Presidential polls live updates: Kamala Harris closes the gap with Trump in Arizona

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Vice President Kamala Harris is making up ground against Donald Trump in the battleground swing state of Arizona.

While the former president still leads Harris 49 percent to 47 percent, the two-point gap is a 6 percent improvement for the vice president from the same results in June from AARP polling where Trump was ahead by eight points.

Harris made up ground among the youngest voting bloc of those 18 to 34, as well as some of the oldest over the age of 65.

Trump lost seven points from seniors in the border state.

The former president’s two-point lead among 600 likely Arizona voters surveyed between September 24 and October 1 is within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error.

Arizona is one of the seven swing states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election – along with Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The bipartisan AARP polling was conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research as well as Republican firm Fabrizio Ward, which was co-founded by Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks above during a campaign rally in Douglas, Arizona on September 27

Hurricane Milton is barreling towards Florida's west coast with tremendous power bringing with it expectations for widespread damage and death throughout the area.

The storm is so daunting that it has forced Florida Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a MAGA faithful, to evacuate her home in Pinellas County with her one-year-old son in tow fearing for his life.

'It's very likely that I'm going to be sending my son to see his family out of state because when we come home, I don't think that we'll have a house left,' Luna told DailyMail.com on a phone call as she prepares her family and district for disaster.

Kamala Harris lectured hurricane victims for believing what she called 'misinformation' while chugging a beer with Stephen Colbert on CBS' 'The Late Show' Tuesday night.

Progressive darling Colbert, who briefly ended a vacation week to do an all-new episode with Harris amid a week of reruns, asked Harris her opinion on both Hurricane Milton and the just passed Hurricane Helene, which has killed hundreds.

She lectured victims of Helene for believing Republicans spreading what she called 'misinformation' about the state of FEMA in the reaction to Helene.

'First of all, to all of those folks in North Carolina and Georgia, please know that people on the ground with FEMA are there to help you, you are entitled to it. There's a lot of information and I beseech you, I beg you not to listen to it.'

Later in the chat, Harris appeared to get a buzz after Colbert pitched the idea of having a beer to the vice president by stating that 2024 was a 'vibes election.'

Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com's brilliant poll tracker.

Readers can view who is winning the head-to-head race as well as the situation in the battleground states that will ultimately decide who gets into the White House.

All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com's pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

The 2024 presidential election could be one of the closest in history.

Polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck during one of the most unprecedented campaigns in recent memory.

The race has been dominated by assassination attempts, two drama-filled debates and President Joe Biden making the monumental decision to forgo a chance at a second term by dropping out of the race.

Every day there are dramatic twists and turns that are shaping the biggest conversation in the nation: Who will be the next president?

As the United States races toward Election Day on November 5, DailyMail.com is launching its first politics newsletter to keep you up to date with the most important developments.

Former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in the Daily Mail's election model, which now gives him his highest probability yet of victory over Kamala Harris in November's election.

A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, putting him one-point up over his Democratic opponent, helped nudge him to an almost 18-point lead, two points more than last week.

But plenty can change in the final weeks of campaigning.

And with Trump on a 58.8 percent of winning to Harris' 41.1 the result remains very much in tossup territory.

However, the latest polling data now suggest that Trump is on track to win 302 electoral college votes to Harris' 236, the most decisive lead yet.

Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners who crunches the numbers, said in his latest briefing note: 'Things continue to move against Harris—Trump's win probability has increased by another two points since last week.

The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points.

'The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign.