Switzerland’s Ukraine summit reveals split visions for future peace settlement

5 months ago 13

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As Western powers and non-Western countries meet at a major summit in Switzerland to find a consensus on how to end Russia’s war with Ukraine, the talks also show that Kyiv might face increasing calls for a “difficult compromise.”

Kyiv’s Western allies are trying to use the summit to win a forceful condemnation of the invasion, invoking the UN Charter to safeguard the Ukrainian territorial integrity, and rejecting Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s demands for parts of Ukraine as a condition for peace.

Several Western leaders came straight from a G7 summit in southern Italy the day earlier, where they had agreed on more means to financially support Ukraine.

“One thing is clear in this conflict: There is an aggressor, which is Putin, and there is a victim, which is the Ukrainian people,” Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a Saturday session.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the participation of more than 100 countries as a show of international support for his war-torn country, even though key Global South countries were absent and some European leaders said a broader outreach was needed to build a lasting peace plan.

The overall picture has two contrasting positions: On the one side, the Russian leader in the Kremlin is trying to dictate absurd terms of peace, on the other, the Ukrainian leader is cajoling everyone else into accepting a Ukraine-led peace plan.

But while the summit created powerful visuals supporting Kyiv’s and the West’s cause, it also exposed a significant contrast between the West and ‘the rest’.

“It’s like we’re in a Western echo chamber (…) all Western European countries, the US, we agree on what we want to happen with Ukraine,” Austria’s Chancellor Karl Nehammer said.

“But that alone is not enough,” he added.

The contrast was perhaps the most evident on two occasions where non-Western leaders voiced their understanding of Ukraine’s situation but cautioned for a more realistic approach.

“Kenya’s position is unwavering – Russia’s aggression against the country is unjust, unjustified, and is a violation of international law,” Kenyan President William Rutto told participants.

But this and any future forum “should not be a meeting of only friends and there should be both friends and enemies here,” Rutto said.

He added that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “illegal”, but the unilateral use of windfall profits from Russian frozen assets pursued by the West “is equally illegal”.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the kingdom was ready to assist the peace process, but warned that a viable settlement would hinge on a “difficult compromise”.

Some Western and Ukrainian diplomats involved in the summit talks said they feared that calls for Russia to be at the table would only get stronger over time while expectations for a ‘compromise’ on Ukraine’s side could rise.

One central ambition of the Swiss and Ukrainian co-organisers is to announce on Sunday which country would host a follow-up summit, meant to build on this one.

It also remains to be seen how many participating countries will actually back a final joint declaration.

EU IN THE WORLD

G7 RECAP | From frozen Russian assets and boosting support for Ukraine to Middle East peace and growing West-China tensions, G7 leaders had their work cut out when they gathered in southern Italy.

G7 negotiators struck a ‘provisional agreement’ on a loan plan based on the size of their economies to provide Ukraine with about $50 billion in aid, expected to start flowing by the end of the year, but precise terms are yet to be hashed out.

They also send a stark warning to Beijing, discussing how to protect their domestic industries from Chinese overcapacity without causing a trade war with Beijing and keep in check China’s alleged support for Russia’s military expansion.

And yes, the spectre of the EU top job also hung over the sunny Italian skies, with summit host Giorgia Meloni keeping cards close to her chest.

FLODERUS FREE | Swedish EU diplomat Johan Floderus and another Swede, Saeed Azizi, both held prisoner in Iran, have been released this weekend and are on a flight home to Sweden.

DEFENCE BRIEFING

OPT-OUT | After Hungary requested an exemption from military support to Ukraine in return for unblocking key alliance decisions, Budapest confirmed this week it would not hinder future NATO military aid to Ukraine, but was also promised the right not to take part in such efforts.

AID PACKAGE | NATO members discussed options for how to ringfence the alliance’s Ukraine support and training coordination, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, but in preparation for the July summit, a lack of concrete pledges remains.

SPENDING WOES | The EU’s increased defence spending priorities must not come at the expense of development aid, as this could risk isolating the continent geopolitically, the Commissioner for International Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen warned in an interview with us.

BALTIC THREAT | Stronger sanctions are needed to reign in the growing Russian threat in the Baltics, Baltic Sea states’ foreign ministers said this week, voicing concern about Russian hybrid threats and the unmarked oil tankers deployed to circumvent sanctions.

BUNDESWEHR SERVICE | After months of anticipation, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius unveiled a new military service model for Germany, announcing plans to recruit 5,000 conscripts annually starting in 2025.

WIDER EUROPE

25 JUNE | After weeks of wrangling, EU member states late Friday evening agreed in principle on the negotiating frameworks for the accession negotiations of Ukraine and Moldova. The Belgian EU presidency said it would call the first Intergovernmental Conferences (IGC) on 25 June, when European affairs ministers are scheduled to meet in Luxembourg.

WAR INVESTMENTS | A Ukrainian delegation aimed to convince hesitant businesses this week that the country is safe for investments despite Russia’s ongoing war, as the EU is hoping to boost its efforts with new business guarantees.

CSTO EXIT | Russian officials privately admit that their chances of preventing an Armenian exit from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are slim, government officials told our media partner The Moscow Times.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

Why China Is Sabotaging Ukraine [Foreign Affairs]
Mario Draghi’s Industrial Strategy For Europe [Geopolitique]
FT Investigation Finds Ukrainian Children On Russian Adoption Sites
Why Biden’s Gaza Gambit Is Likely to Fail [Foreign Policy]
What Will Become Of American Civilisation? [The Atlantic]
How Chinese-Russian Relations Are Playing Out In The Far East [Eurasianet]

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Informal EU top jobs summit dinner
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German Chancellor Scholz hosts Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Cavoli
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Ex-European Council President van Rompuy,
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UN Security Council meets on Ukraine
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Norway’s Gahr Store, Sweden’s Kristersson, and Finland’s Stubb meet to discuss civil and military cooperation
| Tuesday, 18 June 2024 | Bodo, Norway
Austrian World Summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends
| Thursday, 20 June 2024 | Vienna, Austria
Foreign Ministers of the ‘Friends of the Western Balkans’ meet at Europa Forum Wachau
| Friday, 21 June 2024 | Vienna, Austria