The Brief – The cunning state of Azerbaijan

A few months ago, we described Qatar as a “cunning state”. Cunning means the quality or skill of being clever at planning something to reach your goals, even by tricking others. Lately, it has emerged that Azerbaijan has also resorted to cunning strategies to punch above its weight.

Two recent events put Azerbaijan under the spotlight. Let’s start with the most recent one.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev met with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi just minutes before the latter took off in a helicopter which crashed, killing all onboard. The occasion was the inauguration of a dam between the two countries, but the meeting was unusual because the relations between the two countries are complicated for several reasons.

Scholars put the population of Azerbaijanis in Iran at between 12 million and 23 million—more than the population of Azerbaijan proper, which is 10 million. Tensions exist inside Iran because Iranian Azeris support Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, while Tehran officially sides with Armenia—because Turkey is Iran’s regional rival.

In particular, if the Nakhchivan corridor is built, it would connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave and also with its ally Turkey, giving Ankara a transport springboard to implement some of its ambitious pan-Turkic goals.

Another big reason is the special relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel, Tehran’s arch-foe. Israel calls Azerbaijan a “strategic partner” as Israel’s arms-for-energy trade with Azerbaijan has reportedly become a pillar of Israel’s national security strategy.

More importantly, Azerbaijan provides logistics to Israel to spy on Iran.

As the Israeli daily Haaretz wrote on 11 April, “the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship relies on an unholy trinity of oil, arms, and intelligence”.

Israel buys oil from Azerbaijan (about half of Israel’s crude oil originates there) and sells it advanced military equipment. In return, Azerbaijan reportedly gives it access to its land and sea border with Israel’s number one rival: Iran.”

Some commentators have hinted that Israeli intelligence officers were discretely present at the site during Raisi’s visit. Others have suggested that possible Israeli foul play in the helicopter crash should not be dismissed.

Israel has a tradition of never claiming authorship of even its most daring and successful covert operations.

Is the death of Raisi the result of such an op? It’s probably better not to know the answer – because a straightforward response could trigger a major war.

Another recent cunning play by Azerbaijan unfolded in a very remote location and involved an EU member – and not just any EU member.

France has accused Azerbaijan of meddling in its Pacific territory of New Caledonia by supporting independence movements there and spreading disinformation.

France’s Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has stated that Azerbaijan, along with China and Russia, is interfering in New Caledonia’s internal matters. “This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” Darmanin told the France 2 TV channel, emphasizing the seriousness of the allegations.

The French government points to the sudden appearance of Azerbaijani flags at independence protests by the indigenous Kanak people and the backing of separatists by groups linked to Baku.

A French government source mentioned a “pretty massive campaign” on social media, with around 4,000 posts aimed at inciting violence and mistrust.

In 2023, Azerbaijan set up the so-called “Baku Initiative group”, with the participation of representatives from various French territories seeking independence, aiming to support anti-colonial movements against France. It may be ignored abroad, but the Azeri press churns out statements from this “organisation”.

Why has Azerbaijan suddenly become so fraternal with New Caledonia in its presumed anti-colonial fight?

The answer is simple.

France, the home of a large and influential Armenian diaspora, is siding with Armenia in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Baku has officially accused Paris of “stoking new wars” by arming Armenia and has snubbed mediation with French participation.

Azerbaijan is a totalitarian state whose covert actions resemble the Kremlin playbook against French interests in Africa. New Caledonia is only an episode, we haven’t seen the end of the story.

What has the EU done about Azerbaijan’s provocative behaviour? The answer is nothing, absolutely nothing. The EU is eager to import more Azeri gas, and its leaders prefer to ignore it.

Let’s not forget that Qatar, the other cunning state, tried to buy the services of several MEPs with wads of cash, but the EU took no action against Doha and sees it as a partner of utmost importance.

This also echoes Azerbaijan’s past behaviour – the Azeri Laundromat – which saw billions laundered through Europe and into the pockets of politicians and institutions to curry favour.

This is the new Realpolitik with the cunning states – just don’t say you have not been warned.

The Roundup

French President Emmanuel Macron should arrive in troubled New Caledonia on Tuesday night to set up “a mission”, a government spokesperson said, as the situation in the French overseas territory in the South Pacific remains tense following a week of protests, with blockades in certain areas of the capital city Nouméa.

While operating a heat pump remains quite expensive in large parts of Europe, a report by the EU’s official research body identifies three EU  well suited to heat pumps, thanks to their competitively priced electricity when compared to gas.

Europe must leverage EU-level public spending to jump-start strategic cross-border business and  “take the edge off” private investments that might otherwise be deemed too risky, said Eva Poptcheva, a member of the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

A European travel tech industry group filed two separate complaints on Tuesday to French and Belgian data protection authorities over Ryanair’s use of biometric data, according to a press release shared with Euractiv.

Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine, European arms and defence stockpiles are running low, and the bloc’s industry is hesitating to invest in more production capabilities.

In Finland, security issues dominate debate three weeks before the European elections, where the centre-right government, allied with the far-right, has not ruled out cooperation with the ECR in the European Parliament.

Look out for…

• Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni delivers video message at Rome Investment Forum 2024 on Wednesday.
• Commissioner Johannes Hahn receives Nicola Beer, vice-president of the European Investment Bank, on Wednesday.
• Competitiveness Council (Space, research and innovation) on Thursday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]