The Brief – The Crocus falsification

After the rigged Russian elections, Vladimir Putin is now presenting a fake narrative about the terrible terrorist attack that struck Moscow last Friday, pointing the finger at Ukraine and ignoring the obvious Islamic State signature.

The West did the right thing by expressing its shock and compassion to the people of Russia following the attack on the Crocus concert hall in Moscow.

Similar Islamist attacks have taken place in the West, the worst being the attack on the Bataclan Theatre in Paris on 13 November 2015, in which the terrorists killed 90 people.

A branch of Islamic State – the Afghan-based ISIS-Khorasan – claimed responsibility for Moscow’s attack.

After a 20-hour silence, Putin made a TV appearance vowing revenge but didn’t mention the Islamic State. Instead, he alleged Ukrainian involvement, something emphatically denied by officials in Kyiv.

“They were trying to hide and were moving toward Ukraine,” Putin said, referring to the four men who carried out the attack and who the Kremlin said had been captured in western Russia.

“Based on preliminary information, a window for crossing the border was prepared for them by the Ukrainian side.”

The place where the perpetrators were arrested is close to both Ukraine and Belarus, but Putin discarded evidence that they were heading to Belarus.

There can be no doubt that the terrorists represent Islamic State, especially after the jihadist group posted a video filmed by the perpetrators themselves, shouting “Allahu Akbar”.

The Russian side published a video of what appears to be an interrogation at the place of the arrest in which an alleged terrorist says he was offered 500,000 roubles (roughly €5,000) to carry out the attack.

The Russian authorities are obviously seeking to dismiss the Islamic State’s responsibility, suggesting that the perpetrators were paid by Kyiv.

It is strange, to say the least, how the terrorists of alleged Tajik nationality managed to travel to Moscow with their arsenal.

It is baffling how they entered the concert hall unhindered and met no resistance from security guards during their rampage, how easily they set the building on fire and how they left the place and drove three hundred kilometres before being captured.

This is an illustration of how much Putin’s regime is overwhelmed by the war it started in Ukraine. So much so that it is unable to provide security for its citizens from terrorist attacks, having completely discarded the danger from Islamic State, and in particular ISIS-Khorasan.

Russia is very vulnerable to this group because many of its members are Tajik. Hundreds of thousands of citizens of Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic bordering Afghanistan, live in Russia.

Just three days before the Moscow attack, Putin dismissed the US warning of a potential imminent terrorist attack as “open blackmail” and “an attempt to frighten and destabilise our society”.

In any democratic country, so many failures would lead to high-level resignations and public scrutiny of the shortcomings. But in totalitarian Russia, Putin points the finger at the wrong enemy.

Perhaps he has no other option. Or perhaps he wants to avoid having to explain that by attacking Ukraine without a reason, he has depleted his country of resources to fight terrorism.

Putin’s Russia is not a superpower. At best, it can be described as ‘bardak’ (mess, bordel). This is why the terrorists had their way so easily.

Russia intensified its missile attacks on Ukraine soon after the terrorist attack, hitting the Western Ukrainian region of Lviv, with one Russian cruise missile flying over Polish territory for 39 seconds.

This may be only the beginning of bigger strikes. The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, said that all the Ukrainian state officials will be eliminated if their involvement is established.

Knowing how easily Russia fabricates “evidence” (as was the case with the Kerch bridge attack, when the Russian secret services cobbled a fake Bulgarian trail), President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian leaders have a reason to believe they could be the target of missile strikes.

As some sources suggest, Putin could also take advantage of the public outcry and call for the mobilisation of another 300,000 troops.

Still, Russia and the West have a common enemy, and the Crocus terrorist attack could have been a reminder that they should collaborate in the fight against ISIS.

Instead, as a result of Putin’s fake narratives, there is reason to believe that the concert hall tragedy will mark another milestone in the scaling up of the Ukraine war.

But chasing the wrong enemy could also destabilise the regime and even cause Putin’s Russia to collapse.

The Roundup

The European Commission is opening non-compliance investigations into Alphabet,  Apple, and Meta under the Digital Markets Act, the institution announced on Monday.

Five years ago, Germany and France created the world’s first binational parliament, but as relations between the countries’ two leaders remain rocky, lawmakers remain hopeful it can stop the situation from worsening.

The European Investment Bank dealt a major blow to the nuclear industry at last week’s International Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, when it dithered over the industry’s request for more funding for nuclear projects, but confirmed that investment in renewable energy will remain a priority until 2030.

Slovakia’s former pro-Western foreign minister, Ivan Korčok, scored a surprise victory in the first round of the presidential election but the road to final victory over Prime Minister Robert Fico’s coalition partner, Peter Pellegrini, will not be smooth.

Look out for…

• Agriculture and Fisheries Council on Tuesday.
• Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič participates in high-level event on ‘Towards a climate-neutral and resilient society in 2050’ on Tuesday.
• High-level conference on future of EU Health Union organised by Belgian EU Presidency on Tuesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]