Ukraine’s defeat will put EU values at risk, Michel says

A defeat of Ukraine would put European values at risk, which is why there is no alternative but for Europe’s support to continue, European Council President Charles Michel told a group of media, including Euractiv, in an interview.

“A defeat of Ukraine cannot be an option because we all understand where would be and what the consequences were if there would be,” Michel said, as Russia’s war against Ukraine is set to enter its third year on Saturday (24 February).

“Nobody can predict what the domestic situation in Russia will be, but what is clear, if Ukraine loses this war, there will be a huge risk to our values,” he added.

The EU and its top leaders have made it clear they intend to continue backing Kyiv, but artillery ammunition deliveries have slowed, and there is uncertainty over the next military aid package from Brussels.

“There is one Plan A – and only a Plan A – and that is support for Ukraine,” Michel said.

After the political and financial support decisions in the previous two EU summits, the bloc’s leaders in March are expected to agree on more long-term military aid for Ukraine under the EU’s European Peace Facility (EPF), used for weapons supplies to Ukraine.

However, EU member states so far have not found an agreement on a reform and top-up for the fund.

Asked when he expects an agreement, Michel said the matter should be resolved “in the next few weeks” but by the latest be finalised at the EU leaders’ table at their March summit.

“We can observe that there are also some difficulties in the United States, and I sincerely hope that they will follow our example because this money for Ukraine is an investment in peace and stability,” Michel said. 

European leaders are anxious about a hold-up to a $60 billion Ukraine aid package in the US Congress that has put into question Washington’s long-term commitment, as Republicans demand border security measures to pass the bill.

Asked whether Europe could have done more to support Ukraine in the past two years, Michel said: “I have been at the heart of decision-making alongside the EU27 over the past years, given the broader situation globally, we have done a lot.”

“Is this enough? We have to do even more now, we have to keep supporting Ukraine, we have to do what is necessary,” Michel said.

Michel then asked, “What would have happened if the €83 billion would have not been mobilised? What would have been the effect on our partners? If we did not act the way we did at the time, with sanctions, turned the Russian narrative around?”

While he said the battle is far from over, he was clear that “We have done an awful lot more than what we could have imagined.”

European elections

The EU’s June elections could be shaping up as a test of the potential rise of the far-right across the bloc, potentially further complicating regional support for Ukraine.

According to a recent survey, most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia, but only one in 10 think Ukraine can win, with most seeing a “compromise settlement” as necessary to end the conflict.

Asked whether he is worried that the bloc’s Ukraine’s support could be exploited as a campaign topic, Michel said, “We can already see it is exploited”.

“This is not new – very quickly after the start of the war, there was a risk that we would face a certain fatigue, and it will be more difficult to convince our people,” Michel said, adding that two years later, the EU is giving an example to the rest of the world, “not with communiqués but with decisions” on financial aid and enlargement.

“We need to explain to people that when we invest and when we spend money for supporting Ukraine, this investment is also an investment for ourselves because it is an investment for peace and stability in the EU,” he added.

More European coordination on defence

With Russia’s war raging nearby and the threat that a second Trump administration could pull the US out of NATO, Europe has increased its military spending. At the same time, the EU’s defence programmes and funds have multiplied.

“Following the start of the war two years ago, we all understand that we need to build a stronger security architecture,” Michel said.

“It can only be reliable and possible if we have, on the one hand, much more coordination among the EU member states in terms of capabilities, but also a much more powerful industrial basis,” he said.

His words echoed French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for the EU in the long run to strive for ‘strategic sovereignty’ rather than relying specifically on the US through NATO.

“A few years ago, there were some doubts, and I remember that probably around the European Council table, many had in mind that NATO is the umbrella of security and Europe should be more focused on economic purposes – now we face a new paradigm, and I am pleased to observe that the mindset it is totally different,” Michel said.

Key to that, the idea would be building up the European defence industry and buying within the EU.

“In the short-term, of course, we need to buy outside of Europe because we need equipment very fast, and we cannot produce everything we need in Europe,” Michel said.

“We also have to rebalance what we buy in Europe and what we buy outside of Europe -and today, we buy a lot outside of Europe,” he said.

“If you want to give some prospects for our businesses across the EU, we need to make [an] assessment [of this],” Michel added.

Asked about the proposal for a dedicated EU Defence Commissioner, a debate that has recently gained traction, Michel, however, said structures would already be in place.

“The Treaty of Lisbon is the Treaty of Lisbon, there is a clear rule for the High Representative and if there would be a proposal by someone to change the treaty then support from member states will be needed”, Michel said.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]