The Brief – Is the EU losing Georgia?

Is it possible that a single piece of legislation could sway Georgia – an official candidate for EU membership since December – away from its EU path? And if so, does it mean that Vladimir Putin is winning back this Soviet republic, the birthplace of Stalin?

Triggering boisterous protests, Georgia’s parliament gave its initial approval on Wednesday (17 April) to a bill on “foreign agents”, which the European Union said risked blocking the country’s path to membership.

Georgia’s foreign agent law would label any civil society or media organisation that received at least 20% of its funding from outside Georgia as “organisations doing the bidding of foreign powers.” Such organisations would be subject to “monitoring” by the Ministry of Justice, and organisations that do not comply would be subject to large fines.

European Council President Charles Michel did not mince his words.

“Let me be clear: the draft Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence is inconsistent with Georgia’s EU aspiration and its accession trajectory and will bring Georgia further away from the EU and not closer,” he posted on X.

Critics compare the foreign agent bill to a law that Russia has used extensively to crack down on dissent among NGOs and independent media.

Russia’s influence in Georgia should not be underestimated. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has become an imperialist power for which territories such as Georgia should be vassal states or – if they resist – should be taken over.

Benefiting from the Black Sea coast, Georgia has historically been the favourite vacation venue of the Russian Empire and the USSR.

It is famous for its wines (Georgia claims to be the birthplace of winemaking) and for being the birthplace of Stalin, the dictator responsible for the deaths of millions in the Soviet Union, who was put back on a pedestal under Putin.

In Georgia, all political forces say they are pro-EU, but the ruling Georgian Dream of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, in power since 2012, has followed an increasingly pro-Russian course.

Georgia and Russia fought a brief war in August 2008, after which Tbilisi lost control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Today, Russia is building a naval base in Abkhazia, a clear sign that Georgia should forget about this territory.

There have been no formal diplomatic ties between Moscow and Tbilisi since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. However, direct flights between Moscow and Tbilisi resumed last year, and Russia lifted a decades-old visa requirement for Georgians travelling to Russia.

All these moves by Georgian Dream, which commands a supermajority of 90 MPs in the 150-seat Parliament, have triggered protests by the opposition and by President Salome Zourabichvili, who is at loggerheads with the government. Her post, however, is mostly ceremonial.

The opposition United National Movement (UNM), founded by Mikheil Saakashvili, is now in jail and has only 36 parliamentary seats. The rest of the opposition is badly fragmented.

Michel has invested considerable time and effort mediating between the government and the opposition, to no avail.

However, Michel has become popular in Georgia, and when he says that the foreign agent law “will bring Georgia further away from the EU”, this carries weight.

What is difficult to understand about Georgia is that a majority says they are pro-EU, but the pro-Russian Georgian Dream won all three consecutive elections. The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 26 October, and Georgian Dream hopes to win for the fourth time.

The 150-seat Georgian parliament is elected through a mixed system – 77 seats by proportional representation and the remaining 73 seats by single-seat majoritarian constituencies.

Georgian Dream has been able to win almost all single-seat majoritarian constituencies. This helped them garner 115 out of 150 seats in 2016, clearing the constitutional majority of 75%, while it had an overall vote share of 48.7%.

Under EU pressure, the election code was changed for the 2020 elections to a mixed system of 120 proportional and 30 single-seat majoritarian constituencies. But again, Georgian Dream obtained 48.22% of the vote and 90 seats out of 150.

The foreign agent law is designed to undermine the opposition before the October election. As the speaker of the Parliament explained, his party, Georgian Dream, has a problem in that NGOs “have a bias” for the Saakashvili camp and are “richer than political parties “.

The last claim should be taken with a pinch of salt because Ivanishvili’s party is rich, and the oligarch’s personal fortune is estimated at $4.9 billion.

The foreign agent law, also called “Russian law,” must pass two more readings before final adoption. The president is likely to veto it, but parliament is expected to override it

It is difficult to imagine what could stop the Georgian Dream from pushing through the ‘Russian law’ which will likely guarantee them another four years in power – during which time Putin will consolidate his control of the country.

Unless a miracle happens and Georgian voters realise what is at stake.

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The Roundup

Poland is ready to host nuclear weapons on its territory, President Andrzej Duda announced on Monday, confirming he had been in talks on the matter with the US administration during a recent visit.

After an unprecedented wave of protests and demonstrations across the EU, and with June’s European Parliament elections approaching, EU politicians of all colours are seizing upon the agricultural sector’s discontent for electoral gains. 

MEPs from left-wing groups in the European Parliament will try to make changes to the Commission’s proposal to relax some environmental requirements in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), to be voted on Thursday.

French EU Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned of the massive scale of disinformation campaigns coming from President Vladimir Putin’s Russia in an interview with Ouest-France on Saturday, speaking of a “proven risk” that this could distort the results of the EU elections in June.

Look out for…

• Informal meeting of health ministers, Tuesday-Wednesday.
• European Parliament’s final plenary in Strasbourg Monday-Thursday.
• Commissioner Kadri Simson delivered the opening remarks at expert meeting “The EU blueprint for fusion energy” in Strasbourg on Tuesday.
• Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni participates in Tuesday’s plenary debate on economic governance in Strasbourg.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]