Special Edition: What to expect from this week’s Washington NATO Summit

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Good morning from Washington,

Where all eyes this week will be on NATO leaders descending into the city for a three-day summit kicking off on Tuesday (9 July), to mark the military alliance’s 75th anniversary with a self-declared mission to display unity. 

After all, Finland and Sweden’s accession has added two highly capable militaries to NATO’s forces. The alliance has dusted off and upgraded its regional defence plans, and after decades of underinvestment, European members are ramping up spending.

But there won’t be any large birthday party or spectacular fireworks, some – very disappointed – NATO diplomats say.

Behind the facade of the smiles of leaders, the military alliance faces choppy waters.

Russian troops are making gains along Ukraine’s Eastern front in the third year of the war, Europeans are scrambling to bring their economy on a war footing, and the prospect of instability in a year of elections in key alliance members. 

Since Russian tanks rolled into the Donbas in February 2024, Kyiv’s Western allies have been adamant to do more for Ukraine, from the delivery of helmets to several Patriot air defence batteries and F-16s, all expected to arrive by the end of the year. 

But they have also been struggling to find new ways and means, with nearly all members agreeing that Ukraine needs more help to win the war, not just mere words of support.

Two red lines, however, remain: no membership for Kyiv until the end of the war and no western troops on the ground in Ukraine.  

In the run-up to the summit, allies have been at odds on whether, and how, to strengthen NATO’s wording on Ukraine’s future membership in the alliance.

Some of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters have been adamant and vocal in saying they don’t want another ‘Vilnius-like dustup’ as seen at last year’s get together.

→ Here’s our lead story:

EXPECTED DELIVERABLES

UKRAINE SUPPORT | Ahead of the NATO summit, members agreed this week to continue supplying Ukraine with €40 billion worth of military aid for next year, in a bid to give the country long-term reassurances and ‘shock-proof’ support against political hiccups, Euractiv has learnt.  

Contrary to the original Stoltenberg proposal, the money will not be pledged across several years, but for only one. After that, NATO will annually review this on the basis that this is a non-binding commitment.

Kyiv is also expected to receive good news on additional air defence systems, after Ukrainian officials over the past months have been urging their Western allies to supply more of them to defend against frequent missile and drone attacks from Russian forces on critical and civilian infrastructure.

This might be very well the “more concrete and positive outcome” of the summit for Ukraine, several NATO diplomats told Euractiv.

• NATO INDUSTRIAL PUSH

NATO leaders are also set to issue its first ever defence industrial pledge (likely on Wednesday) with the aim to provide a platform to help its members shape national arms production strategies, as Euractiv has learnt. The new attempt is meant to incentivise members to increase their domestic industrial capacities and return to a stricter standardisation of ammunition to make shells interoperable on the battlefield. 

The push comes after Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown shortfalls among NATO members to use each others artillery ammunition. Currently 14 members are deviating from the military alliance’s voluntary rules. Some NATO countries are, however, hesitant as the initiative could face headwinds from munitions makers that fear a rise in competition and lower prices. 

All this comes in the context of Western countries over the past two years having to scramble to refill their stockpiles, which had been significantly deflated since the Cold War, while simultaneously racing to supply Ukraine with what it needs to fight off the Russian invasion. 

NATO leaders are expected to agree to report annually how they intend to meet the alliance’s targets and how they aim to increase arms production, said NATO officials. 

In addition, the EU and NATO this week announced they will partner to support funding in the defence sector, to attract more private investors, to deal with industry’s demands to get more access to funds for innovation and production. 

• MONEY, MONEY, MONEY

A decade after setting its 2% GDP spending goal, just over two-thirds of NATO’s 32 members are now expected to reach or overshoot that threshold by the end of this year.

In the lead: the Baltic States and Poland, with the latter likely to reach over 4% soon. Even European heavyweights Germany and France, long reluctant to significantly commit to the target, are expected to reach this target within this year. Canada, Italy and Spain, are still lagging behind the NATO target.

Expect the increase in defence spending to be heavily showcased in Washington, not only as a warning towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also to a certain potential future NATO-sceptic US leader – former president Donald Trump – who might be watching.

What to watch: A year after turning the 2% benchmark from a ‘target’ to a ‘floor’ for spending at last year’s Vilnius summit, a growing number of NATO members have already started a push to go further. But the idea to codify an increase of their respective defence spending to 3% GDP, according to many NATO diplomats, remains for now a distant prospect.

• PARTNER’s DISPLAY

Representatives from all of NATO’s 40+ partners will attend the summit, which will will break the score for its biggest attendance to date. Those will include the EU and neighbourhood countries that are vulnerable to Russia’s aggression on Europe’s eastern flank as well as those further away from Europe’s security theatre like South America and Middle East.

Expect the Indo-Pacific (looking at you, China), to feature as the primary theme, according to US officials.

NEW (STRONG AND WEAK) KIDS ON THE BLOC 

Out with the old and in with the new – well, not quite yet. But one leader particularly watching this summit will be incoming new NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who is expected to take over from Stoltenberg in October. Expect NATO leaders to use sideline talks to prod him about his plans for the alliance in the next five years.

NATO will also welcome a few new faces in attendance, with one of them being UK’s new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, for whom it will be his first major international engagement in his new role. Many expect London to take a larger role on the global stage after years of soured relations with Europe over Brexit. Part of Starmer’s speaking notes includes the pledge that there will be no change in the UK’s staunch support for Ukraine and an increase in the country’s defence spending to 2.5% GDP.

Sweden will be officially welcomed as full member around the NATO table for the first time. With that, the strategic situation in the Baltic Sea region and the Western military alliance’s Northern Flank has changed radically, but Russia still poses a threat above and below water.

On the weaker front, we’ll see German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, whose governments in Paris and Berlin were weakened in elections this year. Especially Macron will fly across the Atlantic after a second seismic round of legislative polls back home.

ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM 

Expect the main one, of course, to be Russia and potentially more precisely, Russia’s hybrid attacks across Europe in recent weeks.

Connected to that, it will be Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s unannounced field trip to Moscow that might be hotly debated as it has ruffled feathers inside the Western military alliance. The rare trip to Russia by a European leader had drawn significant condemnation from Ukraine and Western leaders.

And then there is also China, of course. Beijing’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has moved it again higher on NATO’s threat list. Far from the Western alliance’s territory, NATO did not mention it until five years ago.

Unity, in general, and the display of it will be the main theme for the Washington summit. NATO members are increasingly nervous over the risk of the French far-right entering government, diplomats said, and in general are looking warily at the fact that countries like the new far-right government in the Netherlands or Spain’s deal with the hard-left rely on a range of small parties to rule.

On everybody’s mind will be also the uncertain outcome of the US presidential election in November and a potential return of Trump to the White House.

Expect leaders to sidestep questions about US President Joe Biden’s health. It has become a major issue in the US presidential election campaign, following his shaky performance in a debate with Republican opponent Donald Trump last week.

Stoltenberg last week graciously dodged a reporter’s question on the matter, saying that NATO summits always take place within a domestic political context but NATO’s success stems from the fact it “always stayed out of domestic political issues.” Will others take a leaf out of his book?

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

• This NATO Summit Is a Big Win for Biden [Foreign Policy]
• NATO’s Missing Pillar: The Alliance Needs a More Powerful Europe [Foreign Affairs]
• The Untold Story Of The Most Chaotic NATO Summit Ever [FT]
• Trump Won’t Quit NATO. He’ll Just Make It Unrecognizable. [Politico Magazine]

ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK

• French legislative election, second round
  | Sunday, 7 July 2024 | France
• India’s PM Modi pays visit to Russia’s President Putin
  | Monday, 8 July 2024 | Moscow, Russia
• NATO Leaders’ Summit, agenda details here
  | Tue-Thu, 9-11 July 2024 | Washington DC, United States

PREVIOUS EDITIONS

• Defence Funding Could Be The EU’s Next Big Battle To Fight
• The EU’s Race To Lock In Ukraine Long-Term Support
• Switzerland’s Ukraine Summit Reveals Split Visions For Future Peace Settlement

[Edited by Rajnish Singh]

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