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Trump continues to lead Biden in two key swing states in poll conducted after the hush money verdict... but is Joe closing the gap?

5 months ago 39

By Nikki Schwab, Senior U.S. Political Reporter For Dailymail.Com In Washington, D.C.

Published: 18:58 BST, 7 June 2024 | Updated: 20:55 BST, 7 June 2024

Former President Donald Trump continues to have an edge over President Joe Biden in two key swing states - Nevada and Arizona - but a national poll conducted after the Republican's conviction shows the presidential race tightening. 

Fox News put out new poll numbers Thursday that showed Trump up 5 points in Arizona among registered voters - 51 percent to Biden's 46 percent. 

In nearby Nevada, Trump was also leading Biden by 5 points - 50 percent to the Democrat's 45 percent. 

Polling has shown Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona for more than a year, while Trump has been out in front of Biden in Nevada since November, according to Real Clear Politics' polling averages - and the verdict didn't seem to move the numbers.

In the two swing states, voters' views on the hush money verdict were nearly identical.

Former President Donald Trump (left) continues to have an edge over President Joe Biden (right) in two key swing states - Nevada and Arizona - but a national poll conducted after the Republican's conviction shows the presidential race tightening

Pollsters asked just two questions on the trial - whether voters thought it was fair and how much it mattered to them - the latter to signal whether it would change people's votes.

In Arizona, 63 percent said the hush money trial did not matter, while only about a third, 36 percent, said it did. 

Additionally, only 25 percent expressed that it mattered to them 'a lot.' 

While this could be enough to swing things back to Biden, the overall numbers don't reflect that yet. 

In Nevada, 65 percent said the hush money trial did not matter, while 35 percent said it did. 

In both states, 51 percent said they believed Trump received a fair trial, while 46 percent said the Manhattan-based trial was unfair. 

The New York Times on Wednesday had a clearer picture of whether any damage was done to Trump by the guilty verdict, when 2,000 voters were recontacted after being surveyed in April and May.

When The New York Times and Siena College recontacted 2000 voters from their spring survey, pollsters found that former President Donald Trump's 3-point national lead shrunk to just 1 percent post-guilty verdict 

The verdict did change some of these people's minds.

Originally, the New York Times/Siena College surveys found that 48 percent of these voters supported Trump while 45 percent backed Biden. 

But after Trump was found guilty on all 34 courts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, pollsters found that 47 percent supported Trump, while 46 percent backed Biden. 

Trump's 3-point lead nationally shrunk to just 1 percent. 

The Times/Siena College polling found that Trump retained 93 percent of those who said they'd back him in the previous survey. 

But shedding 7 percent of your voters could make a difference in a tight race.  

Of those 7 percent, 3 percent said they would now be backing Biden, while the other 4 percent say they're undecided on who they'll vote for in the fall. 

Those shifting away from Trump were young, nonwhite, disengaged and Democratic-leaning - in essence non-traditional Republican voters who are now having second thoughts.

About a quarter of Biden's 2020 voters who told the Times' pollsters they were going to back Trump this time around and have now come back into the fold, the new survey showed.

Additionally, so-called 'double haters' - voters who dislike both the Republican and the Democratic candidate - were more likely to bail. 

Since last week's verdict, Trump lost about one-fifth of the 'double haters' who previously said they would hold their nose and support him in the fall.  

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