The Brief – Below the radar

It often happens that news flying below the radar ends up being quite significant. Case in point: The announcement that two dozen German soldiers arrived in Vilnius on Monday, with a further 150 due to join them later this year, barely made headlines outside Lithuania.

We will argue here that this is a significant development.

Germany is a heavyweight in the EU and even worldwide, but it has deliberately kept a low profile as a military power. It was a way to expiate its WWII guilt.

But Berlin, it seems, is no longer keeping a low profile.

“This is the first time that we have permanently stationed such a unit outside of Germany,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in Berlin at a farewell ceremony for the vanguard of Germany’s Lithuanian brigade, according to German news agency dpa.

Pistorius called it “an important day for the German army”.

Indeed, the number of soldiers who arrived in Lithuania is small, just laying the groundwork for a further 150 to join them later. But the deployment is expected to be up to its full strength of 5,000 by the end of 2027.

More importantly, these highly qualified military personnel will stay there permanently, with their families.

This means Germany will have a military base in Lithuania, an EU and NATO country bordering the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

A German base, not a NATO base, it is important to stress. Because who knows what will happen to NATO after the US elections?

A military base is like a city, with all kinds of civilian amenities like schools, kindergartens, shopping centres, and sports areas.

When a country like Germany has a military base in Lithuania, Lithuanians can be sure that, should their country be attacked by Russia, the Bundeswehr will be with them.

If Russia saw Lithuania as a military midget before, well, they should think twice now.

This may be the shape of things to come for the still embryonic and conceptual European defence.

France, Italy, and Spain, to name just the biggest EU countries after Germany, can follow Berlin’s example and set up national bases in other vulnerable countries.

The two other Baltic allies, Latvia and Estonia, are obvious choices.

But there is more. In terms of urgency, the most fragile state in the EU’s neighbourhood is Moldova.

Significant challenges arise from the pro-Russian forces in Moldova and a substantial Russian military presence there, posing as peacekeepers and controlling the separatist region of Transnistria. There is also the hybrid Russian control of the region of Gagauzia.

Unlike other EU hopefuls, Moldova has voiced no ambition to join NATO, and there are good reasons for that. Russia would see such ambition as a provocation and if it were not too busy with Ukraine now, it would invade Moldova as well.

And EU military aid to Moldova falls short because the EU is also busy with Ukraine.

Russia doesn’t say what its military ambitions in Ukraine are but Western pundits assume that Putin wants to take Odesa, leaving Ukraine without access to the Black Sea and establishing a land link with Transnistria.

If Russia manages to take Odesa, it could be argued that the West has let Moscow have its way in Ukraine.

At a time when French President Emmanuel Macron talks about sending “boots on the ground” in Ukraine at some point in the future, it seems more timely for Paris to discuss with Chisinau the possibility of stationing a contingent in Moldova.

As in Lithuania, this could start by sending a small advance party, with others to follow.

And then, without much fanfare, the European defence will be born.

The Roundup

The European Parliament (EP) approved its position on the EU’s first soil law during a plenary vote on Wednesday, deleting some provisions agreed upon by environmental MEPs .

Eurozone finance ministers are pushing trade higher on their agenda to ensure increased geopolitical focus on economic security and ‘de-risking’ strategies do not hinder their plans to shore up the bloc’s competitiveness.

The European Parliament voted in favour of enshrining the right to abortion in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union on Thursday, but its chances of succeeding are slim as it would require the green light from all 27 member states.

As the European Parliament is paving the way for a swift approval of the relaxation of some environmental requirements in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the 2023-2027 period, NGOs are mobilising against the decision. 

The EU’s overhaul of the power market design, sparked by the 2022 energy crisis, was approved by the  European Parliament, paving the way for new price stablisation rules to become law.

The European Parliament adopted a pioneering new law to reduce methane emissions in the energy sector on Wednesday, but the oil and gas sector quickly pointed to potential implementation problems.

The Canary Islands government requested a more in-depth impact study from the company behind the project to build Europe’s first-ever octopus farm, due to uncertainties overenvironmental consequences.

Spain, the United Kingdom, and the European Commission hope to reach a final agreement on the future status of Gibraltar “very soon”, perhaps as early as this Friday, Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs José Manuel Albares told Onda Cero radio in an interview on Thursday.

The European Parliament voted on Wednesday to approve a deal with national governments on a new carbon removal certification scheme.

Spain, the United Kingdom, and the European Commission hope to reach a final agreement on the future status of Gibraltar “very soon”, perhaps as early as this Friday Spain’s Minister of Foreign Affairs José Manuel Albares told Onda Cero radio in an interview on Thursday.

Members of the European Parliament voted on Wednesday on amendments to strengthen the enforcement of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), however, stakeholders urged for further improvements, particularly regarding complainants’ rights and cross-border matters.

To stay on top of EU elections and politics, check out this week’s EU Politics Decoded: Von der Leyen grilled monthly next term, EU Parliament vows.

Look out for…

• Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Luxembourg on Friday.
• Informal meeting of telecommunications ministers on Friday.
• Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas participates in Delphi Economic Forum.
• Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra in Germany, meets with Minister of Economy and Climate Action Robert Habeck on Friday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]