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2 months ago
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The political balances that emerged after the EU elections have changed Ursula von der Leyen’s initial plan to seek support for her reelection from the right, and she is now turning to the Greens to find a safe majority, but trust remains a thorny issue.
Von der Leyen relies on the votes of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), EU socialists (S&D), and Liberals (Renew), who have vowed to form a pro-EU coalition in the next five-year mandate.
According to the latest numbers, the EPP has 188 seats, the socialists 136, and liberals 76, ensuring a 400-seat majority in the 720-seat EU House.
However, considering that the vote is secret, the EPP has set a “15%” red line, meaning it could potentially lose up to 15% of votes from individual members of the pro-EU coalition groups.
The EPP is not certain that all socialists will vote for von der Leyen, including individual lawmakers from within their own ranks, especially the French and the Austrian delegations.
On 1 July, von der Leyen also started talks with the Greens, eyeing their 53 votes.
EU lawmaker Bas Eickhout told Euractiv that the talks’ objective was to see whether the Greens could join the majority in focusing on not backtracking on the Green Deal.
For its part, the EPP seems to have been divided internally over who to collaborate.
In an interview with Euractiv in September 2023, the EPP secretary general told Euractiv that the Greens should be part of the pro-EU coalition.
“I think the EPP, the Socialists, Liberals, and the Greens are political elements within the EU that have guaranteed our Union is moving forward in the right direction,” Bakolas had said then.
However, a few months later, centre-right politicians – including von der Leyen and EPP chief Manfred Weber – said they were open to collaborating with the “healthy” elements on the right, such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, excluding the Greens.
The EU Socialists reacted and ruled out any support for von der Leyen if an ECR member such as Meloni was part of the pro-EU coalition.
However, the divisions within the EPP still seem to exist.
The agriculture coordinator, Herbert Dorfmann, told Euractiv on Tuesday (9 July) that von der Leyen “should not search for the support of the Greens” to avoid past situations focusing on environmental issues and “neglecting” farmers.
Green Deal revived?
Considering that the support of EU socialists is necessary to ensure a safe majority, von der Leyen turns to the Greens. However, trust is an issue.
“There is definitely a trust issue between the EPP and the Greens. We cannot trust them that they will fully support us, and this is something we have to work on to make the pro-EU coalition as strong as possible”, a source from the centre-right European People’s Party group told Euractiv.
The same source added that by opening to the Greens, the EPP “has nothing to lose”.
“The Greens are pro-EU forces and have no EU political home […] there is no harm to embrace them”, the source added.
For their part, the Greens insist on continuing the Green Deal amid EPP calls before the elections that a “pragmatic” approach needed to be adopted.
“The Green Deal is a law, and everyone recognises it […], but its implementing laws need to have the economic angle taken into account”, the EPP source insisted.
But the lack of trust seems to be mutual.
Aside from policy, the Greens are considering placing loyalists in key positions within the EU’s bureaucracy—like committee chairs—citing fears that the EPP could opt to govern with the nationalist ECR once von der Leyen is elected.
But the EU socialists, too, put again the Green Deal high on the agenda of the next EU executive.
A document entitled “Key Demands 2024-2029” seen by Euractiv suggests that existing key green policies should remain intact.
“The achievements made so far in the European Green Deal, the Fit for 55 Package, and the 2030 target must remain in place”, the document reads.
Poland’s PiS undecided
The ECR, which currently has 78 seats, is trying to find its place in the new landscape.
Within two weeks, the ECR became the third largest group overtaking the EU Liberals, until last Monday (8 July) when the far-right “Patriots for Europe” was formed and pushed ECR in the fourth position.
It’s still unclear what the Brothers of Italy EU lawmakers (24 seats) will do regarding von der Leyen. Meloni abstained from the EU leaders’ vote on von der Leyen earlier this month.
Poland’s PiS, the other big delegation in ECR with 20 seats, has not formally decided yet whether to support von der Leyen, the office of Joachim Brudziński, ECR co-chair, told Euractiv Poland, adding that the decision is to be taken “in the near future”.
*Aleksandra Krzysztoszek contributed to this article
[Edited by Alice Taylor]
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