The Brief – Who needs a weak France?

The announcement by President Emmanuel Macron that he is dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap elections caught me (and the rest of the world, probably) by surprise just two minutes before I went live on TV on Sunday night.

I was in the European Parliament preparing to comment on the overall preliminary results of the European elections.

I had prepared the punch lines to deliver the message that there were no surprises because the opinion polls had predicted everything – including the huge rise of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement national in France and the bad results for Macron’s Besoin d’Europe list.

I was going to say that, with a majority of 400 MEPs representing the pro-European forces, the rise of the far right in some EU countries should not hugely impact the European Parliament.

Then came the news from Paris – and I changed my discourse completely.

Macron took a huge gamble with his move, which represents a potentially fatal risk for him personally but also for Europe.

There was no apparent reason why the French president had to resort to this. France’s constitution doesn’t require such a reaction, and my French friends tell me no one had expected him to take such a step. Macron had personally denied time and time again that the outcome of the EU elections would have any repercussions on French politics.

Under the French constitution, the president can decide to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new legislative elections. This is meant to get out of stalemates where the Assembly cannot decide on a clear political direction.

But this possibility is seldom exercised – there have been only five instances in modern French political history where the national assembly was dissolved.

The last one was by President Jacques Chirac in 1997, following the plummeting popularity of Prime Minister Alain Juppé.

However, Chirac’s plan backfired as the newly elected majority was opposed to Chirac, and he was forced into an uneasy ‘cohabitation’ with political opponents and a hostile prime minister.

The French still keep bad memories of the cohabitation.

So, what the hell does Macron hope to achieve?

Unlike the European elections, held under the proportional system in one round, for legislative elections in France, the two-round voting is used, hence the two dates, 30 June and 7 July.

In the past, this has helped “mainstream” parties keep at bay the Le Pens, first the father Jean-Marie, then the daughter Marine. Whenever a far-right candidate made it to the second round, the centre-right and the centre-left teamed up to kick the odd man out.

This was the case until the June 2022 elections, when Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 89 seats, compared to just seven in the 2017 election. The glass ceiling was broken. The “odd ones” were no longer seen as odd.

How will the political players team up before the 30 June first round?

Against the National Rally at 31-32% and the other far-right party, anti-immigration Reconquête, whose lead candidate was Marine’s nephew Marion Maréchal, at 5-6 %, what pre-electoral coalition can Macron hope for?

The centre-right Republicans (7%) have apparently already said they would not be on board, which leaves few options.

Perhaps Macron wants the far right to win the executive power so that the French finally realise that far-rightists may be good at mobilising people at electoral rallies but are very bad once in office. And thus avoid Marine Le Pen becoming the next president of France in 2027?

With all the political and economic costs that having a far-right government would entail in between.

We don’t have the answers, but a few things are clear.

First, Macron has been crucially weakened at a time when the EU’s top jobs will be negotiated – an extraordinary summit dedicated to this will be held on 17 June.

It was Macron who proposed Ursula von der Leyen for Commission president five years ago, but she apparently no longer enjoys his support. With a weakened Macron, von der Leyen seems to have better chances to get the job again — and more freedom to team up with Italy’s hard-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Even more importantly, Macron and France are weakened in the global context.

The French president had made bold announcements supporting Ukraine, including sending instructors and warplanes and signalling that there may come a time for ‘boots on the ground’, but will he be able to keep such commitments?

Will a prime minister like Le Pen’s point man, Jordan Bardella, sign up to Macron’s Ukraine policy?

Back in 2014, Marine Le Pen famously got a €6 million loan for her party from a Russian bank. The embarrassing borrowing has reportedly been paid back. But there are signs that she personally – and her party – have some affinity for Vladimir Putin.

And it’s Putin who needs a weak France.

Europeans may fail to notice, but France is by far the most important country in the EU, especially with a weak German chancellor and a German economy paying the price of many mistakes made in the recent past.

With its permanent seat on the UN Security Council, its nuclear arsenal, and its overseas territories in all the world’s oceans, France is the global power Putin aims to weaken and thus debilitate the EU – and we have seen many attempts lately.

Moscow will be watching the vote in France closely, due to the French leadership’s “extremely unfriendly and even hostile attitude to our country”, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

I will never forget this election night. Quel bordel!

The Roundup

Around 90 countries and organisations have registered to take part in the Ukraine Peace Summit hosted by Switzerland next weekend, the Swiss government confirmed on Monday.

The results of the European Parliament elections suggest a swing towards the centre-right, but it is too early to determine if there will be a second term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Monday morning.

The newly-formed AfD EU delegation has decided not to include controversial leader Maximilian Krah, implicated in several scandals, in a bid to rejoin the far-right ID group that expelled it last month.

With votes cast in the European elections, EU leaders are expected to start already on Monday with informal deliberations on how to distribute the four European top jobs. Here’s a run-down of what to expect over the next week.

Portugal’s prime minister Luis Montenegro, whose rightist coalition won a general election in March, said on Sunday he would back former centre-left Socialist premier Antonio Costa if he decides to run for the European Council top job.

With a strong performance of her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is ready for the second part of her reappointment battle.

Germany’s self-proclaimed ‘progressive coalition’, consisting of Social Democrats, the liberal FDP and the Greens, suffered a crushing defeat in the European elections, as the parties barely managed to reach a combined share of 30%.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Janez Lenarčič in Amman, Jordan; participates in Gaza Humanitarian Summit on Monday-Tuesday.
• Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič participates in Hydrogen Council event in Germany on Tuesday.
• Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home affairs) on Thursday.
• Summit of G7 leaders in Italy Thursday-Saturday

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]