How support from Mormons is critical to whether Donald Trump can pull out a win over Kamala Harris in key swing state

Mormons in Arizona could play a key role in who wins the crucial battleground state come November in an extremely tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormon Church, have long been a largely reliable voting bloc for Republicans, but that has changed in the era of Donald Trump.

It could be problematic for the GOP this fall as the Republican presidential nominee looks to flip Arizona back from blue to red in order to win the White House.

President Biden won the key state by just over 10,000 votes over Trump in 2020 after the ex-president carried the state in 2016. 

The race between Trump and Harris appears to be razor-thin with just over two months to go before the election.

The latest Real Clear Politics average shows the race neck-and-neck with Trump up by less than half a point in the state over Harris, meaning members of the Mormon Church could play a major role in who wins.

There are more than 442,000 Latter-day Saints in Arizona, according to the church. That's the largest number of the church's members in any presidential battleground state by a long-shot.

Biden gained 18,000 votes among Latter-day Saints in the state in 2020, according to Y2 Analytics, meaning if Harris can pick up an even greater share in the 2024 election, it could help her win the state and its 11 Electoral College votes.

While Trump is viewed somewhat or very favorably by more than 65 percent of White evangelical protestants. Only 48 percent of Latter-day Saints have a favorable view of the GOP presidential nominee.

Earlier this month, the group Latter-day Saints for Harris held an national organizing call which had more than 1,400 participants. 

It was inspired my multiple other groups holding online events for the Harris-Walz ticket and had people tune in from 49 states and Washington, DC.

On the call, participants heard from Mormon members including one in Arizona who had been a lifelong Republican but supported Biden in 2020 and would support Harris in November. 

The group believes there are an estimated 73,500 Latter-day Saints in Arizona that could break for Harris in November and help keep the state blue.

Democrats also had an Arizona member of the Latter-day Saints speak at the Democratic National Convention last week in Chicago.

Republican Mesa, Arizona Mayor John Giles was one of multiple registered Republicans to speak on the convention stage. 

He is a member of the Republicans for Harris as well as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. 

'I feel more at home here than in today’s Republican Party,' he told the crowd.

He was also on the Latter-day Saints for Harris call on August 6. 

While on the call, he encouraged those in Maricopa County, AZ to help 'duplicate' the Democrats' victory in 2020 again this fall.

Both Trump and Harris recognize the importance of Arizona and are campaigning heavily in the state.

Trump was there just last week during the Democratic National Convention where he had a rally on Friday in Glendale.

Harris swung through Glendale for a rally with running mate Tim Walz earlier this month as well.