The Brief – No light at the end of the tunnel?

French far right lurches toward power. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary to lead the EU for the next six months. AfD states aim to govern Germany. Pro-Russian patriarch elected in Bulgaria.

In the US, Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance augurs his election route in November.

To many readers, these summary titles from 1 July may appear disturbing or even cataclysmic, but they are not surprising. All these developments were largely foreseen in the global or national context.

It looks like there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the European Union.

Moreover, it is worrying that all the enemies of the EU act according to their plan, while the EU is the victim because it is the only geopolitical entity obviously without a plan.

An illustration of this lack of plan and ideas is the agreement reached by national EU leaders to put forward Ursula von der Leyen for a second term at the helm of what appears to be the EU’s most powerful institution, the European Commission.

We have already argued that VDL is synonymous with ‘more of the same’. In a democracy, people re-elect a leader, be it a local mayor or a president, when they are satisfied with their performance.

The EU performance is far from satisfactory, be it in terms of competitiveness at the global scale or living standards as ordinary people perceive them. With this leadership, fixing the EU economy looks like a mission impossible.

The next step is the vote on the von der Leyen candidacy by MEPs in the European Parliament, expected on 18 July.

Although the outgoing Commission chief is supported by three mainstream groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals), which have 399 seats, 38 more than the minimum threshold, the vote is secret and the risk of rebel votes should not be underestimated.

Von der Leyen is, of course, aware of the risks and looks to be mobilising support from outside the mainstream – also from the far-right – but this may lead to substantial political compromises. And it may even backfire.

By rejecting VDL’s candidacy, the new European Parliament has the chance to send the signal – also to the world – that it is the most important European institution. The ball would then be in the court of EU heads of state and government, who should ensure their next proposal gets the support of MEPs.

Mario Draghi is the first name that comes to mind as a politician capable of garnering such support. At 76, though, he is not a young man. The second name that comes to mind is Thierry Breton, still dynamic at 69.

But anyway, it will be up to the European Council, not the Parliament, to make the choice.

We can only wish that the American democracy can come up with a better Democrat candidate in time for the November presidential election. But pundits explain that the process would be extremely difficult.

Europeans, in turn, have the chance to elect, much more easily, a leader of the European Commission who would inspire some hope ahead of the challenges we will inevitably face.

It’s in the hands of people we voted for – our MEPs.

The Roundup

The European Commission has dismissed China’s announcement that it could launch an investigation into the EU executive’s alleged misuse of anti-subsidy legislation, saying the framework fully respects business confidentiality rules.

Only four EU countries have submitted their long-term climate and energy plans on time, and the European Commission intends to remind them at informal ministerial meetings.

The European Commission accused Meta of violating its digital competition rules, the Digital Markets Act (DMA), in its “pay or OK” model, officials told Euractiv on Monday.

Taking up pending legislation on agrifood issues will require “political courage” in the next legislature, Agustín Reyna, the newly appointed director general of the European Consumer Organisation (BEUC), told Euractiv.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s top officials are showing deep divisions over the best way to fight the far right ahead of the snap elections’ second round, in a rare display of public disagreement within his team.

With a new far-right group, including Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party, on the horizon, the German far-right AfD has hopes of breaking out of potential isolation in the European Parliament after being kicked out of their previous group, ID.

Look out for…

• Weekly meeting of the College of Commissioners on Wednesday.
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in EPP Group Study Days in Cascais, Portugal, on Wednesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]