Prime Minister raised his voice asking the Labour leader: 'What are you going to do with illegal migrants?'

Etchingham intervened: 'Please gentleman, we will lower our voices.'

Speaking after the debate shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth accused 'tetchy' Rishi Sunak of speaking over Sir Keir. When MailOnline asked him about the times the Labour leader spoke over the PM he branded it a 'strong performance'.

He also brands the Tory claim that Labour would up taxes by £2,000 as 'garbage'

For the Tories, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins accuses Sir Keir of making up policy 'on the air'.

Michael Gove said that Labour is mired in 'confusion, despondency and disarray' after Rishi Sunak's performance. Asked about the threat from Reform UK he labelled them 'just a branch of the Labour Party.'

A Tory source defended Rishi Sunak's performance in the debate, saying 'I don't think he was steamrolling anyone'.

They added that often he was trying to get a straight answer out of the Labour leader: 'How many times did Keir Starmer not answer one of Rishi Sunak's questions, or Julie Etchinghams?'

Earlier, one defending MP told MailOnline they wanted Mr Sunak to emulate Nick Clegg, who handed the Lib Dem campaign a huge boost with his debate performance in 2010. 

But the former Cabinet minister said they were not optimistic he would succeed: 'It's difficult and I just don't know... we can but hope.'

Other senior Conservatives suggested Mr Sunak will need to 'hit Starmer hard' on issues such as the Rwanda deportations plan.

'Starmer is hardly very light on his feet. I think the stand for nothing charge might resonate,' one said. But they admitted that the gap in the polls meant the premier needed a 'miracle'. 

Mr Sunak stayed away from the campaign trail today as he focused on preparing, arriving in Manchester in casual clothes accompanied by key aides. Earlier he went to scope out the futuristic set for the clash.  

The Survation findings were based on more than 30,000 interviews conducted since the start of the election campaign. The MRP method maps demographic characteristics to voters to give seat-by-seat estimates. 

However, many Tories insist they are not detecting the same level of gloom on the doorstep. 

There was slightly better news for Mr Sunak as a separate Savanta poll suggested the Labour lead had been trimmed to 14 points.

There is rising anger within Conservative ranks at the PM's decision to call the election earlier than most had expected.

With little sign of Mr Sunak making inroads into Labour's huge poll lead, one Tory candidate bemoaned the PM's 'obviously really stupid' gamble on a summer vote.

Another Conservative candidate claimed MPs and party members had been 'thrown to the wolves'.

Mr Sunak is reeling from Nigel Farage's decision to return to the political frontline to lead Reform UK's campaign and seek a House of Commons seat in Clacton-on-Sea.

Some Tories have been venting frustration that Mr Sunak did not act earlier to head off the threat from Mr Farage. 

One former minister told MailOnline the Brexit champion should 'absolutely' have been given a peerage before. 'It was stupid and churlish not to,' they said. 

The PM faced a double blow yesterday when a new YouGov poll, released shortly after Mr Farage's dramatic announcement, showed the Tories on course for wipeout.

Sir Keir, who has faced his own difficulties with high-profile rows over Labour's selection of candidates, campaigned in the North West this morning.

But the Labour leader used this afternoon for final preparations for tonight's debate.

Asked how he was feeling ahead of the encounter, Sir Keir said: 'Very good, looking forward to the opportunity to speak directly to voters through the debate to put our case, because at the end of the day it is that clear choice, and I think voters will see that tonight. 

Sir Keir said his prep had been carried out by 'the same team as for PMQs'.

Mr Sunak has been gearing up for the debate with deputy PM Oliver Dowden playing the part of the Labour leader in rehearsals. 

The key issues the leaders will clash on tonight  

The Economy 

The PM is likely to repeat his message that 'the plan is working' as he will remind voters of his efforts to bring down inflation amid the cost-of-living crisis.

Mr Sunak has warned that Labour would take Britain back to 'square one' if they win power and warn voters not to put the UK's economic recovery at risk.

He has claimed Sir Keir would be forced to increase taxes if he reaches No10, in order to fill a £38.5 billion 'blackhole' in Labour's spending plans.

Mr Sunak has used the general election campaign to unveil a new 'triple lock plus' for the state pension to ensure payments for retirees are never taxed.

He has accused Labour of a 'retirement tax' by failing to match his pledge that the tax-free personal allowance will rise at the same pace as state pension increases.

But Sir Keir is likely to hit back that pensioners - and other Brits - are only facing larger tax bills due to Mr Sunak's decision to freeze income tax thresholds.

The Labour leader will be keen to point out the UK's tax burden is at its highest for more than 70 years.

He is also expected to make frequent references to the economic turmoil that accompanied Liz Truss's spell as PM, while attacking sluggish economic growth under the Tories.

Overall, Sir Keir will hope to portray Labour as a fiscally responsible party compared to the 'chaos' of 14 years of Conservative rule.

The NHS 

Mr Sunak will face a tricky ride on the state of the health service after admitting earlier this year that he had failed on a pledge to cut NHS waiting lists in England.

But the PM is likely to argue that waiting lists were moving in the right direction before the impact of strike action by NHS staff.

Mr Sunak recently unveiled plans to boost community care with 100 new GP surgeries and 50 community diagnostic centres to be built were he to remain PM.

He has vowed to fund his proposals by slashing the number of NHS managers.

The PM is likely to repeat that the NHS is 'personal to me' as his father was a GP and his mother owned a pharmacy.

Sir Keir will also make personal reference to the NHS, where his wife works in occupational health.

Labour have promised to clear waits of more than 18 weeks within five years of taking office as part of their efforts to clear hospital backlogs.

They are pledging 40,000 extra appointments, scans, and operations a week during evenings and weekends, and to use spare capacity in private hospitals.

Labour claim the extra appointments and new scanners will cost £1.3billion and will be paid for by clamping down on tax dodgers and closing non-dom tax loopholes. 

Defence

The PM will put pressure on the Labour leader to match his pledge to boost defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030.

Mr Sunak is also likely to make frequent references to Sir Keir's support for ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was sceptical of NATO and opposed nuclear weapons.

The PM used a recent speech to warn voters 'your family and our country are all at risk if Labour win'.

Labour have committed to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on the military 'as soon as we can' but not put a date on when they hope to achieve that target.

Sir Keir has attempted to beef up his credentials on national security by recently making a 'triple lock' pledge on Britain's nuclear deterrent.

This saw him commit to continuing to build four new nuclear submarines, maintaining Britain's at-sea deterrent, and delivering all future upgrades for submarine patrols.

The Tories branded the promise 'meaningless', given a dozen of Labour's current front bench team voted against renewing Trident in 2016 under Mr Corbyn.

This included shadow foreign secretary David Lammy and deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner. 

Migration

The PM will push his Rwanda plan as the best way to solve the Channel migrant crisis by providing a deterrent to those thinking of making the perilous journey on a small boat.

He will also promote his newly-unveiled pledge to introduce a cap on worker and family visas in a bid to ensure legal migration figures fall year on year.

The proposed plan would give Parliament a direct role in setting levels of migration, with MPs having a vote on the number.

Mr Sunak is also likely to attack Sir Keir's support for remaining in the EU, which would have seen Britain keep free movement rules.

He is also expected to take aim at Labour's interest in an asylum returns deal with the EU, which the Tories have warned would see Britain obligated to take in 100,000 migrants from the bloc each year.

Sir Keir has branded the Rwanda plan a 'gimmick' and pointed to the cost to taxpayers of a scheme that has yet to see a single migrant deported to the African country.

Labour's plan is to establish a new Border Security Command to crackdown on people-smuggling gangs who charge extortionate fees to take migrants across the Channel.

Sir Keir has promised to slash 'sky-high' net migration if he becomes PM and claimed the Tories have 'lost control of our borders'.

Tory 'chaos' vs 'Sir Flip-Flop'

Tonight's debate is likely to see plenty of personal attacks from both the PM and Sir Keir.

Mr Sunak will seek to portray the Labour leader as a 'left lawyer' who would undermine Britain's economic and national security.

He could also use the Tory moniker of 'Sir Flip-Flop' for the Labour leader, after Sir Keir ditched many of the pledges he ran for his party's leadership on.

The PM will be expected to make frequent references to Sir Keir's past membership of Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet.

But the Labour leader will also try to link Mr Sunak to his immediate predecessor, by focusing on the 'chaos' of Ms Truss's spell in No10.

Overall, Sir Keir is likely to ask voters whether they feel better off after 14 years of Conservative rule.