The Brief — Enlargement à la russe

Vladimir Putin’s biggest – and wildest – project is to resuscitate the Soviet Union in some form during his lifetime. But he has a problem: No country wants to join the Russian Federation, not even Belarus, despite its vassal status.

Enlargement à la russe is what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine. The good news is that this type of enlargement doesn’t work because today, you cannot really force nations at gunpoint to become part of your empire.

Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus to the west, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia to the north, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus, and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia were all part of the Soviet Union. Now, they are sovereign countries.

The German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania were all satellites of the Soviet Union. However, it wasn’t their choice – this was the result of post-World War II division,  the infamous Yalta agreement.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Germany was reunited. Czechoslovakia split into Czechia and Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania recovered their sovereignty, as did Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia by leaving the Soviet Union.

All integrated into the West, joining NATO first, then the EU.

Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, the three former Soviet republics of the Caucasus and the five Central Asian countries gained their independence, staying out of the Western alliances.

Over time, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia set their sights on the EU. For a very good reason, Ukraine also seeks NATO membership.

For Putin, Russia made its biggest mistake in history by allowing all this to happen. His mission became to repair the damage done.

The 22 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg. Putin has bigger plans.

Fortunately, they were unfounded, as was his assumption that Ukraine would be conquered in a week or two and that NATO was an empty shell. Had Ukraine surrendered, the next on the list were Moldova, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. And then, if NATO continued to keep a low profile, the sky was the limit.

For Putin, it doesn’t matter if none of these countries sees Russia as a model and wants to be part of the Russian world. In his view, pro-Russian marionette regimes could be installed and function just as they did during the USSR.

Incidentally, it’s not Russia but the EU that nine ex-communist countries want to join: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia in the Western Balkans and Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia in the post-Soviet space.

But the EU doors have remained closed. Instead, year after year, these countries are subject to byzantine scrutiny.

The Commission has just adopted the “enlargement package”, the EU jargon term for the annual oversight of the progress these countries have made toward joining the EU. In truth, this exercise masks the lack of progress inside the EU itself in moving toward enlargement.

The sweetener is that from time to time, the Commission grants tokens to the EU hopefuls, such as the official candidate status or this year’s decision to propose opening accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

As the countries lose patience knocking at the EU’s door, this plays right into Putin’s hands. Russia’s most powerful industry is disinformation, and its major goal is to destabilise those countries, as well as some EU members perceived as vulnerable, to mention only Slovakia and Bulgaria.

Ursula von der Leyen took the reins of the EU executive with the promise of a geopolitical Commission. But the member states ultimately decide, and there is no geopolitical EU, unfortunately.

The Europeans must be crazy- this is what Putin must think whenever he gets reports that the EU is still dragging its feet on EU enlargement.

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The Roundup

Negotiators from EU countries and the European Parliament agreed on a landmark new law late on Thursday to restore at least 20% of Europe’s land and sea areas by 2030 and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050.

EU policymakers are butting heads over the principle of compliance by design, harmonisation of administrative procedures, and implementation deadlines, according to a compromise document on the short-term rental regulation, seen by Euractiv.

A technical meeting on the EU’s AI regulation broke down on Friday after large EU countries asked to retract the proposed approach for foundation models.

Following a 2021 judgement by the EU’s court of justice, Germany has boosted the independence of its federal grid agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, a move heavily criticised by the opposition.

If you are looking for more policy news, don’t miss this week’s Economy Brief and the Tech Brief.

Look out for…

• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with European Round Table of Industrialists in Stuttgart on Sunday.
• Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni participates in Vienna Economic Forum on Monday.
• Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels on Monday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/ Alice Taylor]