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Trump leads Kamala Harris in three critical swing states where voters say life was better under the former president

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By Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Published: 18:33 BST, 23 September 2024 | Updated: 13:31 BST, 24 September 2024

New polling shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in three critical battleground states both candidates have been campaigning heavily in as the race for the White House heads into the final stretch.

The New York Times/Siena College poll shows the ex-president's strength in the Sun Belt where he has a sizable lead over the vice president in Arizona and is polling ahead in Georgia and North Carolina among likely voters. 

Respondents there said Trump improved their lives when he was president and worry a Harris administration would not. 

In Arizona, a state Trump lost by just over 10,000 votes to President Biden in 2020, the poll has Trump up five points 50 percent to Harris' 45 percent.

In Georgia, another state the Republican presidential nominee lost by less than 12,000 votes in the 2020 election, Trump leads 49 percent to Harris' 45 percent. 

In North Carolina, which Trump won in 2020 by just 75,000 votes, the race is extremely close with the ex-president polling at 49 percent over Harris' 47 percent. 

New polling shows Trump leading Harris in three critical battleground states 

The polling shows just how close the presidential race truly is with it likely being decided by just seven battleground states where a few thousand votes could make a massive difference on who gets the set the course of the country for the next four years.

The Sun Belt polling comes as other polling recently showed Harris with signs of strength in several other battleground states including the crucial state of Pennsylvania where the New York Times/Siena College had her up four points.

The race for the White House and path to 270 electoral votes runs directly through the Keystone State as well as Georgia and North Carolina. 

The number one issue the poll found for likely voters in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina was the economy. It was the number one issue in all three battleground states. 55 percent of respondents said Trump would do a better job managing it while 42 percent said Harris would.

Abortion and immigration were tied as the second most important issue in the election in those three states.

Poll of likely voters conducted September 17 to 21

According to the polling released Monday, Trump has a double digit lead among men in Arizona as well as a lead among older voters.  Harris has a much smaller lead among women but strong support among younger and college educated likely voters. 

Harris also leads Trump among  Hispanic voters in the state but only by eight points with another 10 percent saying they are still undecided. 

Arizona also shows signs of ticket splitting because even as Trump leads, the Democrat Ruben Gallego is polling well ahead of Kari Lake in the state's Senate race.

With the race in Arizona expected to be close, the vice president will be heading to the state to campaign on Friday. 

Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning in Georgia on Friday, September 20. She heads to Arizona on Friday as the poll shows Trump leading in both states

Meanwhile, Trump leads among men in Georgia by 17 points, the polling shows. Harris has an eight point lead among women. Harris also has only a six point lead among likely voters 18 to 29. 

Trump also is ahead among white voters in the state by 45 points while Harris leads among black voters 82 percent to Trump's 11 percent.

North Carolina is a state Democrats see as one they could potentially flip come November after Trump carried it in 2016 and 2020. The last Democrat to win it in a presidential election was President Obama in 2008.

In North Carolina, Trump also holds a double digit lead among men while Harris is up eight points among women. Trump has a 24 point lead among white voters, which is smaller than the gap in Georgia. 

The Democratic candidate in the governor's race Josh Stein also has a double digit lead over embattled Republican candidate for governor Mark Robinson who is embroiled in scandal after it surfaced that he once called himself a 'black Nazi.'

Donald Trump campaigning in Wilmington, NC on Saturday, September 21 as the NYT/Siena poll shows him in a close race there. He will head back to the state on Wednesday 

Trump's lead in the Sun Belt states comes despite 50 percent of likely voters saying they have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of the ex-president. 

At the same time, 52 percent of respondents said they had a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Harris.

Among those respondents who were still undecided, the number one concern with Trump was his personality and behavior. 34 percent said that was their biggest concern. 

For Harris the biggest concern among undecided or persuadable voters was much more mixed with sixteen percent saying it was her personality, judgement. attitude and ability.

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