With the UK Labour Party leading in the polls by 20 points ahead of the incumbent Conservative Party, a change in government following Thursday’s (4 July) snap general election seems inevitable and could mean attempts to get closer to the EU with migration and security likely to top the agenda.
The Labour Party, led by Sir Kier Starmer, is on course to win some 484 seats in the 650-seat parliament, significantly more than in Tony Blair’s landslide win in 1997. This means the Conservative Party, headed by Rishi Sunak and in power for 14 years, could win just 64 seats, the fewest in the party’s entire 190-year history.
On the campaign trail, the topic of Brexit has been tough, with Labour treading carefully in the hopes of placating ‘remainers’ while also seeking the votes of disillusioned Conservative and swing voters.
Starmer said he would “not re-open the wounds of the past” regarding the UK’s return to the European Union, but he hoped to get the country a better deal with the bloc.
“I’ve been equally clear that I do think we can get a better deal than the botched deal we got under Boris Johnson – on the trading front, on research and development, and on security”, he said, adding that this will all be subject to negotiation after the voters are counted.
However, Starmer was clear that the UK would not rejoin the single market or the customs union in his lifetime.
Asked by journalists whether he could see any circumstances where the UK would rejoin either of the two, Starmer said, “No. I don’t think that that is going to happen. I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union – or [allowing a] return to freedom of movement.”
Regarding trade, the prospective finance minister, known in the UK as the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, was more forthcoming in an interview with the Financial Times. She said she would seek to break down trade barriers with the EU and would not hold the same fixation that the Conservatives have on regulatory divergence.
In the manifesto there is a commitment, “to negotiate a veterinary agreement to prevent unnecessary border checks and help tackle the cost of food; help our touring artists; and secure a mutual recognition agreement for professional qualifications to help open up markets for UK service exporters.”
While a Labour UK may seek better relations with the EU, the bloc will likely not bend over backwards to accommodate. Since London’s departure, the EU has been clear that it can not ‘cherry-pick’ the benefits and features of its membership that it wants.
As the EU grapples with its own challenges, including a war on its doorstep, migration, international trade disputes, the rise of the far-right, and Euroscepticism among some of its members, it may not want to complicate things further by trying to accommodate the UK.
However, there are two areas in which close cooperation could be of interest: migration and security.
Aside from mentioning that he wants a better deal with the EU on security, Starmer has previously used ‘national security’ to woo domestic voters, suggesting that it is high on his list of priorities.
“The very foundation of any good government is economic security, border security, national security,” Starmer said during a speech a month ago. “This is the foundation, the bedrock that our manifesto and our first steps will be built upon.”
The UK will soon host a NATO summit as well as the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace in London. Furthermore, Labour intends to seek a new security pact with the EU to rebuild and strengthen cooperation with its allies and sign new bilateral agreements.
As for migration, which both the EU and the UK are battling, it is likely Starmer will seek to be part of a pan-European scheme to combat irregular migration and manage resettlement and the processing of migrants crossing the Mediterranean.
Starmer has also said he plans to scrap the controversial ‘Rwanda scheme’, which would see asylum seekers and refugees processed and resettled in Rwanda, not the UK. However, several EU countries have picked up on the plan, and they have voiced interest in replicating similar ‘outsourcing’ schemes.
*Catherine Feore contributed to reporting
(Alice Taylor | Euractiv.com – Edited by Sarantis Michaloupoulous)