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New poll shows critical swing state could be flipped - with devastating consequences for Kamala Harris and Democrats

2 weeks ago 5

By Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter For Dailymail.com In Washington, DC

Published: 15:53 BST, 2 September 2024 | Updated: 16:40 BST, 2 September 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris is headed to Michigan on Monday where new polling shows Donald Trump could flip the crucial swing state come November. 

The poll by EPIC-MRA shows a razor-thin race with the Republican presidential nominee holding a slight edge in a head-to-head matchup. 

The poll has Trump at 47 percent to Harris at 46 percent with seven percent of Michigan voters undecided or declining to say who they support. But there is a 4 percent margin of error, so the presidential hopefuls are essentially in a statistical tie. 

Both campaigns have signaled just how important the swing state is with its 15 electoral votes. Biden flipped the state back to blue in 2020 after Trump carried the state in 2016. 

The vice president is holding a campaign event in Detroit on Monday. The ex-president held a rally in the state last week. 

Poll out of Michigan shows Trump and Harris neck-and-neck in the crucial battleground state

When it came to the issues, more respondents said Trump would do better with handling the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as well as dealing with China, Iran and North Korea. 

They also gave him better marks on policies to help the economy and even suggested he would be more likely to propose bipartisan legislation to secure the border even though he tanked a bipartisan border security deal earlier this year which Harris supports. 

At the same time, Michigan voters said Harris would be better with nominating justices to the U.S. Supreme Court, addressing climate change, legislation on reproductive rights, affordable housing and ensuring access to health care.

The polling found that neither nominee's choice of running mate has played a major factor in whether they support the candidate. 

Sixty-five percent of respondents said Trump selecting Ohio Senator J.D. Vance will not influence their vote while 55 percent said Harris choosing Minnesota Governor as her running mate had no impact.

A poll of active and likely Michigan voters conducted August 23 to 26

As the EPIC-MRA poll shows a virtually tied race, it is closely in line with several other polls out of Michigan in recent weeks as the presidential campaign heads into the final stretch. 

The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls out of the swing state has Harris with a just over one point lead head of Trump in Michigan. 

An Emerson poll and a separate Bloomberg poll conducted around the same time both show Harris three points ahead but are also within the margin of error.

Meanwhile, Democrat Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin  has a slight lead over Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race.

Both are vying to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. 

The EPIC-MRA poll has Slotkin polling at 46 percent to Rogers 42 percent. 

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