Scott’s aim to succeed McConnell disrupts GOP leadership race

Rick Scott’s entry into the battle for GOP leader has scrambled the generally sleepy race, testing his rivals’ ties to Mitch McConnell and putting a heavier Trump focus on the November contest.

Scott’s bid is not a surprise, especially given his previous challenge to McConnell in 2022, and he's an underdog to both Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a rare open leadership race. But his uncompromising campaign platform may once again attract conservative support, potentially locking up a crucial bloc of votes that could ultimately help determine who becomes leader.

“He’d be a favorite of the president’s; of course, he likes the other guys too. I know [Trump] likes Rick, Rick’s spent a lot of time down in Florida and knows him quite well,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who is neutral but praised Scott’s conservative leadership platform. “I’m glad he’s in. We get away from the John syndrome."

The Florida Republican creates a starker contrast in the race, which has been low drama so far. Thune and Cornyn have both served on McConnell's leadership team and are obvious heirs to the Kentuckian, whereas Scott has had an incredibly public rivalry with the current Senate minority leader and hasn't shied from embracing more controversial policies. And while the McConnell allies have broken with Donald Trump in the past, rhetorically or otherwise, Scott has tightly aligned himself with the former president.

Scott spoke to Trump directly on Wednesday as he rolled out his leadership campaign, according to a person familiar with the conversation, putting a spotlight on the X factor that the former president could play in the race.

Asked about Scott’s bid, both Thune and Cornyn refrained from taking a shot at him. But Thune emphasized that “any change is going to be a significant change” from McConnell. Cornyn said he’s had his own conversations with Trump — and added that the fact that the election is held via secret ballot will help shield the vote from outside influences, including the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

“I don’t know whether President Trump’s going to get involved or not. I’ve had personal conversations and meetings with President Trump about this topic. But my experience is this is the ultimate insider race,” Cornyn said.

McConnell declined to comment on Scott, who he has broken with repeatedly over strategy. As National Republican Senatorial Committee chair during the 2022 cycle, Scott released his own agenda with more conservative political policies, a move McConnell criticized as giving Democrats a free shot ahead of the midterm election. Republicans failed to regain the Senate that year, and Scott's subsequent challenge to McConnell's leadership failed by a wide margin.

Scott's announced second try prompted some head-scratching among the rank-and-file GOP. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he was surprised Scott, who is seeking reelection, launched his bid now: “He’s on the ballot. You do have to win first. It’s hard to commit to somebody who has to win an election.”

“The two Johns are vying for other ones. And Rick starts with the ones we all know, probably 10,” Cramer added, assessing Scott’s prospects. That’s the number of Republicans who supported Scott in 2022 over McConnell.

Several conservative Republicans, like Tuberville and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), sounded warm on Scott’s bid but didn't fully endorse it yet. Lee said Scott’s platform is a “game-changer” because it could induce Cornyn and Thune to more fully explain their own visions. Scott detailed his positions in a letter to colleagues Wednesday, which included vows to prioritize GOP demands over bipartisan deals, increased transparency and more amendment consideration.

Most of those promises are generally popular among Republicans — but they're easier to say than they are to execute. And other parts of Scott's letter, including his critique that the GOP has been too compromising with Democrats, seemed like an indirect criticism of Thune and Cornyn, who have voted for more of those compromises than Scott.

“There's many times you shouldn't, and you ought to just stop bad ideas, but occasionally there's sometimes things where interests align,” Cornyn said.

If Scott locks up 10 votes, it’s certainly not enough to win a leadership race. But it’s enough to have an impact. If there are more than two candidates, there will be multiple rounds of ballots — and there are scenarios where 10 is enough to advance to the next round and eliminate a candidate, especially if more candidates jump into the race, as several senators suspect.

“I suppose everybody has a chance. I'm not going to handicap his chances,” Thune said of Scott. “If there's more than one ballot, you have to think about second ballot votes. And, you know, clearly, you want to get through the first round of voting. And so it's a dynamic that you just have to adjust for.”

More wild-card candidates could prompt further adjustments. Trump has encouraged Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the current NRSC chair, to launch his own bid, though Daines won’t make any moves until after the election.

And Daines gave Scott credit on Thursday, saying the Florida Republican has done enough work in his home state to allow him to run a race back home and in Washington simultaneously: “He’s running like he’s five points behind when he’s 10 points ahead.”

Of course, Scott has ground to make up in more ways than one. Thune and Cornyn have been discussing their bids with colleagues for months now — and assisting GOP Senate candidates who could vote in the leadership elections this fall and play pivotal roles.

Still, there are plenty of senators who won’t make their minds up soon no matter how many candidates get in.

“I know some have made their commitments early. I want to see what happens in early November, after the election. I’m going to wait until then,” said Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.).

Ursula Perano contributed to this report.