Tripling renewables: European G7 leaders need to turn words into action

Italy, with backing from European leaders, needs to secure a robust commitment from the G7 to raise its collective target to a tripling of renewables capacity by 2030. 

Dr Katye Altieri is an electricity analyst at global think tank Ember

At last year’s COP28 climate change conference the world agreed to triple global renewables capacity by 2030, a commitment spearheaded and celebrated by European leaders.

The goal means increasing global renewables capacity from under 4 terawatts at the end of 2022 to 11 terawatts by the end of 2030. This week’s G7 Ministerial on Climate, Energy and Environment hosted by Italy will undoubtedly discuss the global tripling of renewables, presenting an opportunity to establish a meaningful target for G7 countries. 

Ember’s analysis shows that collectively G7 countries are only targeting a doubling of renewables by 2030. Analysis by Climate Analytics finds that mature economies – including the G7 – are required to triple in aggregate their renewables capacity to align with the global goal. For the G7, that leaves a shortfall of 0.7 terawatts to achieve the required tripling. 

Last year, the G7 agreed targets for solar and offshore wind. However, onshore wind was overlooked, which is an area of untapped potential and has seen much slower growth in recent years than solar and offshore wind.

And it is not just renewables deployment that the G7 needs to accelerate, investment into grids and storage will also need to grow substantially to enable the integration of the required amount of renewables into the electricity grid.

Individually, none of the G7 countries are currently targeting a tripling of renewables by 2030. European countries generally fare better, with Germany planning to increase renewables by 2.5 times from 2022 to 2030, the UK by 2.3 and Italy by 2.2, according to Ember’s tracking of renewables targets.

However, France is only planning a 1.8 times increase and is facing pressure from the European Commission to increase its renewables targets, with its own grid operator saying that a tripling is required. Across the EU, national plans still fall short of the ambition needed for REPowerEU.

Other G7 members are also falling short of the required ambition. Japan is planning to increase renewables by just 1.7 times. Canada has no target as yet; its Canada Energy Regulator shows a rise of just 1.2.

The United States is projected to grow 2.7 times according to NREL, but there is no target in place to ensure this will happen. Italy can use its role as the G7 host to unite all members in stepping up their ambitions.

The G7 has a crucial role to play in leveraging higher ambition in the rest of the world, in part by providing financing and technical support to emerging economies. The Italian G7 has presented a vision for the summit to connect with the global south, with African and Latin American leaders set to join.

The tripling goal does not mean that every country is required to triple. With large hydro resources, many Latin American countries are already well ahead of the global average and so a tripling would not be feasible, but nonetheless they need to ensure that renewables deployment keeps pace with rapid growth in electricity demand.

Many African nations have yet to unlock their renewables potential, and the African Union’s Nairobi Declaration set out a vision for a fivefold increase in renewables capacity provided there was sufficient financing and support. The global south leaders joining the G7 this year will be looking to Italy for its leadership on this. 

The opportunity ahead

In this crucial year, Italy – and other European members – should seize the opportunity to build momentum for raised action worldwide. A tripling of global renewables capacity is certainly achievable, but it needs more accountability for who contributes what. 

The G7 needs to set a precedent and commit to a tripling of its own renewables capacity. Italy, supported by other European G7 leaders, should secure clear wording to ensure the G7 itself commits to a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030.

This could be done at a technology level, by building on last year’s announcement of solar and offshore wind goals for 2030. Onshore wind would benefit from a goal of its own, and the G7’s current ambition on solar would likely need to be raised. As solar plays such a large role, a battery target to help integrate solar may also be desirable. 

The G7 must also play its part in unlocking untapped renewables potential in the global south. Key to this is developing an action plan to support renewables development in emerging countries to bring to COP29, where this subject will likely be top of the agenda. 

Tripling renewable capacity is the single biggest lever to tackling climate change this decade, and the G7 – led by Italy – has an important opportunity to be the first to turn this vision into reality.