Two years in, European Political Community struggles to stay relevant

As some 50 European leaders gather in the UK on Thursday (18 July) under the helm of the European Political Community, it is increasingly clear that the format is struggling to justify its existence.

When the leaders descend on Blenheim Palace, a picturesque castle near Oxford in southern England, organisers hope they will be inspired by the birthplace of wartime UK leader Winston Churchill.

The summit aims to provide participants with the opportunity to “discuss some of the most pressing generational issues facing Europe,” the UK’s Foreign Office said in a statement announcing the gathering.

“The UK government will use the summit to discuss closer collaboration to tackle illegal immigration and greater security cooperation with European counterparts to keep Britain safe,” it added.

What deliverables?

The previous three editions of the gathering had always offered the host country the opportunity to showcase itself or a topic close to its leaders’ hearts.

Newly elected Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose government has announced the aim to “reset” relations with Europe eight years after Britain voted to leave the EU, will use the sidelines to improve contacts with EU counterparts.

The UK and the EU are currently looking into holding their first-ever post-Brexit bilateral summit in the coming months and advance work on an EU-UK security partnership, people with knowledge of the talks said.

Despite the formal roundtable discussions on migration (led by Italy and Albania), energy cooperation (EU and Montenegro), and defending and securing democracy (France and Moldova), Russia’s war in Ukraine and European security are expected to dominate the talks.

For the first time, representatives of NATO, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Council of Europe will be in attendance.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to rally support among European countries beyond the EU27 bloc, but beyond symbolic photo-ops, expectations of concrete deliverables remain low.

A more tangible discussion can be expected on Russia’s hybrid threat, with leaders expected to discuss and prepare the publication of further evidence that Moscow has sought to undermine democracies across Europe, from funding interference in elections to physical attacks on European soil, according to people familiar with the summit preparations.

And after the Washington NATO Summit and the US electoral campaign throwing shadows on Europe, leaders are also likely to address what a second Trump presidency could mean for Europe.

Struggling for relevance

Launched in 2022, the ECP was the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, meant to provide a platform for political dialogue and cooperation while including countries aspiring to join the EU and those happy remaining outside the bloc.

But officials who were part of the previous three editions have increasingly started questioning the feasibility and relevance of the format, which has so far only vaguely defined its purpose.

Some critics initially dismissed it as a vehicle to slow down EU enlargement and keep countries such as Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the Western Balkans, in the waiting room.

However, with Russia’s war on Ukraine likely to remain a long-term threat and a growing sense of global instability, the format has somewhat gained merit in becoming a forum for informal crisis talks.

But the lack of any formal structure, such as permanent staff or a secretariat, and only limited deliverables, make it hard for many in attendance to argue they have achieved something in the talks.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to skip for the second consecutive time. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is absent as she faces a confirmation vote in the European Parliament the same day.

“For now, everyone is showing face and presence, with some exceptions, but since there is no actual voting or decision-making involved, it is likely that some countries in the long-term will weigh whether to attend,” one European diplomat told Euractiv.

Sideline talks and bilateral opportunities are widely seen as valuable, many European diplomats say. For them, the informal character helps to address more divisive topics or use those informal talks for conflict resolution.

But the looming question over the UK summit will be for leaders to decide how to proceed with the format.

Over the past year, some European diplomats have floated the idea of reducing the frequency of meetings from every six months to once a year. In addition, the format’s next edition might face another, more political challenge: Hungary.

While the host of the EPC summits alternates between EU and non-EU countries, the former usually takes place in combination with an informal European Council meeting organised by the rotating EU presidency, currently held by Hungary.

The next meeting is therefore slated to take place in Budapest in November.

However, several EU countries are currently boycotting Council meetings chaired by Hungary over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Ukraine diplomacy, and the level of participation for the back-to-back EU and EPC summits remains uncertain.

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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