SNP would be 'the only winners' from voting for Nigel Farage's Reform UK, allowing John Swinney's party to escape its heaviest election defeat in a decade and could put Nationalists on the brink of a majority of seats, Scots warned

Scots are being warned they risk allowing the SNP to escape its heaviest election defeat in a decade if they vote for Reform UK. 

Senior officials within the Scottish Tories have issued a plea to their voters not to switch to Reform after analysis of recent polling indicated the Nationalists could still win 28 seats, putting them on the brink of a majority of Scots seats.

It is largely down to a significant shift in support from the Tories to Reform, which could help the SNP win all 12 key Scottish Conservative target seats.

But with all 12 of the seats on a knife edge, a shift back from Reform to the Tories could help inflict the heaviest electoral losses on the SNP in more than a decade.

Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy said: ‘Every vote for Reform risks an SNP win in the key seats which will come down to a straight choice between the Nationalists or Scottish Conservatives.

‘Every seat is on a knife edge, so even a small number of votes for Reform could mean multiple wins for the SNP.

‘If people who are considering voting Reform choose to back the Scottish Conservatives instead, we can make this the worst result for the SNP in more than a decade.

‘But the results are so close that every vote will count. The SNP are down, but we need to make sure it stays that way and we get them out for good.

‘If even a small percentage of people vote Reform, that runs the risk of an SNP resurgence and John Swinney using every victory to try to demand independence.’

A flurry of recent polls have put Reform on between 6 per cent and 8 per cent in Scotland. 

One survey published yesterday suggested Nigel Farage’s party has secured the support of one in eight of the Scots voters who backed the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.

Tory analysis claims that an 8 per cent vote for Reform in its 12 target seats would lead to the SNP winning them all and getting 28 MPs elected across Scotland.

In contrast, the SNP would suffer heavy losses if those considering voting for Mr Farage’s party voted Tory instead in these key target seats – and the SNP could fall to its lowest number of MPs in more than a decade. 

The SNP won only six seats in the 2010 general election, before this soared to 56 in 2015.

Tory strategists say that internal and external research indicates that every one of its target seats is within a five percentage point swing with the SNP – meaning those considering voting for Reform could be crucial.

Even in some safer seats they believe there are likely to be only a few hundred votes between the Tories and the SNP. 

A Survation poll published showed that support for Reform is now above the Liberal Democrats at 8 per cent.

It put Labour ahead on 37 per cent, followed by the SNP on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 14 per cent, Reform on 8 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent and the Greens on 3 per cent.

That level of support could lead to defeats for the Tories to the SNP in most of its key targets. 

It could also see the SNP’s Seamus Logan defeat Conservative leader Douglas Ross in the key battleground of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.

Modelling by Ballot Box Scotland found the result would lead to Labour winning 31 seats if applied across Scotland’s 57 constituencies, with the SNP taking 17, the Lib Dems five and the Tories four.

Writing in the Herald, Allan Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland said: ‘Emphasising just how close things could be, 15 seats could go a different way with a swing of just 2 per cent or less.

‘That includes Douglas Ross’s Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat, which sits on a knife edge, dependent on how attractive Reform UK is in Scotland’s most pro-Brexit constituency and how dim a view voters take of his shock defenestration of David Duguid.’

At an event in East Lothian yesterday to mark the beginning of the last week of campaigning, Mr Ross said: ‘There is just one week left for voters up and down Scotland to ensure July 4 won’t just be a bad night for the SNP, but a terrible one. 

In key seats, if voters unite behind their Scottish Conservative candidate, they can beat the SNP and help end their independence obsession for good.

‘Next Thursday’s vote is too crucial an opportunity to waste to ensure the SNP are beaten across the country. 

They may be down but the Nationalists are not out. Key constituencies remain on a knife edge and every vote will matter. Voting for any other party in those seats – or not voting at all – risks letting an SNP MP in by the back door.’

A Savanta survey for the Scotsman put Labour and the SNP neck-and-neck on 34 per cent, with the Tories on 14 per cent, Lib Dems on 7 per cent, and Reform on 6 per cent.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said Mr Ross will be ‘worried’ by the levels of support for his party, which would be a record low for a Westminster election.

The professor said: ‘Some of the damage is being done by Reform. 

'Although Nigel Farage’s party is not as popular as it is south of the Border, it is now claiming the support of one in eight 2019 Conservative voters.’

At an event in Grangemouth, near Falkirk, on Wednesday, Reform UK chairman Richard Tice dismissed concerns about Reform votes boosting the SNP. 

He said: ‘There’s this arrogant sense of entitlement that only the Conservative Party can adopt a philosophy of conservatism. They don’t own it. We are competition. That’s a good thing.’

Last week it emerged Jo Hart, who is standing for Reform in the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat, posted a vile anti-monarchy rant online during the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations.

The June 2022 social media post, which she said was a shared one, branded the royal family ‘benefit scroungers’. 

One comment also said ‘make Lizzy the last’. Her party refused to condemn the comments or take any action against her.

The offensive posts appeared during the four-day bank holiday weekend to mark the Jubilee.

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