Tories could be knocked into THIRD in Blackpool South by-election as sources say Labour 'are a shoo-in for victory' and Reform could have outperformed expectations - as counting gets underway

Rishi Sunak is set for more misery with Labour confident of winning the Blackpool South by-election as vote counting got underway tonight.

Sir Keir Starmer's party are expected to gain the Lancashire constituency to add to a string of recent by-election victories over the Tories.

A result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning, but Labour sources were confident of a win as ballot papers arrived to be counted at Blackpool Sports Centre.

They said party activists had reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they'd be voting Labour for the first time.

There was even the possibility of further humilation for the Prime Minister with Reform UK not ruling out the prospect of coming ahead of the Tories.

A senior Reform source told MailOnline there was a chance the party could sneak ahead of the Tories and take second place in the by-election.

They described Labour as a 'shoo-in' for victory after the party's election 'machine' had descended on the Lancashire seat and the Tories had 'given up'.

But, asked about Reform's prospects of coming ahead of the Conservatives, the source said: 'If you'd have asked me yesterday, I'd have said no chance. Now I'm not 100 per cent certain.'

They added that the party had enjoyed a successful day at polling stations but faced a 'mountain' in trying to overcome postal ballots.

'We will be pleased if we do better than Wellingborough,' the source added, as they referred to the party's best-ever by-election result in February.

This saw Reform snatch 13 per cent of the vote share in the Northamptonshire seat, with the Tories winning 25 per cent.

Blackpool South has been held by the Tories for 57 of the 78 years it has existed as a parliamentary constituency.

Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris accepted the seat was likely to be lost by the Tories.

The Northern Ireland Secretary said it was 'going to be a tough seat for us to hold' given the scandal which led to it.

He told the BBC: 'You are highly unlikely to be rewarded by the electorate. Electorates do not like by-elections being put on them because of a failing like that.

'From the very start I would have expected to lose Blackpool South.'

Labour chair Anneliese Dodds, the Labour Party chair, said the Blackpool South contest - held on the same day as council and mayoral elections across England - was the 'key election'.

She told Sky News: 'The key election when it comes to looking at the overall strength of Rishi Sunak against the Labour Party is of course that by-election in Blackpool South.

'It is a critical place of course because of course in 2019 the Conservatives won almost 50 per cent of the vote, so it will be really important to see what happens there.'

A Labour victory would be a seventh by-election loss for the Tories against Sir Keir's party while Mr Sunak has been PM.

The contest was prompted by the resignation of former Tory MP Scott Benton from the Commons after he was caught up in a lobbying sting.

The Conservatives won the Lancashire seat at the 2019 general election, with Mr Benton as the party's candidate, with a more than 3,500-vote majority.

But Labour overturned significantly greater Tory majorities in recent by-election contests in Kingswood, Wellingborough, Tamworth, Mid Bedfordshire and Selby and Ainsty. 

Mr Benton was suspended by the Tories in April last year after being caught up in a fresh Westminster lobbying row.

An undercover investigation by The Times newspaper saw Mr Benton filmed saying he was prepared to leak market sensitive information to a bogus investment fund.

He also offered to lobby ministers on behalf of gambling investors - who were actually newspaper reporters posing as business representatives - in exchange for payment.

After having the Conservative whip withdrawn, Mr Benton subsequently sat in Parliament as an independent MP.

In February, MPs approved a motion to suspend Mr Benton for 35 days after he was found to have breached Commons rules.

This triggered a recall petition in his Blackpool South constituency, which had been due to expire on 22 April after opening on 12 March.

But Mr Benton resigned from the Commons before the conclusion of the recall process, as he escaped the embarrassment of being kicked out of Parliament by local voters.

He said was resigning now, ahead of the scheduled end of the recall petition, to allow a new candidate 'time and space' to campaign against Labour.

The Tories then scrambled to hold the by-election on the same day as council, mayoral and police and crime commissioner contests across England and Wales.

This was seen as an attempt to try and dampen the impact of a humiliating loss in Blackpool South amid the local election results. 

The Commons Standards Committee, which recommended Mr Benton's long suspension, had judged his actions to be an 'extremely serious breach' of the rules.

Mr Benton appealed against both the finding and the suspension, but an independent panel upheld the Standards Committee's original decision, saying there had been 'no procedural flaw' in the process.

He said he was 'deeply disappointed' with the outcome, describing the findings as 'unjust'.

He also moaned that taxpayers would be forced to fund a by-election contest just months before a general election contest in Blackpool South, at an estimated combined cost of £600,000.