The Brief – Ursula von der Leyen’s green 420

On the hunt for lawmakers to bolster her chances at a second term at the helm of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen may end up taking the Greens to the ball – because, in their own words, they offer stability. It is a story of Germans working with Germans.

As of the time of writing, the traditional European Parliament alliance of the centre-left S&D, liberal Renew, and centre-right EPP holds 399 seats. 

With 720 total lawmakers, that should be enough to provide a majority for any would-be Commission president. The problem is the unknown number of potential deserters: Some, like the Irish liberals, have already openly stated their intention to vote against her.

Failing to get a majority before Parliament would irreparably damage von der Leyen.

So her strategists calculate with a 15% margin of error, drawing from lessons learnt in 2019 when she barely scraped through. Meaning at least 420 “guaranteed” lawmakers are mathematically needed to be sure. 

Aside from the top job ballet taking place in Brussels this week, the question on everyone’s mind is: Who will Europe’s most powerful woman take to the ball in Strasbourg?

Will it be Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s ultra-successful post-fascist superwoman, looming large over her nationalist ECR? Or will it be the battered Greens, reeling from the loss of swathes of popular support?

In the end, it looks like the Greens will be the ones to get the German politician past 420.

This is how things could go down:

The ECR came out of the EU elections far weaker than expected – and is far from united.  Including them would also see some S&D delegations refuse to join in. Don’t expect Italy’s centre-left PD to be seen voting alongside Meloni’s lawmakers.

It would also give the centre-left a convenient reason to demand additional concessions – already, the EPP is outflanking the S&D in the fight for EU top jobs. The socialists want their pound of flesh.

“This is our red line,” said Olaf Scholz’ man in Brussels, René Repasi, after the top job package was provisionally adopted on Tuesday (25 June).

Things look good for the Greens – and they know it.  

“We are ready to start negotiations,” the Greens co-leader, the Dutchman Bas Eickhout, said on Monday (24 June).

It is the latest statement in a chorus of green lawmakers expressing a desire to heave von der Leyen unto her throne – in exchange for some shiny concessions.

“We are ready,” said the Greens’ Rasmus Andresen, the group’s man for the budget who hails from Germany, promising a “stable majority”. 

Unlike the fractious right-wing, the Greens have stood strong even in the face of massive electoral losses, they argue. 

In part, the group has been so stable because it is thoroughly dominated by Germans: They make up more than a quarter of the group – no other faction is as nationally dominated.

This matters to Björn Seibert, von der Leyen’s right-hand man and head of cabinet, who’s braved the waters of German coalition building alongside her for years.

Another German, EPP strongman Manfred Weber, could be the main reason for the Greens not to be part of VDL’s 420 – after all, he campaigned against the Greens and their beloved “Green Deal.”

Still, Weber met his green counterpart, the fellow German Terry Reintke, for a 30-minute chat on 11 June. Other conversations are said to be taking place.

Some Greens expect he can be swayed by concessions – and EPP lawmakers are already developing the terms for the Greens. 

Peter Liese, another German MEP and the EPP’s point-person on environment, told Carbon-Pulse that climate targets will be “untouchable” but other parts of the Green Deal, like the bloc’s recently adopted anti-deforestation law, may have to go. 

German Greens are used to making concessions to enter into coalitions with the centre-right, and they may well accede. And tell their voters the recently adopted hollowed-out nature restoration law was a big win for the environment anyway. Big enough to throw some principles under the bus.

The Roundup

The European Union formally launched accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on Tuesday (25 June), starting a long process that could once again redraw the geopolitical map of Europe.

EU ministers failed to reach unanimity in their conclusions on the future of agriculture at a meeting on Monday due to a disagreement on the issue of the equalisation of the level of aid between member states.

Neither the European Union’s overall response to the 2022 gas crisis nor its joint purchasing push delivered clear benefits, the bloc’s auditors have concluded in a report released on Monday.

The European Commission said in a formal ‘statement of objections’ on Tuesday (25 June) that Microsoft had violated EU antitrust rules by bundling its Teams app with its Office 365 and Microsoft 365 productivity suites.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán opposes the way majority countries are handling discussions over the division of the EU’s top jobs, adding it is excluding others, according to comments made during a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who, for her part, remained silent.

To stay on top of all transport-related news, do not miss this week’s Transport Brief.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Helena Dalli delivers keynote speech on occasion of Europride, in Thessaloniki, Greece, on Wednesday.
• Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski in São Paulo, Brazil, at Global Agribusiness Festival.
• Commissioner Iliana Ivanova delivers keynote speech at Nexus 2050: The International Tech Pulse in Luxembourg.
• Accession conference with Montenegro on Wednesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]