Von der Leyen’s speech: The topics that burn

In addition, within the pro-EU coalition, which has politically vowed to stick together against the rise of the far-right blocs, there is still unclarity or even divergence in some policy areas.

To minimise the risk of defections from the pro-EU coalition, von der Leyen will have to be extra careful during her speech before the vote.

The combustion engine ban

A revision of the EU’s de facto 2035 combustion engine ban has emerged as a clear flashpoint between the three groups.

The EPP’s draft ‘5 Point Plan’ states that the group wants to revise the ban, and German party CDU/CSU made this an election campaign issue.

In contrast, EU socialists have made preserving the ban “a key demand” for the next European Commission.

Renew also has a stake in the issue. Although MEPs voted in favour of the ban, and the group does not reference it in its draft political priorities, the German liberals have been vocal.

German liberal Transport Minister Volker Wissing last week posted on X that any refusal to revise the ban would be “a gigantic electoral fraud.”

Europe’s car industry is divided on the issue. Few carmakers explicitly call for a revision of the ban, while companies such as Volvo, Renault and the owner of Fiat and other brands have called for the ban to be maintained.

The rules will be reviewed in 2026. If von der Leyen does choose to water down or postpone the ban, this would be the opportunity to do so.

Agriculture: The ‘green’ headache

After the farmers’ protests that swept Europe in early 2024, all groups in the European Parliament have prioritised agricultural issues in their political wish list for the next mandate

However, these demands hold varying levels of importance for different groups, influencing their potential support for von der Leyen.

As reported by Euractiv last week, the socialists, centre-right, and liberals are advocating for fair remuneration for farmers and addressing unfair trading practices as key priorities.

The Greens/EFA also confirmed to Euractiv that they expect von der Leyen to mention these issues in her speech on Thursday.

The S&D has kept their demands on sustainability and environmental policies in farming vague, not calling for specific legislation at this stage, according to socialist sources.

Renew, on the other hand, has been more explicit in its priorities, advocating for reviving targets to cut pesticide use by 50% and unveiling new EU animal welfare rules, though it remains uncertain if support for von der Leyen is contingent upon these issues.

Whether the absence of explicit commitments from von der Leyen on sustainable farming policies will be a deal-breaker for the Greens/EFA remains to be seen, as discussions are still ongoing, according to a source from the Greens’ group close to the negotiations.

“It’s important that the sustainability of farming practices and our food systems is not just forgotten,” the source added.

The wording on the Middle East conflict

While Von der Leyen is expected to tick the regular boxes on supporting Ukraine, countering China’s economic might, and advancing enlargement, it remains unknown how far she will go when it comes to elaborating on more contentious issues such as Gaza, which could cost her some votes left and right, depending on the wording.

A too-strong emphasis on an even more ‘geopolitical Commission’ might raise some eyebrows, especially since she has been accused of overreaching regarding her Israel stance in her first mandate.

Von der Leyen is expected to argue for the bloc to invest more in European defence in the next five years, something that EPP, Socialists, and Liberals can agree to.

However, she must go into nuances to get (or keep) specific countries on board.

One key issue could be the reference to recent proposals to beef up security in Europe’s East, which is also being used as a lobbying drive for Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition in Poland.

Or the creation of an EU-funded air defence shield, pushed by also Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

To get at least some of Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) votes, she will need to repeat she is ready to boost the external dimension of the EU’s migration policy by considering outsourcing procedures and developing economic partnerships with neighbouring countries.

[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Alice Taylor]