Von der Leyen strengthens reappointment bid as right-wing triumphs in elections

With a strong performance of her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is ready for the second part of her reappointment battle. 

In Sunday’s elections, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) scored first place with 184 seats, leaving the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) in second place with 139 and the liberal Renew group third with 80.

Far-right and hard-right groups hold almost a quarter of the seats, up from a fifth in 2019 at 3 am on Monday (10 June).

Asked on Sunday evening (9 June) whether she is confident of securing sufficient EU lawmakers’ votes for a second mandate, von der Leyen said she intended to first reach out to the socialists and liberals to “build on a constructive and proven relationship” of the past five years. 

The aim is to continue working based on an informal alliance with the pro-European, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law factions, von der Leyen reiterated.  

“We are ready to negotiate an agreement for the next years,” said Nicolas Schmit, the lead candidate of the European Socialists (PES), in reaction to von der Leyen’s calls.

“I hear very clearly the messages coming from Ursula von der Leyen. I am absolutely aware and confident that there is a readiness to work together and to fight to find the right compromises, but also the right solutions,” he said.

Looking for wide support for her re-election and to pass future laws – and a bigger majority than in 2019, when she got elected by a tight margin of seven votes – von der Leyen had left the door open to parts of the hard right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party, that meet her criteria.  

However, on Sunday evening, she avoided referring to them, seemingly closing the door on more conservative European policy-making, which focused on anti-migration and less supportive of green policies.  

But von der Leyen could still look to ECR in the future.  

“Von der Leyen is a great lady,” Belgian member of the European Parliament (MEP) Assita Kanko, speaking for ECR on election night, told Euractiv. Kanko showed openness to back von der Leyen “if she has a good programme.” 

Gaming out the numbers 

Any candidate for the EU executive’s top job would require a 361 majority of the 720-seat parliament.

A three-way centrist coalition between EPP, S&D, and Renew, which has so far governed Europe, currently comprises 403 seats, according to the latest projections. 

In 2019, von der Leyen made it through with just 383 EU lawmakers voting in favour of her candidacy. 

The Greens, the biggest losers of the election – losing 20 seats – voiced their availability to join such a coalition.  

Green co-lead candidate Bas Eickhout said it was “very clear that we need a stable majority in this house to deliver for the citizens (…), and we as Greens are ready to take that responsibility”. 

All four groups would bring the coalition to 455 seats, giving von der Leyen a comfortable majority, even allowing for potential defections. 

In December 2023, the parliament adopted a resolution calling for a ‘legislative agreement’ between the political groups involved in the current coalition to secure a majority to elect the next Commission president, serving as a basis for the EU executive’s next work programme. 

Such an agreement recently gained traction, as socialists and liberals want to ensure the EPP sticks to an agreed agenda without backtracking on key legislative files, as happened at the end of the last term with the nature restoration law and the pesticide regulation. 

Von der Leyen’s opponents weakened

Across Europe, several governments seen as hurdles to the centre-right and von der Leyen found their positions weakened by the results.

French President Emmanuel Macron said to support Mario Draghi against von der Leyen called snap elections following major wins by the far-right opposition Rassemblement National. 

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who put into question von der Leyen’s re-election, also suffered a blow as his party lost seats to her political family (CDU/EPP) and the far-right AfD, weakening his position before the next year’s federal election. 

Meanwhile, in Hungary, while still coming first, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is on track to score its worst-ever result in an EU election.

Conversely, two of von der Leyen’s key allies came out reinforced by the polls.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right Fratelli d’Italia came top of exit polls, cementing her position, likely to strengthen her hand in negotiations over EU top jobs. 

In Poland, for the first time in a decade, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition won more seats than the far-right Law and Justice (PiS) party, giving him weight as one of von der Leyen’s key backers.

EU leaders are expected to start on Monday with informal talks on distributing the four top EU jobs, followed by an informal summit on Monday (17 June).

*Angelo di Mambro contributed to the reporting.

[Edited by Donagh Cagney/Rajnish Singh/Alice Taylor]

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