Von der Leyen’s next challenge: Fishing for votes, left and right

2 months ago 8

While Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for the European Commission presidency may have cleared the hurdle of getting approval from the EU27 leaders, her next big challenge will be wooing key members of the European Parliament.

While the late-night rubber-stamping stage is complete, von der Leyen remains in campaign mode as she now needs approval from a simple majority vote in the European Parliament, expected to take place in the first plenary on 18 July.

The centrist alliance at the heart of Thursday’s EU top job deal – comprised of centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists and liberal Renew Europe – currently counts 399 MEPs.

This would be a safe “platform” for her confirmation, von der Leyen told reporters after her nomination by EU leaders. It would put her past the 361 votes she requires to secure a designation for the job.

However, those votes may not be enough, as some national delegations within her “platform” are hesitating, such as EPP’s French delegation, Les Républicains.

Over the past week, von der Leyen has started reaching out to the European Parliament, holding talks with Socialist leader Iratxe García and Liberal Renew Europe group leader Valérie Hayer, but also with key individual EU lawmakers, people familiar with the talks said.

“I will be reaching out to others,” von der Leyen told reporters after the EU top job summit, specifying she would not focus on negotiating only with Socialists and Liberals but also with ‘certain parts’ of other political groups.

“The experience shows that it is the national delegations that often take the decision,” she said, hinting towards their varying voting coherence.

Von der Leyen kept a healthy dose of ambiguity on Thursday, not naming any parties she planned to reach out to, just her usual three red lines: that they should be pro-European, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law.

She would be willing to talk with anyone who invites her, she said, to present her “political guidelines.”

Ambiguity is key

Von der Leyen’s comments indicated she would pick up votes everywhere around the hemicycle, regardless of the ‘centrist coalition’s’ preferences.

One particularly thorny matter has been whether the 24 EU lawmakers of Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia, would give von der Leyen her blessing.

Meloni abstained from Thursday’s summit vote, claiming the proposed deal lacked “in method and in substance” and denouncing her sidelining from the talks despite her party being the third force in the Parliament.

Her abstention now gives her time to fully consider which position to take, banking on keeping strategic ambiguity to best put forward her interests. Meloni reportedly tried to get an important Commissioner portfolio for her country in exchange for supporting von der Leyen.

At the same time, it gives von der Leyen more time to ponder how to reach out to hard-right Fratelli d’Italia while keeping a good relationship with Socialists, Liberals, and Greens.

Party lines

The European Parliament’s confirmation vote is based on a secret ballot, which could help MEPs looking to stray from their group lines.

After Thursday’s summit, several EU leaders mentioned different parties to contact.

The Greens have declared their availability and their willingness to compromise, and their leaders are waiting to enter official negotiations.

But after the summit and Meloni’s abstention, it is unclear if ECR will give von der Leyen its blessing in July.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala told reporters on Thursday night that his national conservative hard-right ECR should be more involved in the decision-making process.

However, he also urged more cooperation. “For me, it is very important to have the closest possible cooperation between ECR and EPP,” he told reporters in Brussels.

Von der Leyen can now continue an ambiguous relationship with ECR, allowing her to reach out to the Greens. Meanwhile, she can maintain a healthy relationship with Socialists and Liberals, as the two have repeatedly said they do not want von der Leyen to work with ECR.

For Socialist German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, there is no need to fish in the hard right, as the Greens votes should be “expected, at least in part”, he told reporters in Brussels.

“There will also be support from forces that are not in [the Socialists] (…), but I am firmly convinced that it is good if parties that are in right-wing populist party families are not the basis of this support,” he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron was similarly optimistic about von der Leyen achieving a parliamentary majority.

“I think there was a large consensus, I am sure a path will be found in future,” he said. “But I respect completely the position of our colleague, Giorgia Meloni, who represents an important country and is a friend of France.”

[Edited by Alice Taylor]