The Brief – Hardline EU trio to confront Putin

We can only second-guess what Vladimir Putin’s goals were when he started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We can see that in the meantime, NATO has become bigger and stronger, and today, the EU may agree a lineup of new leaders considered “hawks” towards the Kremlin.

It’s always tricky when your regular column gets published hours before major decisions are taken. But we have learned from experience that even big decisions are never the end of the story.

Negotiators — involving the ‘big three’ groups, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and liberal Renew Europe — approved an EU top job package that would put incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen forward for a second term.

In the same package, former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa would become president of the European Council, and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas the EU’s new foreign policy chief.

In addition, Malta’s Roberta Metsola will continue as Parliament president, and there is no more talk of splitting her (and Costa’s) mandate in two.

Of course, this is only a proposal from the negotiators, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, whose party sits in the ECR group and wasn’t involved in the negotiations, has already cried foul.

But even if she (and Hungary’s Viktor Orban) vote against or abstain, a qualified majority of EU heads of state and government could nevertheless push through the package, at least in theory.

So what is interesting in the proposed lineup? At first sight, among the four names, three have won themselves a reputation as hardliners concerning Putin’s Russia.

Costa is the odd man out and he has even been reproached for being too mellow towards Moscow. But his job, if he gets it, is only to prepare and chair EU summits.

There is much more at stake in confronting Putin regarding the leader of the Commission, the chief of EU diplomacy, and the Parliament’s president.

If one thing unites the three ladies – Kallas-von der Leyen-Metsola (let’s call them KLM) – it’s certainly their gung-ho attitude toward Russia.

Estonia’s Kallas has been reproached for her tough stance, which some feel may raise doubts about whether she can represent views from across the bloc. In Russia, she has been on the wanted list since February for her role in removing Soviet-era monuments in her country.

Last February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocked von der Leyen from becoming the new head of NATO because he reportedly believed she would be too tough on Russia. He now supports her as EU Commission chief, but her stance hasn’t changed.

With or without US support, ‘we cannot let Russia win” in Ukraine, von der Leyen says.

As for Metsola, she has been criticised by an opposition politician in her home country, Malta, for “provoking” Russia by visiting Ukraine on Europe’s Day. She has been one of the very few European leaders to question the legitimacy of Putin after his re-election as president in a sham ballot.

The war in Ukraine and multiple photo opportunities with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy benefited the KLM trio, who projected an unequivocal message of staunch EU support for Ukraine.

The eventual confirmation of the KLM trio could also be interpreted as the union’s preparation for Donald Trump’s return to the White House – in terms of keeping the EU commitment to Ukraine alive, especially if some capitals, like Paris, become unpredictable.

This is not a bad thing. But of course, just by the power of their offices, the three iron ladies won’t make up for the billions of dollars worth of US armament President Trump could withhold.

If the trio take up their jobs, more commitment could be expected to help Ukraine and Moldova advance on their EU accession process (Georgia is in the freezer, sadly).

But while their confirmation is likely to spark enthusiasm in Kyiv and Chisinau, it remains to be seen what the mood will be in the European Parliament when MEPs cast their secret vote for or against von der Leyen.

The Roundup

EU leaders are expected to agree on a package deal on the EU’s top jobs and discuss the geostrategic and policy priorities for the coming years during a busy two-day summit on Thursday and Friday.

EU leaders arriving in Brussels on Thursday made last-ditch efforts to placate Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni but gave little indication that they will change the proposed EU top job package, which had been agreed without her.

National and EU experts are discussing new legally binding limits for acrylamide in food, EU sources told Euractiv, reopening a file that has sparked intense discussions.

Car manufacturers, energy companies and environmental NGOs have issued an urgent warning against revoking the EU’s 2035 de facto ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars ahead of the meeting of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday.

In response to the farmer protests that rocked Europe earlier this year, the governing parliamentary groups in Germany have agreed to introduce a relief package for the agriculture sector, amid dissatisfaction from farmers’ organisation.

Euractiv has seen the Hungarian EU presidency’s detailed plans for the Environment, Energy and Transport Council meetings in the second half of 2024, which outline when Budapest plans to advance individual existing legislative proposals, agree a COP29 position, and present its plans for geothermal energy,

As the European Union launches accession negotiations with Ukraine, Hungary’s presidency of the EU Council from 1 July  to 31 December risks stalling the process, with minority rights being the key point of contention.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, seeking a second term at the helm, has told EU leaders she is ready to boost the external dimension of the EU’s migration policy by considering outsourcing procedures and developing economic partnerships with neighbouring countries, according to a letter seen by Euractiv.

To stay on top of the political news in the aftermath of the European elections, don’t miss this week’s EU Politics Decoded.

Look out for…

• European Council summit on Thursday-Friday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]