The Brief – Things can only get better, or why the UK is turning left

As the United Kingdom and France go to the polls in the next few days, we look at why the British public is turning left, towards Labour, at a time when Europe is turning towards far-right parties.

The British go to the voting booths on Thursday (4 July), with opinion polls showing Keir Starmer’s Labour Party on track to win a massive majority in the UK Parliament.

The standing of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party is so low that there is even talk of Labour winning a historical super majority of 200+ seats, returning to power after 14 years in the political wilderness.

Tomorrow, of course, has historical echoes of 1997, when the party led by Tony Blair was voted into power, with the pop song ‘Things Can Only Get Better’  – the anthem of the party’s campaign – rising up the charts. Labour regained power after 18 years, on a wave of popular support endorsing change, and Blair.

It is this same desire for change that is propelling the party towards power again. Even though Starmer’s ratings are not high, people are so fed up that they want to give the opposition a chance.

From the hallowing out of public services following the financial crash, to the fallout of Brexit, COVID lockdown, energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the current anaemic economic growth made worse by the cost of living crisis – after 14 years of what has been described as chaos, Cool Britannia went to Frail Brittania.

During this period, the Conservative Party went through five prime ministers, starting with David Cameron, who initiated Brexit, and ending with Rishi Sunak. In the middle was ‘Strong and Stable’ Theresa May, ‘Get Brexit Done’ Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss, whose premiership of 50 days was infamously outlived by a lettuce.

Voters understood that many of the challenges the UK faced were beyond the government’s control.

But what was unforgivable was the litany of self-induced mistakes and scandals, including parties in 10 Downing Street while the country was forced into lockdown during COVID.

And Liz Truss nearly crashed the economy when she put forward a radical free-market mini-budget that spooked the financial markets so badly that the British pound plummeted, global investment dried up, and mortgages went up.

The Truss budget disaster undermined any confidence in the Conservatives that they can be trusted with the economy.

This is what Starmer and his Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, are now ruthlessly exploiting. From being the party of the workers and the unions, Labour has dropped socialism to become social democrats, going out of their way to court support from businesses and the financial markets.

In the run-up to the vote, the need for economic growth has been front and centre of the campaign. Labour has told voters they recognise that major change and investment is needed throughout the country, but this can only be achieved by growing the economy.

With a laser-like focus, they have refused to be distracted from their key message and be drawn into debating controversial issues like Brexit, the Israeli-Gaza conflict, climate change, or even discussions over transgender rights.

Starmer and his team want to be seen as the ‘adults’ who are competent at running the country, compared to the Conservatives, who are just interested in power and fighting among themselves.

Labour has also pushed hard to shed any notion they will be a tax and spend government once in power, to the frustration of those on the left wing of the party.

In previous elections, taxes have been the Achilles heel of their campaigns. But this time, Sunak has failed to land any punches when he raised this issue in the televised debates.

With the Conservatives moving more to the right, especially on migration and cultural issues, Labour has filled the space in the centre, promising to offer balanced and  realistic solutions, though this is boring and uninspiring for progressives and the media.

In many ways, Starmer’s job is similar to the England football manager Gareth Southgate: Everybody has an opinion of what they should do. But as long as they win the big prize, who will care how they got there?

The Roundup

NATO members agreed on Wednesday to continue supplying Ukraine with €40 billion worth of military aid for next year, in a bid to give the country long-term reassurances, Euractiv has learnt.

Europe’s Socialists and Democrats are set to double down on their calls for social guarantees and solid public support to tackle ongoing economic challenges, proposing in their draft action plan a batch of additional revenue streams for the bloc’s funding resources.

Greece’s former minister of agriculture Lefteris Avgenakis has been sacked from the ruling New Democracy party (EPP) after a video circulated on social media showed him attacking an airport worker in Athens.

One day before the preliminary application of tariffs on electric cars from China, due on Thursday, Germany’s main car industry lobby VDA called on the EU to pull back on the tariffs, arguing that they will do more harm than good.

Renewables developer Luxcara sealed a contract on Tuesday that will see 16 Chinese wind turbines installed in Germany for the first time, adding fuel to EU industry fears of being overtaken by competition from abroad.

For more policy news, check out this week’s Green Brief and the Health Brief.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Kadri Simson holds meeting with Argentine energy companies in Buenos Aires on Thursday.
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in EPP Group Study Days in Cascais, Portugal, on Thursday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]