The Brief – No time for a honeymoon period this summer

After seven rollercoaster months, European politicians mostly resemble beat-up-birds these days. And they might not have much time to enjoy their ice-cold poolside drinks this summer. 

From G7 meetings and Ukraine’s Switzerland conference to the EU top jobs conclave, NATO consultations across the pond, and the last hurrah of the European Political Community gathering in the UK – European leaders have had quite the series of summits in their pockets over the last six weeks.

“The past few years, after Russia’s war on Ukraine, have very much seen an inflation of summits, and leaders or ministers were forced to do constant jet-set diplomacy – we’re exhausted,” one EU diplomat who attended all of those above told Euractiv.

“The problem is, this is our new way of doing things, it’s unlikely we will return to a slower pre-pandemic pace in the future,” the diplomat added.

Thank God that national and European political cycles now go on a summer break.

But while relaxing at sunnier and more peaceful shores, many will find themselves using their time to prepare for Europe’s next political term and potential storms brewing.

There will be three key issues that several EU diplomats and officials who spoke to Euractiv in recent weeks have flagged as the most fundamental for the bloc to address after the well-deserved break.

Number 1, unsurprisingly: How to keep EU unity and continue to support Ukraine.

EU unity on Ukraine has been holding up for 878 days now.

But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s recent controversial shuttle diplomacy to Moscow, Beijing and Florida has shown he believes there needs to be an alternative path.

His pitch for Europe to work with Donald Trump to end the war would, for most European leaders, mean leaving Ukraine alone and Europe at risk of Russia’s future ambitions.

“No matter if Orbán truly believes what he does is right or whether he’s playing someone else’s game – this is a step we as Europeans simply cannot take without becoming the play-thing of either the Russians or the Americans,” a second EU diplomat said.

The challenge after summer for EU member states and the new EU team will be to reign in rogue solo initiatives while ensuring Europe has a seat at the table.

Number 2, more pressingly: How to address Trump 2.0, and not only him.

While former US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House in November now looks more likely than ever, Europeans have been discussing how to Trump-proof their transatlantic ties for a while now.

But since last week, it is clear that should he win, they will have far more to face than only a rogue president.

Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance, spells trouble for Europe and Ukraine, with diplomats on this side of the Atlantic fearing increased US isolationism.

It could mean a drop in US aid for Ukraine, a push to force Kyiv into peace talks with Russia, and a US pivot towards Asia that would leave Europeans to figure out things for themselves.

After four years of good EU-US relationship under President Joe Biden, some might have become used to a calm and friendly tone from Washington.

“Let’s not kid ourselves, Biden often asked us for similar things, like with China, the difference was the tone and constructive approach,” a third European diplomat told Euractiv in Washington.

“With Trump, we will need to relearn how to properly play hardball and stand up for our interests,” they added.

First glimpses have been already seen in the past two weeks, both at NATO and at the EPC summits, with Europeans having stepped up their defence efforts and EU-UK looking to reset their relations.

French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters defiantly on Thursday that Europe’s leaders would work with whomever the American people choose. Let them come, we’re ready.

Number 3 might be a more fundamental one: How can Europe walk the talk?

Having secured approval for her second five-year term, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will have to use the summer break to compile her College of Commissioners.

While the hope is that the new Commission can kick off on 1 November, it might not be an easy ride, with many new roles to fill and candidates to face grillings in a more polarised European Parliament.

However, besides the personality issues, the main challenge for the EU’s new institutional team will be how to come up with the financial means to re-industrialise and re-arm the bloc.

New schemes and programmes won’t do the trick unless the EU puts its money where its mouth is.

The Roundup

Read our latest policy briefings:

The Tech Brief: Verdict on TikTok, Von der Leyen’s promises

The Agri Brief: UK clears lab-grown meat for pet food amid heated EU debate on food innovation

The Economy Brief: Money talks: Von der Leyen’s winning pledges for Europe

In other news

While the European Union remain largely oblivious to blockchain technology, despite its potential to plug gaps in the bloc’s digital ambitions, a large-scale crypto conference took place in Brussels last week, the first of its kind.

Britain’s new Labour-led government touted a post-Brexit ‘reset’ with the EU and closer cooperation in Europe to advance support for Ukraine and tackle illegal migration.

Younous Omarjee (GUE/NGL, FR) was elected vice-president of the European Parliament on Tuesday, 16 July, a first for a racially diverse MEP from an outermost region, and he aims to bring the voice of peripheral areas to the heart of the European institutions.

Look out for…

• EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels
• Informal meeting of justice and home affairs ministers in Budapest
• Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit meets President of the European Investment Bank Group Nadia Calviño
• European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas meets with Imanol Pradales Gil, President of the Basque Government
• Crisis Commissioner Janez Lenarčič receives Kamina Johnson Smith, Jamaica’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Rajnish Singh]