The Brief – Looking back before we vote

One month before the EU elections, it is useful to look back and see how the nine previous votes have exemplified historical developments and the changing balance of power in our union.

The first European elections were held in 1979, as a series of parliamentary elections across the nine (at the time) European Community member states. They were also the first international elections in history.

This was done in accordance with the 1957 Treaty of Rome, which established the European Communities and specified that the European Parliament must be elected by universal suffrage using a common voting system.

The European Parliamentary Assembly first met in 1958 while the European Parliament, under this name, dates back to 1962. Until 1979, member states appointed members to the European Parliament from their national parliaments.

The 1979 campaigns varied. The former Social Democrat German Chancellor Willy Brandt took an international campaign to France, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands to boost the Socialist group. And it was the social democrats who won the largest number of MEPs (113, leaving behind the Christian democrats with 107).

This was the beginning of a centre-left domination that lasted 20 years.

France’s Simone Veil, a Holocaust survivor and women’s rights activist and politician best known for the 1975 law that legalised abortion, was elected as the first president of the elected Parliament and the first female president since it was established in 1952.

The 1984 European elections were the first to include new member Greece. The vote once again put the social democrats ahead with 130 MEPs, well ahead of the Christian Democrats, who obtained 110.

The 1989 European elections included new members Spain and Portugal. The social democrats advantage grew further to 180 MEPs compared to the Christian democrats, with 121.

The five years until the next European election in 1994 saw enormous political upheavals across the continent. These changes included the end of communism in Europe, German reunification, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Velvet Divorce in Czechoslovakia, and the breakup of Yugoslavia.

1994 saw another strong showing of the social democrats, who won 198 MEPs, followed by the Christian democrats with 157.

The 1999 European elections were the first where Austria, Finland, and Sweden voted alongside the older member states, having joined in 1995 and voted separately.

This election marked an upturn, with the Christian democrats winning over the social democrats by 233 MEPs to 180 and establishing a lasting supremacy that still stands to this day.

The 2004 European elections were the first after the ‘Big Bang’ enlargement with Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and Cyprus.

The number of MEPs was increased to 732 MEPs from 626 in 1999. The balance of power in the Parliament remained unchanged despite the 10 new member states. The EPP was the largest party with 268 MEPs, followed by the Party of European Socialists with 200 MEPs).

In 2009, a total of 736  MEPs, including from new members Bulgaria and Romania, were elected to represent some 500 million Europeans, making these the biggest trans-national elections in history.

The centre-right, now officially known as EPP, obtained 265 MEP seats, while the centre-left, known as S&D, got 184. The far-right ECR group was constituted.

The 2014 European election was the first in which the European political parties fielded candidates for president of the Commission.

The candidates, sometimes referred to by the German term Spitzenkandidaten, were Jean-Claude Juncker for the EPP, Martin Schulz for PES,  Guy Verhofstadt for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (ALDE), Ska Keller and José Bové jointly for the European Green Party, and Alexis Tsipras for the Party of the European Left.

The EPP won 221 seats, followed by S&D with 185, and Juncker became Commission president (EU leaders endorsed Juncker by a simple majority, with David Cameron and Viktor Orban voting against him).

The Spitzenkandidaten system, however, failed to work in 2019, when the EPP, with its lead candidate Manfred Weber, won again with 187 seats against 147 for the S&D.

Despite this, at Emmanuel Macron’s behest, EU leaders decided to nominate German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen as the new Commission president. The centre-left and centre-right parties suffered significant losses, while pro-EU centrist, liberal and environmentalist parties and anti-EU right-wing populist parties made substantial gains.

In February 2018, the European Parliament voted to decrease the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 if the United Kingdom were to withdraw from the EU on 29 March 2019.  However, the UK withdrew only on 31 January 2020, and it participated in the European elections.

It’s important to note that the Parliament approved von der Leyen as Commission president with a wafer-thin majority of 383 votes (374 votes needed) on 16 July 2019.

It was a secret vote, and many commentators believe that she may not have passed without the UK votes.

For the 2024 European election, political parties nominated their lead candidates: von der Leyen for the EPP, Nicolas Schmit for S&D, Marie-Agnes Stack-Zimmerman and Sandro Gozi for ALDE, Bas Eickhout and Terry Reintke for the European Green party, and Walter Baier for the Party of the European Left.

It remains to be seen how these candidates will fare in electoral debates and motivate voters. And it will be a daunting task for EU leaders to name a candidate who could garner sufficient support in the European Parliament to become Commission president.

From the historical perspective, this election is expected to be the most decisive, given the expected rise of far-right and anti-EU parties.

Against the background of two wars raging at the EU’s gates, compounded by a hybrid war of disinformation that benefits anti-EU forces, only one thing is certain: Abstaining should not be an option.

The Roundup

The European Commission announced on Monday its decision to close Article 7 against Poland, arguing commitments from the new Donald Tusk government have now addressed previously identified risks to the country’s rule of law.

A group of EU member states, led by Czechia and Denmark, are preparing a letter to the European Commission calling for migrants trying to reach the EU to be transferred to selected third countries before reaching the bloc’s shores – a procedure experts say is likely to be difficult to enforce under current EU migration law.

North Macedonia appears set to be on a collision course with its EU neighbours Greece and Bulgaria with double-header elections Wednesday (8 May) poised to return the country’s nationalist opposition to power.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in “Europe – transforming the future” of the 16th European Economic Congress in Katowice, Poland, on Tuesday.
• Foreign Affairs Council (Development) on Tuesday.
• Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council on Tuesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]