The Brief – One for the money, two for the show

Blame and reprimands followed Viktor Orbán’s “Ukraine peace tour” to Moscow and Beijing, which he started as soon as Hungary took over the Presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 July.

Orbán is misleading many by suggesting that he represents the entire EU in this initiative.

Of course, Orbán doesn’t represent the EU. The role of the Council presidency is of a much more technical nature. For example, the country assuming the presidency chairs meetings of the different Council configurations, with the important exception of the Foreign Affairs Council.

For the same precaution, the so-called “trio of presidencies” was institutionalised – to shoulder a weaker, inexperienced or problematic member state into fulfilling its duties without rocking the boat.

This was one of the safeguards after the big bang enlargement of 2004-2007.

Those who decided on the rules of the Lisbon Treaty wanted to limit the powers of individual countries assuming the presidency role. Their fear was precisely the hypothesis that regimes like Orbán’s could one day be tasked with the EU presidency.

They were right.

The Lisbon treaty entered into force in December 2009. Orbán took power in May 2010 and ever since, he has taken measures to secure his power forever.  Who knows what the future holds for him and the EU.

As regards his “peace tour”, we believe Orbán is misleading the public opinion, in Hungary and abroad. The general public doesn’t read the Maastricht and the Lisbon treaties.

But we don’t think he can mislead his foreign counterparts. Any regime, be it in Russia or Beijing, has professional advisers who know the EU inside out. One of their jobs is precisely to identify its weaknesses and make use of them.

Of course, for the Russian propaganda, Orbán is “our man in the EU”, who is now in charge. For Putin, who can usually only meet Eurasian dictators, to pose for photos with the representative of the EU is a bonanza.

But now we are arriving at the more important question. Why is Orbán doing this?

The short answer is simple: Because he can.

Maybe the time to talk about peace has not arrived. But is there any other EU leader capable of embarking on a similar initiative?

The leaders of the EU institutions worry about their jobs.

Ursula von der Leyen has anxieties whether MEPs will confirm her as Commission president for a second mandate. Charles Michel is uncertain if the Belgian federal government will be able to give him a ministerial job after his term as Council president expires later this year.

Emmanuel Macron should normally be the first among equal heads of state and governments. But he has self-inflicted himself such a handicap with the snap election he called (and lost), that he isn’t even sure if he can propose the name of the new French commissioner without unleashing a storm of criticism.

Olaf Scholz is weak domestically, wrestling with a disparate coalition government, and undecisive on the foreign front.

Most of the other heads of state and government lack the calibre, or have domestic issues to worry about.

Meloni is in better shape, but she is probably right to hold her horses at this stage. She needs to become stronger in the EU, and for this, she doesn’t need to be suspected of making eyes at Putin.

Orbán took the driving seat because it was empty.

And let’s not dismiss Orbán’s chances of achieving something, especially if Donald Trump, who famously called him “leader of Turkey”, returns to the White House.

Russia is in a bad shape and Putin has interest in putting a temporary end to this catastrophic war he personally started. The next peace conference, whether we like it or not, will be in the presence of both Zelenskyy and Putin.

Should we be surprised then if the only European sitting at the table then will be Orbán? Should we be surprised if he drafts the agenda of the talks, bringing to the discussion issues like the rights of minorities in Ukraine under the future settlement?

And he is not doing it only for the show. For Orbán, it’s first for the money.

Peace conferences are also about financing and reconstruction, and Orbán will be in pole position to carve out his share in terms of contracts.

This also means bringing more corruption into Ukraine. But who cares?

The Roundup

Today and tomorrow (11 and 12 July) the Hungarian Presidency will host an informal meeting of Environment Ministers in Budapest, where they will discuss COP29, the circular economy’s potential to boost competitiveness and water scarcity.

The Conference of Presidents is set to discuss Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s recent controversial trips to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing in a meeting on Thursday (11 July), even considering possible repercussions, Euractiv has learned.

Monika Beňová, a Slovak MEP for Robert Fico’s Smer-SD (NI) party, proposed ending negotiations with the Party of European Socialists (PES), which suspended the party’s membership last year, claiming she would instead present a “different plan” to her colleagues.

Germany plans to largely exclude Chinese components such as those from Huawei and ZTE from its 5G mobile network by 2029, with an interim step in 2026, according to a media report.

With the right in flux, increasing fragmentation of the political landscape in member states, and the need for von der Leyen to secure a governing majority in the European Parliament, group formation has never looked so messy. See our latest infographics on how the formation of the new European Parliament party groups are going.

Look out for…

• Informal meeting of environment ministers in Budapest, 11-12 July 2024
• European Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová speaks at the Common Law Society 2024 Summer School, in Czechia.
• European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič meets with Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of Croatia, in Zagreb.
• European Commissioner Didier Reynders participates via videoconference in the Eurojust and U.S. Department of Justice Meeting on Stopping the Illicit Flow of Sensitive Technology, in Brussels.
• The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) is holding a conference titled “Leaving No One Behind: European Commitment to Rare Diseases” in Brussels.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Rajnish Singh/Alice Taylor]