The Brief – The dinner of frustration

In psychology, frustration is an emotion arising from perceived obstacles to fulfilling one’s will or goal. In EU politics, frustration is today’s special.

A peace conference was held in Switzerland over the weekend with the aim of putting an end to the horrendous Russian aggression against Ukraine, but peace is no nearer as it takes two to tango, and Russia wasn’t invited.

To add insult to injury, from Moscow, President Vladimir Putin made unacceptable “peace proposals”, equivalent to a threat that things may worsen, and a dozen countries from the so-called Global South refused to sign up to the final communiqué.

Meanwhile, tonight, EU leaders meet for dinner in Brussels to agree on who will head EU institutions for possibly the most important five years as humanity decides its future, wrestling with galloping climate change, geopolitical instability, and the rise of artificial intelligence.

But we don’t know what the future holds for France and Germany, regarding who will be running the two most important EU countries over the next few years.

The family photo from the G7 meeting in Italy, combined with each of the seven leader’s disapproval ratings, says more than a thousand words. Each is beset with a plethora of problems.

The personalities of the Commission and the Council chief are important, but it is just as important to know who will be calling the shots in the biggest EU countries and, therefore, also in the EU Council.

A peace conference without peace in sight, new leaders of the EU institutions without certainty over the leadership in the capitals: This is not very reassuring for the wider public.

The EU resets every five years, which is intended to be a healthy democratic process. However, every election campaign is also a golden opportunity for anti-EU forces to peddle their toxic messages.

Very often, the pro-European candidate has better arguments and is more capable of defending them. According to the media and analysts, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal was better than his opponent, Jordan Bardella, in the final TV debate. But the viewers—and later, the electorate—gave advantage to the candidate of the Rassemblement national.

The European elections were inconclusive because they did not lay the ground for a political reset of the EU, but this may come after the second round of the snap parliamentary elections in France on 7 July.

Macron threw a bombshell by calling snap elections. And who knows if Germany may follow suit?

Although the next German federal election is scheduled for October 2025, following the crushing defeat of Germany’s governing coalition parties in the EU elections, high-profile opposition figures are urging German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to follow in Macron’s footsteps and call snap elections, which he is almost certain to lose.

Scholz’s SPD (S&D) and its coalition partners, the liberal FDP (Renew Europe) and the Greens, won a combined 30.4% of the vote on 9 June, barely more than the winner, the centre-right CDU/CSU (30%), won on its own.

Regarding agenda-setting, upcoming national elections in France and Germany could amount to a second round of the European elections.

The real EU reset is unlikely to happen at tonight’s dinner, even if the leaders will likely agree on the three names.

EU leaders appoint the Council president, but they only nominate the Commission president, who must be put to vote in the European Parliament and can be approved or vetoed.

This, of course, augurs for interesting parliamentary debates about the hypothetical positions the Commission president might take when faced with adversity. Opposing the far right of fraternising with it? That is the question.

But if the procedure unfolds as usual, the European Parliament would, this time, have to vote on a Commission president without knowing the bigger picture.

Wouldn’t it be fairer and wiser if the European Parliament waited with its vote on the Commission president until the dust settled following the French elections?

The German idiom “die Katze im Sack kaufen” literally translates as “to buy a cat in a sack”, meaning going for something without really knowing what it is. Will MEPs buy a cat in a sack?

We’ll find out soon.

The Roundup

A majority of EU member states gave the final green light to the Nature Restoration Law on Monday during a Council meeting in Luxembourg, marking the last step for one of the Green Deal’s most controversial files.

The Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) is seeking to file criminal charges against Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler for abuse of office following her vote in favour of the controversial nature restoration law in the EU Council on Monday.

China has opened an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and its by-products from the European Union, a step that appears mainly targeted at Spain, the Netherlands, France and Denmark in response to curbs on its electric vehicle exports.

The European Commission said it was “not worried” by Beijing’s announcement on Monday of an anti-dumping investigation into the bloc’s pork exports, in an escalation of trade tensions with the bloc.

Following validation by member states on Monday, the ‘High Seas Treaty’ strengthening the protection of oceans now has the full support of the EU, however many countries across the world still need to ratify it, before it can be applied in a year.

As EU leaders meet on Monday evening to discuss the bloc’s top institutional jobs after the European election, a quick ‘political agreement’ might be on the cards.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, Executive Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, and Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius take part in EU-China High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue on Tuesday.
• General Affairs Council (Cohesion) on Tuesday.
• Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport) on Tuesday.
• Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová speaks at European Partnership for Democracy (EPD) annual conference on Tuesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]