The Brief – China as a global peace broker?

Today, news agencies broke two news stories that are worth a closer look as both seem to indicate that China has ambitions to help solve the two wars at the gate of the EU.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a peace conference about the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas as he addressed Arab leaders and diplomats at a forum in Beijing. This came as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said China could arrange a peace conference where Russia and Ukraine would participate.

Let’s start by stressing that China’s diplomatic capacity should not be underestimated.

It surprised everyone last March, when Beijing brokered a deal restoring ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively, the two leading Shi’ite and Sunni Muslim powers in the Middle East.

But another bit of news today appeared to pour cold water over such ambitions. The US accused China’s leadership of supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, warning that Beijing could consequently face further sanctions from Washington and NATO countries.

How do we connect the dots? Is the US trying to prevent China from rendering precious services to the profit of our continent, at a time when EU diplomacy has apparently run out of resources?

China, a communist country and, by Western standards, a dictatorship, is better known for its “Wolf diplomacy”, a term coined from the title of a Chinese action film.

Wolf warrior diplomacy is aggressive and combative, with its proponents denouncing any perceived criticism of the Chinese government, its ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and associated policies, in the media and online, as well as using physical violence against protestors and dissidents.

In the case of the Gaza war and the Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, we are talking about a different type of Chinese diplomacy, the one characterised by its strategic long-term approach.

Since the late 1970s, China’s primary foreign policy goals have been to safeguard its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, and shape an international environment favourable to its modernisation. Ultimately, it aims to become the world’s number one power, possibly by 2049, the centenary of the Republic of China.

Of course, this is not to the taste of the United States, the top global power ever since it became the world’s most productive economy in 1890.

China’s official diplomatic principles are mutual respect for the countries’ territorial integrity and sovereignty (even more important in the context of Taiwan, considered by Beijing a part of China), mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality, and cooperation for mutual benefit.

Again, this is the official line, but in reality, China is pursuing its own benefits.

China’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being monitored in every small detail by a US government website, showing the importance Washington attaches to China’s diplomatic activities and plans.

Bejing has a 12-point peace plan which sounds very general but has the advantage of being backed by Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine welcomed it cautiously, noting the absence of conditions critical for Kyiv from the document, for example, the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.

Importantly, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Xi Jinping to attend the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland.

Ukraine and up to 100 countries are set to attend the peace conference at the luxury Burgenstock resort near the central city of Luzern on 15-16 June, hosted by Swiss President Viola Amherd.

For the war in Gaza, China has published a ‘Position Paper on Resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict’.

Xi Jinping pointed out that the fundamental way out of this conflict lies in the two-state solution, building international consensus for peace, and working toward a comprehensive, just, and lasting settlement of the Palestinian question, sooner rather than later.

During the Cold War, China developed deep relations with Palestine (the PLO and the late Yasser Arafat).

Today’s China no longer has such a sharp position, opposing Israel, but its policies in favour of Palestine – especially seen from the Israeli perspective – continue.

That said, Beijing has carefully avoided confronting Israel, a country where China has made serious investments, many of them related to the Belt and Road Initiative.

In both prospective peace talks, China is seen by the West as biased – in favour of Russia and in favour of the Palestinians. But this should not necessarily be a huge handicap.

Seen from a European perspective, Pax Americana seems to have reached its limits – it didn’t prevent the Gaza and the Ukraine wars and has no visible potential to end them.

If China can make a useful contribution to ending the two wars at our gates, this would be a game-changer of historic proportions.

This would also be in US President Joe Biden’s interest because he is certainly going to lose the elections if the war in Gaza is still raging by early November.

EU leaders cannot do much, but they should make sure that both Biden and Xi come to Switzerland and that the most important bilateral relation in the world improves. The rest will unfold behind the scenes.

The Roundup

Amid growing calls for economic sanctions against Israel in view of the worsening humanitarian toll of its military operations in Gaza, EU trade ministers briefly discussed the issue on Thursday but remained far from deciding on actual steps.

European Union countries greenlighted a sharp increase in tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain on Thursday in a move aimed at halting imports of these products to member states.

The Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) backed Google, Amazon, and Airbnb on Thursday in a lawsuit against the Italian Communications Authority’s request that they disclose company information.

Fast-growing broilers must be banned in the European Union for animal welfare reasons, the NGO Eurogroup for Animals said, while representatives of European poultry producers countered that this would necessarily lead to higher prices for consumers and environmental problems.

The German government said on Thursday it will remove a controversial surcharge on gas passing through the country which EU neighbours said added to the cost of moving away from Russian gas.

As Baku prepares to host COP29, the largest international climate summit, the Azerbaijani government has ramped up its crackdown on the remaining vestiges of its civil society.

Between Thursday (23 May) and Tuesday (28 May), more than €5.3 billion of funding for French industry was announced by the government and commercial investors, boosting the country’s drive to revitalise and decarbonise its industrial base.

To keep abreast of EU politics and election news, don’t miss this week’s EU Elections Decoded.

Look out for…

• Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová in San Francisco on Friday, meets with Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta.
• European Economic and Social Committee Plenary Session on Friday.
• Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni participates in Bilderberg Meeting in Madrid, Friday-Saturday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]