Southern liberals on edge

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Welcome to EU Elections Decoded, your essential guide for staying up to date and receiving exclusive insights about the upcoming EU elections. This is Max Griera, writing from Maastricht and Brussels. Subscribe here.

In today’s edition

• Spain’s Ciudadanos party dying as key figures jump ship and join the right-wing casts doubt on the future of the liberals in southern Europe.
• Bits of the week: CDU sends warning to Les Républicains; The Parliament’s “unfinished business” list; Von der Leyen’s campaign debut; Mayhem after Maastricht Debate; Campaign trail updates; New polls-Tajani vs Salvini, SPD vs AfD.

Key figures from Spain’s liberal party Ciudadanos (Renew) switching to the right-wing Partido Popular (EPP) have cast doubt on the future of southern Europe’s liberal parties. 

The confirmation this week that three Ciudadanos MEPs, Adrián Vázquez Lázara, Eva Poptcheva, and Susana Solís, jumped ship and joined right-wing Partido Popular’s EU election lists has certified the death of the liberals in Spain, favouring the right-wing. 

Ciudadanos’ EU representation was its last source of strength after the party was buried in local and national elections in 2023. 

Crucially, two of the defecting MEPs were in core leadership positions: Adrián Vázquez Lázara was the Secretary-General and Eva Poptcheva was the Secretary-General for Programmes. 

For many in Spain the move, which comes after the liberal party failed to convince the right-wing PP to form a joint list, confirmed beliefs among the left that Ciudadanos’ was veering to the right. 

While Vázquez Lázara attacked PP’s leader Alberto Núnez Feijóo just a year ago trying to snatch voters, he has now adopted the party line. 

“Today, the Partido Popular is the only political alternative capable of rebuilding our civic and constitutional coexistence, and I proudly announce that I will run on its lists for the European Parliament” he said on X, thanking Feijóo for the trust placed in him and the recognition of his work over the years. 

The death of Ciudadanos, currently the second biggest delegation in the European Parliament’s liberal Renew Europe group, is a tragedy for the liberals’ presence in Europe’s south. 

Aside from Spain, Croatia, Malta, and Greece do not even have politically relevant factions. 

But not everything is looking completely grim for the southern European liberals.

In Italy, Azione and the mostly liberal United States of Europe (USE) coalition are close to entering the Parliament, both polling on the threshold at around 4%. If both make it, around eight Italian seats would go to Renew. 

Meanwhile, in Portugal, the Liberal Initiative party is polling at 6%, projected to score one seat. 

The only liberal strongholds arguably left in the south are Slovenia’s second-largest party Gibanje Svoboda, and French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance. However, even they are struggling as voters swing to Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National. 

Bits of the week

EPP infighting: CDU warns Les Républicains. “We expect the Républicans to realise that anyone who is with us in the EPP should also do their bit to ensure that Ursula von der Leyen remains Commission President,” Daniel Caspary, CDU delegation leader in the European Parliament told reporters, including Euractiv’s Nick Alipour, on Thursday. Les Républicains opposed von der Leyen as the party’s candidate for the Commission presidency, arguing she is “Macron’s candidate” and does not embody centre-right values.

…who is the boss? Caspary said that he aims at a centre coalition with Socialists and Greens if they “participate in a realistic package in which it is recognised that we are the strongest force,” which “must also be reflected in the content of the compromises.”

However, he added “we can’t reject anyone at the moment”, as the EPP will need a clear majority to appoint von der Leyen. He noted that Italy’s Meloni’s party has been reliable in passing the migration pact while the Greens voted against von der Leyen in 2019. 

The Parliament’s “unfinished business” list. Having concluded its legislative work on 25 April, 119 draft proposals are now paused until the newly elected Parliament gets to work in July. The Conference of Presidents, composed of the Parliament and political group presidents, will then decide which files to keep working on, and how (traditionally, it resumes work on all). Files include the transparency register for foreign actors bill, the contentious New Genomic Techniques regulation, and the Combating Corruption Directive. More information here.

63 of these files have not passed the plenary vote and are currently in the preparatory phase or in committee, meaning the next Parliament composition will be able to highly influence the files’ content. 

Von der Leyen’s campaign debut. As she was neither a Spitzenkandidat nor running for election in 2019, Europe was able to see von der Leyen in campaign mode for the first time during the first EU election debate this week in Maastricht, co-organised by Studio Europa and Politico.

Von der Leyen did not hesitate to push back against her opponents, all targeting her, also mentioning her family several times in an effort to make her tone of voice more “personal”, a key part of her campaign strategy. 

… snappy to Left and far-right. “I am getting tired of hearing that because, I mean, beg your pardon, but if you want to end this war, Putin just has to stop fighting, then the war is over”, she said, repeating the general EU stance, in reaction to the European Left’s Walter Baier, who argued for starting peace negotiations with Russia. 

Then, turning to her right and looking at ID’s Anders Vistisen, she continued: “And to you, when I see what the AfD [ID] colleagues have done, they are under investigation for being in the pocket of Putin, and if you look at the electoral programme, you will see they echo the lies and the propaganda of the Kremlin, so clean up your house before you criticise us!”

….post-debate mayhem. Following the debate, a student-organised pro-Palestine protest against von der Leyen penetrated the security perimeter, with police barricading the venue’s entrance and trapping attendees inside. An after-party in front of the venue had to be cancelled due to security concerns as protesters stormed the outside ‘village’. 

Earlier during the debate, von der Leyen said: “I’m never drawing red lines but I think it would be completely unacceptable if Netanyahu would invade Rafah,” adding that if that happened she would sit with the member states and “act”. 

Overall, the debate exposed the weaknesses of the Spitzenkandidat system, Nick Alipour writes. 

Campaign trail: European Greens hold their grand electoral rally in Brussels on 3 May, with Terry Reintke, Bas Eickhout, and Finnish presidential runner-up Pekka Haavisto; European Socialists and lead candidate Nicolas Schmit travel to Cologne and Aachen on 3 May to discuss reindustrialisation, competition policy and working conditions, and later to Paris to meet with France’s S&D lead candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, while on 4 May Schmit will go to Berlin to participate in a conference with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on how to battle the far-right surge; EPP’s Ursula von der Leyen goes next week to Poland, Germany, and Croatia. 

SPD vs AfD, Tajani vs Salvini. Germany’s far-right AfD party, plagued by scandals in recent months, is falling behind in the polls and is now neck-and-neck with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), with both parties at 16 seats. Meanwhile, in Italy, Matteo Salvini’s far-right Lega (ID) and Antonio Tajani’s centre-right Forza Italia (EPP) are tied at seven seats, after Lega’s continued drop in popularity as their voters shift to Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (ECR). Check the late-April EU election projections here. 

If you’d like to contact me for tips, comments, and/or feedback, drop me a line at max.griera@euractiv.com

[Edited by Aurelie Pugnet/Chris Powers]

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