The Brief – Good times, bad times

For the West, the current phase of the Ukraine war is certainly a bad time. The situation may still be reversible, but the war fatigue that has set in is not helping.

One year ago, the West was confident that Russia would suffer enormously because of what was considered Vladimir Putin’s strategic mistake in invading Ukraine.

The Russian army had made a joke of itself, while the Ukrainians proved to be much better prepared than was initially presumed.

NATO grew stronger, with Finland and Sweden abandoning their traditional policy of neutrality, the EU gave a heartfelt welcome to Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children. More and more modern weapons were reaching Ukraine, which started preparing its counteroffensive.

But Moscow didn’t just stand and watch either.

In the meantime, Russia built strong defences at the frontlines, illustrated by the famous ‘dragon teeth’, boosted conscription, improved military techniques, including by widening the use of drones, and put its military industry on a wartime footing.

As a result, the much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive wasn’t really successful. What we see on the front now is more a war of attrition, which plays into the hands of Russia, a much bigger country with a lot of resources and patience.

Russia played its cards well in the international field, posturing as a victim of Western imperialism and a leader for the rest of the world. Putin’s current visits to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are an illustration that his prestige in the Global South is unharmed.

The unexpected Hamas attack on Israel, which triggered a full-scale war in the Gaza Strip, also played into Russia’s hands as it displaced Ukraine from international front pages. The result: The war in Ukraine is no longer at the centre of the world’s attention.

Ukraine’s leaders know that the current period is difficult because decision-making is difficult in a democracy.

Due to internal policy reasons (migration from Mexico), the US hasn’t been able to approve $50 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, while across the pond, because of a Hungarian veto, the EU may not be able to greenlight the much-awaited opening of accession negotiations with Kyiv.

Worse still, if Donald Trump makes a comeback to the White House next year, he could stop all military supplies and financing and even help to end the war on Russia’s terms.

And let’s be frank: If the US loses interest in Ukraine, the EU will never be able to fill the gap.

Putin knows this, and that could explain why he has been so aggressive towards Latvia: A few days ago, he warned Riga that it could face reprisals as a result of what he considers ill-treatment of the Russian minority there.

Russian reprisals against a NATO member sound like a very dangerous game.

The head of Poland’s national security agency, Jacek Siewiera, estimated that Russia could attack NATO countries within three years. He suggested that an attack could come on NATO’s eastern flank and estimated they had three years to prepare for a confrontation.

Poland is already investing a lot in its army, and so is Romania. However, the same cannot be said for Bulgaria, Slovakia, and possibly others.  

Clearly, the EU has no choice but to become a military power, which should become a pull factor for more integration among its members.

Putin bets that this is not going to happen. He bets that democracy is weak and European politicians are stupid and cowardly.

EU leaders could prove him wrong. As a first step, they have a chance to send the right messages when they meet in Brussels on 16 December.

The Roundup

The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, adopted on Thursday, aims to reduce permitting times for domestic mining and recycling projects but fails to create the broader conditions necessary for companies to make those investments, the industry says – a warning echoed by green activists.

Negotiations on the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) are expected to conclude on Thursday evening, with EU countries set to dilute a proposed mandate to make renovations mandatory.

The European Commission has made proposals for stricter rules on animal transport and pets, but campaigners have lambasted a number of loopholes, while large parts of the originally envisaged animal welfare overhaul have been left to the next mandate.

The European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy adopted on Thursday the draft report of the Cyber Solidarity Act, while the file keeps languishing in the EU Council of Ministers.

The latest compromise proposal on the EU’s seven-year budget review, which comes with large cuts and re-purposing of funds, has so far failed to convince member states, with time running out one week before a decisive EU summit.

EU lawmakers are a step closer to starting interinstitutional negotiations on the European Health Data Space (EHDS) regulation, with the Council agreeing on their position on Wednesday (6 December) and the Parliament due to vote on theirs next week.

As Russia announced on Thursday the date of the 2024 presidential elections, President Vladimir Putin and his closest ally banked on anti-Western rhetoric and on the assumption that Ukraine will become a ‘black hole’ for the US and its allies.

Don’t miss this week’s EU Politics Decoded: Orbán tests his veto power.

Look out for…

• Competitiveness Council (Research and space) meets in Brussels Friday.
• Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels Friday.
• Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels Sunday-Monday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]