Ukraine is a country steadily bleeding out

Over five million Ukrainians who fled the country after the Russian attacks seek job opportunities in European countries like Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. But the high benefits for refugees could run counter to the Ukrainian government’s interest in encouraging them to return home, writes Markus Ziener.

Markus Ziener is a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.

As Ukraine has entered its second winter of war, the picture that emerges is both encouraging and depressing.

Encouraging because the will to have a Ukrainian future of its own is so palpable. Wherever possible, Russian destruction is being repaired at lightning speed, factories are being rebuilt, homes repaired, and impact holes filled.

In Chernihiv, a two-hour drive north of Kyiv, the boss of a textile factory is proudly showing me how he has fixed the roof of his company, which was completely damaged by a missile strike during the 35-day siege of the city in early 2022.

In Irpin and Bucha, suburbs of Kyiv that are associated with senseless destruction and brutal massacres by Russian forces, it has become difficult to find places that are a reminder of the orgy of violence.

As if the country does not want to look back, only the future seems to count.

However, there is also another side. After almost 22 months of war, Ukraine not only has to deal with a stalemate on its military frontlines with Russia. The country also has to cope with a significantly diminished workforce and an ever-louder cry for labour.

The boss of the textile company in Chernihiv is urgently looking for employees, the head of a local University is looking for teachers and students and the chair of a state institution for civil servants in Kyiv is lacking thousands of co-workers.

With over five million Ukrainians living abroad, these people are desperately missed at home. Before the war, the country had over 40 million people, today there are just around 32. Millions of Ukrainians live abroad, either permanently or temporarily.

And the longer the war continues, the more unlikely it is that they will return. Why? Because they don’t want to go back to a country that can’t guarantee security.

But also because the refugees have settled into their new homes abroad and – at least in the case of Germany – are equipped with a comfortable financial cushion.

The majority of the ones who fled took residence in countries like Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. Although it was self-understood to grant refuge, in particular to mothers with kids, there is also a selfish reasoning at play. Germany, for example, is already short of labour.

With demographics that will send millions of baby boomers into retirement over the next decade or so, the lack of labour will only get worse.

No wonder that the migrants from Ukraine were well received in Germany. They bring with them a high level of education and willingness to work. The enthusiasm to see them return to their home country is therefore limited.

Making them stay abroad is even enhanced by granting generous benefits paid for by the German government.

In Germany, Ukrainians are eligible to receive a so-called citizen’s allowance.

In the case of a single parent with a child aged between 14 and 17 years, they can get €502 per month for the parent and €420 for one child and accordingly, if there are more children to take care of. Plus, there is the possibility of receiving money to cover housing and heating.

Around 700,000 of the over one million Ukrainian refugees in Germany are currently receiving citizen’s allowance. The German minister of finance, Christian Lindner, calculates that in 2024 he will spend up to €6 billion to cover the expenses for Ukrainians alone.

At the same time, the noble benefits have not yet led to a high rate of employment. So far only 20% of the Ukrainians are working in jobs that are subject to social security contributions.

In the Netherlands, half of the roughly 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have a job, in Denmark 74 percent and in Poland 66 percent.

Those countries are handing out significantly less aid. The extent to which money and social benefits play a role in this can be seen in Poland.

Since Warsaw announced that it would cut benefits for refugees from Ukraine, hundreds of thousands have moved westwards, many of them to Germany. Unlike in the first year after the war began, there are now more Ukrainian refugees living in Germany than vice versa.

In Ukraine, however, this generosity is viewed critically.

Anyone who speaks to representatives of the Ukrainian government or social organisations hears one request above all: “Don’t overdo it with the payments to refugees. The more you give, the less chance there is that our people will come back.”

The fear is widespread that even more Ukrainians could turn their backs on their homeland. “If the West is seriously interested in a stable Ukraine in the future, they should do what they can to bring back our labour force.” They believe that handing out big benefits is counterproductive to helping Ukraine.

So the question is: Are we helping Ukraine the most by making it particularly easy for refugees to remain abroad? Wouldn’t it be much more helpful if we prepared Ukrainians to return and rebuild their country?

Despite all the competition for skilled workers, it should be in Germany’s interest that Ukraine one day can exist on its own again, is not dependent on money flows from the West and does not bleed to death.