GOP hopeful could be first Republican since Reagan to take deep-blue Empire State as his popularity surges among black and Hispanic voters

Former President Trump is increasingly likely to become the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to carry New York.

According to a recent poll conducted by Emerson College, President Biden leads Trump by just seven points in the famously-liberal Empire State - a meager margin which leaves Trump within striking distance. 

In New York, the circumstances are auspicious for the Republican party. There has been a groundswell of support for Trump after his conviction in the hush money trial, which many New Yorkers, including moderates and some liberals, have seen as the weaponization of justice. 

A Dailymail.com poll conducted after his conviction found that Trump's approval received a six-point bump.

Trump, himself a native New Yorker, has also improved his chances in the thoroughly Democratic state by drawing inspiration from Reagan's campaign playbook. 

The former president is wise to do so because the America of the 1980 presidential election bears uncanny similarities to the America of today.

In 1980, Reagan was up against incumbent Jimmy Carter, whom many Americans viewed as feckless and weak. 

At that time, the country was dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, an extremely precarious situation involving some 50 American hostages. 

The Soviets had also invaded Afghanistan, a move which hurt Carter, who had recently declaimed that Afghanistan did not fall within America's defensive perimeter. 

Like 2024, 1980 was a year in which there was enormous international upheaval, and many saw that upheaval as the upshot of Carter's limp-wristed policies.

In a similar fashion, many Americans argue that Putin was emboldened to invade Ukraine because of Biden's wishy-washy stance on Ukraine. 

As writer Craig Shirley noted in a Fox op-ed, 'Several years ago, Biden foolishly said Ukraine was not in America's defensive perimeter.'

Shirley further observed that Biden's statement gave 'carte blanche to President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.'

And in 1980, America was suffering from the dreaded stagflation, a period of economic turmoil that combined high inflation and high unemployment.

Although the May job's report painted a rosy picture of the country's employment situation, inflation remains high and a critical problem for many voters.

The final parallel between 1980 and 2024 is the presence of a wild-card candidate on the ballot that could potentially dilute Democrat votes. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as a moderate and has little chance of winning the election - but could potentially end up swinging it for his Republican rival.  

John Anderson, a liberal Republican from Illinois, ran as a third-party candidate. Following the election, pollsters affirmed that Anderson cost both Carter and Reagan votes.

However, Shirley wrote that Anderson 'was able to run on the Liberal Party Line in 1980, denying Carter these votes.'

Shirley continued: 'While Anderson's presence on the ballot did not cost Carter individual states, it may have helped cost him New York.'

Reagan was able to exploit these circumstances to his advantage. 

The weekend before the 1980 election, Reagan paid a visit to the South Bronx, where he aimed to emphasize the failures of the Carter administration and court the votes of disaffected Americans. 

During his appearance in the South Bronx, Reagan found himself surrounded by a bellicose audience. 

The crowd heckled him, and Reagan ultimately replied: 'This is an example of how the federal government can fail.'

But the campaign stop wasn't the disaster it initially seemed to be. 

Shirley wrote: 'But the incident was not a washout. Reagan was showing compassion to more moderate, wavering voters and thus scored a lot of points.'

In late May, Trump pulled a similar move and visited the South Bronx, where he addressed a diverse crowd of people in a bid to woo minority voters. 

During his visit, Trump criticized Biden's record and presented himself as the better president for black and Hispanic voters.

At one point during the rally, the crowd started chanting 'build the wall.'

Trump has also touted himself as a low-and-order candidate who will crack down on crime, an image which might further help him with New York voters.

In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin mounted an impressive bid for the New York Governorship. 

Zeldin ran on an anti-crime platform against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.

Although the Republican didn't win, he only lost by 6.4 percentage points, which marked a major failure for the Democrats. 

By contrast, in 2018, Cuomo won by a margin of 23.4 percentage points. 

Zeldin's relative success is further evidence that Trump has a chance of carrying the state.   

A native New Yorker, Trump has sought to leverage his background in the state with the local voters. He played up his New York roots at his rally in the Bronx.

'If a New Yorker can't save this country,' he said. 'No one can.'