Snap elections: Two scenarios that could shape France’s political future

The French far-right Rassemblement national (RN) secured a historic win on the first round of the snap legislative elections on Sunday (30 June), but this may not necessarily translate into a far-right government after the second round of votes next weekend.

The French legislative two-round system is so complex it is often hard to comprehend.

But what is certain is that the composition of the future French National Assembly, and whether the far right enters government, is not automatic despite their historic win on Sunday.

As results stand, two scenarios could emerge – impacting both domestic policy-making and France’s influence in the EU.

Scenario #1: A far right – Macron ‘cohabitation’

In the first scenario, the far right will either have an absolute majority in the National Assembly – with 289 seats out of 577 – or manage to edge close to an absolute majority, passing over the threshold with some help from sympathetic conservative members of parliament (MPs).

French President Emmanuel Macron would then need to agree entering into a governing coalition –  known in France as a ‘cohabitation’ – with the RN.

As things stand, this scenario is probably the least likely of the two, but it would have the most severe impacts on French and EU politics.

Some government ministers would come from RN – pushing through their own policies, with the near-certainty their laws would be adopted by a majority of compliant MPs.

This could include, in the first days in office, lowering VAT on energy and fuel from 20% to 5.5%, cutting emergency health care aid for people living in France who have not formally received asylum, and freezing the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine.

This scenario would also have significant consequences at the EU level, with RN ministers joining Council of the European Union negotiations on a variety of legislative files, and possibly giving far-right governments across Europe leverage to form a blocking minority.

The EU legislative process allows for like-minded member states to create a blocking minority, and force legislation to fall through. To do so, a minimum of four countries representing 35% of the total EU population is required.

In the context of a cohabitation, RN could join their Italian, Slovakian, Hungarian and Dutch counterparts to block key files. This would amount to far-right “collective veto power”, leading liberal member of the European Parliament (MEP) Pascal Canfin wrote on social media platform LinkedIn last week.

This means key policy issues such as EU enlargement to Ukraine and Moldova, or a new round of joint debt to fund Ukraine’s defence, might very well be in jeopardy.

Scenario #2: A hung parliament

The second scenario, a hung parliament, is the more likely outcome.

In this instance, there would be no absolute majority and no obvious parliamentary coalition.

France would enter unchartered territory, as political institutions are not prepared for this kind of outcome.

Coalition-making and minority governments, though common in several member states, are foreign to French political culture, which always favoured confrontational debates and stark parliamentary splits.

“Whatever happens next Sunday, the best-case scenario for France from here — a G7 member, permanent member of [the] UN, a key member of, and driving force in the EU, and a leading force in the pro-Ukraine camp — is that it will be largely rudderless for a year,” wrote Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director of the European of the Eurasia group, a global political risk consultancy, on X.

In this situation, a caretaker government – excluding the RN – could be created, similar to Mario Draghi’s Italian ‘national unity’ government, which he formed in 2021 after a previous government collapsed and no new evident coalition could be formed again.

Macron’s announcements and policy decisions at an EU level would be conditional on extensive multi-party negotiations, slowing the pace of reform and denting his international stature.

Ultimately, this would stretch France’s political institutions to their limits, and risks causing a long-lasting crisis — since Macron has so far ruled out resigning, and the constitution prohibits calling new snap legislative elections for at least another year.

[Edited by Rajnish Singh / Aurélie Pugnet]

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