The Brief – Cordon sanitaire, uncordoned

The cordon sanitaire was once a non-negotiable electoral strategy that parties across the French political aisles implemented to block the far right from getting to power, but it is now shattered almost to the point of irrelevance.

2002 was a benchmark electoral year in France’s modern political history. Jean-Marie Le Pen, figurehead of the far-right Front national, made it to the second round of presidential elections in a turn of events few could possibly anticipate – and threw the country in a state of shock.

“In the face of intolerance and hatred, there can be no compromise,” the then-incumbent President Jacques Chirac, who was seeking re-election, said at the time: “Never have I accepted an alliance with the Front national in the past, whatever the political cost, and never will.”

He went on to win the second round with a Soviet-style 82.21% of the vote.

That was a different era, but it speaks of a time when the cordon sanitaire was such an obvious choice that it was hardly questioned. The far-right should never reach higher office, and voters would see to it.

Fast forward 22 years, and the cordon sanitaire – otherwise referred to by the French as the ‘Republican Front’ – is at risk of extinction, just as Le Pen’s party, now renamed Rassemblement national and led by his daughter, Marine, and her protegé Jordan Bardella, secured a historic lead in the first round of snap legislative elections.

The left ‘Front populaire’ coalition held a clear and unequivocal line: If their candidates make it to the second election round in third place, behind the far right and a pro-Macron candidate, they will drop out of the race in that particular constituency, come what may, so voters can rally behind the lesser of two evils.

Other political forces have much murkier stances.

President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition said time and time again during the campaign that the far right was their only true opponent – yet it spent so much energy vilifying the ‘Front populaire’ and its biggest party, the far-left La France insoumise (LFI), that it successfully turned them into the other side of the same “extremes” coin.

They also said that Ensemble candidates who make it to the second round of elections in third place, behind the far right and a left-wing counterpart, should drop out of the race – but only when the left candidate is deemed to respect “republican values,” whatever that means.

Some ministers and leading EU figures came out asking for a stronger anti-RN stance. Others, first and foremost Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, said they would only vote for Green, socialist, or communist candidates – but not La France insoumise.

This, in effect, amounts to eroding the very principles of the cordon sanitaire.

The conservative Les Republicains – Chirac’s political family – even went a step further by announcing they would give no voting instructions or ask their third-place candidates to bow out. The Front populaire is so “extreme,” they say, they’re not sure it is any better than the far right.

Meanwhile, the party’s top MEP, François-Xavier Bellamy – vice-chair and treasurer of the European People’s Party – made it clear that, if push came to shove, he would choose RN over the left.

That’s another severe dent to the cordon sanitaire.

Candidates have until Tuesday (2 July) 6 pm to announce whether they’re staying on or dropping out. The latest data from Tuesday afternoon shows that, out of 306 three-way contests, 213 third-place candidates have dropped out, including 128 from the left and a mere 79 from Ensemble.

And even if all dropped out at once, it doesn’t mean disappointed voters will turn out in droves to stop the far right.

Data from the 2022 legislative elections tell a more nuanced story: 48% of Macron voters whose candidates did not make it past the first round refrained from casting a ballot in the second round – rather than choose between the left and the far right.

The same was true for 45% of left voters when faced with a pro-Macron / far-right face-off in the second round.

Expect these numbers to go up as the far right has become more normalised than ever in political and media discourse, and voters are frustrated and tired of voting against, rather than in favour.

In a shift that would have been unthinkable until recently, even Macron himself is said to be ready for a coalition with the RN, Le Monde reported.

“He thinks that giving [the far right] half the power today will prevent them from having all the power in three years’ time [for the 2027 presidential election],” the newspaper quoted an official as saying.

This means the cordon sanitaire is no longer an obvious choice for voters and the political class – and it’s at risk of dying in plain sight. “People no longer believe in it,” top RN official Louis Alliot said on Monday (1 July).

He might very well be right.

The Roundup

Germany should take more responsibility for the security of the EU’s eastern border, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk told his German counterpart Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday as the two leaders met for the first intergovernmental talks in six years.

The next European Commission should have a “strong” commissioner for agriculture, to reflect the rising importance of food and farming on the political agenda, the president of COPA, the largest European farmers’ association, told Euractiv in an interview.

Ursula von der Leyen started talks with the Greens on Monday, following negotiations with Socialists and Liberals, as she enters the third stage of her campaigning to get the Commission presidency for a second term: winning over Parliament.

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) officially became the European Drugs Agency (EUDA) on Tuesday, expanding its advisory support for policymakers.

EU and NATO’s investment programmes announced, on Tuesday (2 July) they will partner to support funding in the defence sector and deal with industry’s demands to get more access to funds for innovation and production.

The European Commission plans to allow the providers of ChatGPT-like artificial intelligence (AI) models to write codes of practice that will determine their compliance in the short to medium term, with civil society in a consultation role.

The European Union needs to double targeted investment to meet its 2030 climate goal, a consortium of research organisations said on Tuesday, warning that the pace of Europe’s related action must accelerate.

Germany’s conservative CDU party understands the decision by the French conservative party Les Républicains – both members of the EPP – not to call for a cordon sanitaire if opponents from the far right or the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire face off in the second round of the French legislative elections, the CDU’s foreign policy spokesperson told Euractiv.

Look out for…

• Weekly meeting of the College of Commissioners on Wednesday.
• Commissioner Simson delivers keynote speech at Energy Transition and Green Hydrogen Dialogue meeting in Buenos Aires on Wednesday.
• Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič receives CEOs of member companies of Renewable Hydrogen Coalition.
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in EPP Group Study Days in Cascais, Portugal, on Wednesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]