Ursula von der Leyen is her own worst political enemy

With the EU elections two months away, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may just turn out to be her worst political enemy, writes Ricardo Borges de Castro.

Ricardo Borges de Castro is a senior advisor at the European Policy Centre (EPC).

The forecasting platform Range gives von der Leyen a 77% chance of becoming the next president of the European Commission after the June European Parliament elections.

The past few weeks saw fierce speculation about whether her odds had suddenly changed. The likelihood of her being proposed by EU leaders and then chosen by an absolute majority of MEPs (360+1) remains the most likely scenario.

Yet her chances are worsening. Campaigning is fraught with surprises and setbacks shouldn’t be excluded.

Worst political enemy

Let’s start with von der Leyen herself. She is no longer a novelty. The surprise effect she had in 2019, along with the fact that she was to be the first woman to occupy the 13th floor of the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the commission, largely favoured her. Even so, she was elected with only a nine votes difference.

Her leadership style seems to be a problem too. Call it ‘Brussels bubble’ gossip, but the word in town is that von der Leyen’s decision-making includes only a few trusted advisers. The centralisation of power in the EU’s executive is not new, but this tendency was turbocharged in the past years. The problem? In a multilayered governance system like the EU, consultation, bargaining, and information sharing are key to avoiding mistakes.

COVID-19 lockdowns did not help commissioners become collegial and the president’s cautious managerial instincts reinforced that too.

The so-called “Piepergate,” the fiasco over Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, not to speak of the debacle of the trip to Israel following Hamas’ heinous terrorist attack, are all examples of mistakes that could have been avoided if decisions were more collective and stress-tested by more than just a few aides.

Downside of success

But it is not only blunders that can undermine von der Leyen. Her success at the helm of the commission can be a double-edged sword.

The first woman to lead the Commission has been, so far, one of its most successful presidents. She started with the right policy agenda focusing on the green and digital transitions. When her ‘Geopolitical Commission’ was confronted by the pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, von der Leyen stepped up, filling the vacuum left by a malfunctioning Berlin-Paris axis.

Von der Leyen was able to set the tone and pace of the EU’s crisis response and, along the way, became Kyiv’s supporter-in-chief in Brussels. Internationally, President Biden and she established a close bond that previous commission chiefs can’t claim to have had with former US presidents.

Likewise, the German politician has been instrumental in shaping the EU’s policy towards China now broadly known as “de-risking,” a term her Washington friends also adopted.

Who’s the boss?

But the commission boss could also be perceived by some as stepping out of her bounds, encroaching on the member states’ turf.

From the way in which several sanctions packages against Russia were publicly announced before being approved, to her foreign policy freewheeling on Israel-Palestine or even on China – both of which are far from consensus issues among the EU27 – the notion of overstepping was on many decision-makers’ minds.

Besides, which EU country really favours having a strong Commission president who is today perhaps one of the most recognisable European leaders? “She has a role as a policymaker. But, of course, her ultimate boss is, if I may say so, the member states.”

For Lars Danielsson – Sweden’s representative to the EU – there was no mincing of words when his country took the rotating EU presidency at the start of 2023. I suspect he is not alone.

Politics, rivals, and frenemies

There are a few more uncertain factors in von der Leyen’s re-election trail. As the European Parliament splinters politically and moves further to the right, a Commission president hopeful will have greater difficulty in being elected because they cannot promise everything to everyone.

Indeed, they may need to make difficult choices and trade-offs between policy priorities in exchange for support to get across the finishing line.

And, in a secret vote, no candidate should think that even her or his party members will support them.

To get to a Strasbourg vote, von der Leyen needs to be appointed by the European Council. There is no love lost between her and the outgoing council president and the Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who will hold the EU presidency from 1 July 2024. While they can’t stop her, it would be foolish to ignore the potential mischief that a ‘Michel-Orbán’ duo may try to pull.

But the ‘joker’ may be in President Macron’s hands. He was von der Leyen’s main cheerleader in 2019. Now, he is grappling with the rise of the far-right ahead of the European elections.

Recent news that he may be seeking alternatives to his favourite of five years ago adds uncertainty. Only Macron knows what he will do when the time comes.

Her election to lose

Renewing von der Leyen’s mandate would establish the EU as a beacon of continuity and stability in a world on steroids. She can still boost her chances, also with Germany’s support, but the election is hers to lose.

This will be the fight of her political lifetime.