How West Coast state's primaries may predict the outcome of Trump and Kamala's election night

Political observers are now pointing to the primary results in Washington state as a sign for how the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris might go.

Washington's primaries are strong predictors of both the general mood among voters and the general election because of how late they happen - August or September - which leaves voters less time to change their minds before November, The New York Times reported.

Also, its primaries are a free-for-all, with all candidates regardless of party competing on the same ballot. The top two advance to the final ballot. In theory, this incentivizes candidates to campaign harder and voters to participate more.

When you put this all together, Washington has high-turnout elections with a diverse voter base just a few months before the rest of the country casts their ballot for president.

Last month, Washington's House Democrats received 58 percent of the major party vote share, which was three points better than 2022. 

This suggests there may be reason for Harris to have optimism going into November.

The numbers indicate the country is in a similar mood as it was in 2020, when Joe Biden beat Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the national popular vote and Democrats held onto the House of Representatives.

If Washington's numbers were applied to the popular vote this year compared to years past, Democrats would perform about where they did in 2020 and two points better than in 2016.

However, the flaw in this method of prediction is that it can only give a window into the popular vote, not the electoral college, which is what will determine the winner of the election.

Trump himself was able to decisively beat Hillary Clinton in the electoral college vote in 2016, despite the Democrat getting nearly 2.9 million more votes.

The 2016 primary results from the nonurban parts of Washington (excluding Seattle) suggested Clinton would underperform in northern battleground states, which she went on to do.

An analysis by SplitTicket, an independent election analysis site, studied Washington's election results and excluded Seattle.

As part of their study, the company showcased parts of Washington that are in total much more demographically similar to important swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

According to recent polls, the candidates are neck in neck in all three of those states; Harris leads Trump by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in Michigan, and by two in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to a New York Times/ Siena College poll. 

In Pennsylvania, Harris is up 50-48 percent, according to a Fox News poll. 

Perhaps Washington's best predictor of the presidential election is its bell weather Clallam County. Voters in the county have picked the winning presidential candidate every time since 1980.

Analyzing the primary results from Clallam County, a.k.a. the 6th Congressional District, Democrats received 59.2 percent of the vote share on the first ballot, whereas Republicans only received 38 percent.