Von der Leyen’s carefully crafted coalition faces first test

Incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also the frontrunner to retain the role for another five-year mandate, is expected to deliver a compromise programme to gather a majority of votes from the Parliament on Thursday (18 July).

Von der Leyen is set to address some 700 newly elected members of European Parliament in Strasbourg before debating the political groups’ figureheads, the outcome of which will decide whether she is successful in her bid.

Over the past three weeks, von der Leyen has been busy meeting several political families, including the Left and the Conservatives in ECR, in a bid to secure more than the 361 votes needed to ensure her reelection.

Notably, her efforts have focused on winning over each political group one at a time. The lack of multilateral discussions and negotiations means she will have been able to double-promise herself.

The centrist alliance consisting of centre-right EPP, socialist S&D and centrist Renew Europe granted von der Leyen her nomination to this Thursday stand in front of the Parliament.

In 2019, von der Leyen passed with a margin of just nine votes, and this time, the centrist alliance has 401 in the hemicycle—well beyond the 361 votes needed to pass von der Leyen with a certain majority—some MEPs are expected to dissent.

France’s Les Républicains and liberal German MEPs have so far expressed reluctance, and Joachim Streit, a member of the Liberals Freie Wähler, will not vote in her favour either.

“She is not transparent”, the MEP told Euractiv, as she did not announce her programme before voting day. He also does not support her policies on combustion engine bans, the banking union or the Green Deal.

Meanwhile, the centrist alliance has lost some of its oomph compared to election night, when the liberals in Renew Europe were the third biggest group. They have since been overtaken by Giorgia Meloni’s ECR group and the new far-right Patriots for Europe group, which has pushed them down to fifth place.

Von der Leyen has therefore reached out to the Greens, the group’s 53 MEPs, and Conservatives in ECR to secure some extra votes.

According to group leader Terry Reintke, von der Leyen can expect around 45 Green votes, while a further 50-75 votes could be on the cards from the Conservatives.

If all goes to plan, von der Leyen should get some 410 votes, even if she loses 10% from the centrist alliance, but the gap is too close to call leaving some parliamentarians unsure of what to expect.

Some are certain she will pass. Some are more hesitant, even from within their own political family.

Henrik Dahl (EPP) says he is “not convinced of anything”.

“It would be a very, very unfortunate signal for Europe, and all of Europe’s enemies will be rubbing their hands if we screw this up,” he told Euractiv.

This sentiment is shared within Renew, suggesting that von der Leyen’s rejection would only lead to chaos and satisfy the far right.

Greens Euractiv talked to, however, seemed fairly optimistic about her vote.

Some parliament observers are interpreting the vice-presidencies election, excluding the far-right factions, as evidence of cooperation between the four pro-EU groups, which could set the stage for the final grand bargain to support von der Leyen.

The EPP, Liberals, Socialists and Greens informally had agreed ahead of the vote, according to three sources, to distribute high-level positions.

For the Greens, the election of one of their own as vice-president in the first voting round meant that the centre-right supported them.

Bargaining and list of concessions

Von der Leyen’s 9am speech will put the result of her backroom discussions on public display. Expect a mixture between a ‘State of the Union’ address and a concrete political programme for the next five years.

To give von der Leyen guidance, the major groups in the Parliament are understood to have agreed to non-binding broad policy priorities that von der Leyen should draw on in her speech.

Her speech will also have to balance between providing compromises on tricky topics or finding the right words to paper over differences and appease all sides, at least for now.

For example, the Greens will want reassurance that the 2035 combustion engine ban will remain in place, but which elements of Von der Leyen’s own political family wish to dismantle.

A balanced wording on anti-migration measures that equally respect human rights will be needed to please the Conservatives, Socialists, and Greens.

One EU source said Von der Leyen is also expected to announce the disbursement of funds for Gaza and Palestine—a sensitive topic on which she has faced serious criticism in the past.

Industrial policy, especially for defence, is one of Renew and EPP members’ focus.

Making the Left-affiliated Parliament vice-president happy, von der Leyen “has pledged to implement a Pact for the Oceans and is due to announce the contents of this plan,” Younous Omarjee told Euractiv.

After the speech, the political groups and 720 individual voters have three hours to discuss before casting their votes in a secret ballot. The results are expected at approximately 1pm on Thursday.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

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