Von der Leyen will face challenge to achieve gender balance in next Commission team

As European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen prepares to spend the summer interviewing potential candidates for her new team, she may face challenges on three key fronts.

Von der Leyen is expected to send a letter asking member states to put forward their candidates by the end of this week, with the aim of holding the first interviews around mid-to-late August, people familiar with the matter said.

Any consideration of personalities on the drawing board on Berlaymont’s 13th floor will have to take into account gender parity, political party affiliation, and the balance between geography and priorities.

While this widely worked when von der Leyen compiled her first team in 2019, this time around, she might be looking at a tough summer to get all her ducks in a row.

Gender (un)balance

As in her first term, von der Leyen intends to ask member states to propose a man and a woman, to facilitate gender balance in her new College of 26 Commissioners.

“I want to choose the best who share the European commitment and, in terms of numbers, there will be parity between men and women,” von der Leyen told reporters after her confirmation in Strasbourg last week.

But she might face a challenge to receive enough names for a gender-balanced team in the first place.

The first applications have started trickling in over the recent weeks – the Czech Republic, Finland, Latvia, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Slovenia, and Slovakia – have put only one name forward.

As Euractiv’s outline shows, many of the potential names currently floated in member states are men, with a few exceptions.

“According to the treaties, member states need to provide a name – as in one – not two,” one EU diplomat from a country that is certain to stick to one candidate told Euractiv.

“Rest assured some might opt not to send two, as they have made their choice consciously and in accordance with what makes domestic sense for them, politically speaking,” the diplomat added.

Lopsided political bonds

When it comes to the party affiliation of the future nominees, it is already clear that conservatives from the European People’s Party (EPP) significantly outnumber other parties.

In other words, this is likely to be the most EPP-staffed Commission to date.

And then there are a few cases where candidates would likely make a good fit but may run into domestic obstacles, like in Lithuania or Luxembourg.

EPP chief Manfred Weber has publicly endorsed Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis to serve as the next commissioner, but the domestic situation in the country is far from clear yet: A long-running feud between the country’s President Gitanas Nausėda and Landsbergis might stand in his way.

The outgoing Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit, on the other hand, has seemingly low chances at home as Luxembourg’s conservative government is eyeing sending EPP’s Christophe Hansen as its next commissioner.

But as a Socialist who had a good working relationship with von der Leyen, Schmit could be a good candidate, enough for her to call Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Luc Frieden and ask him to consider allowing him to stay in Brussels. This would also help her address calls for more party balance within her new team.

A fight for files

Member states have already started haggling over portfolios, hoping to secure a powerful post for their nominee. While those talks normally take place in the background, some EU leaders have made it plain what file they would like to see attributed to their candidates.

To get the more desired files, a good relationship with von der Leyen by way of a harmless, not real, competitor is likely to be key.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has vocally proclaimed that “Italy needs to be recognised for the role it deserves”, meaning “industry, competitiveness and cohesion” portfolios. Her Czech right-wing counterpart Petr Fiala said he wanted “a strong portfolio, preferably an economic one”.

Other EPP heavy-hitters like Poland and Greece will also expect a major portfolio to back her candidacy.

In several EU countries, like Socialist-ruled Spain, the choice of the commissioner candidate – in this case, former energy minister Teresa Ribera – is often linked with the desired portfolio.

But according to Euractiv’s estimation, the trouble on this front is that too many countries are currently gunning for the same few important portfolios, such as competition, trade, industry, and economic policy.

As Euractiv reported earlier, one of the more desired ones is the enlargement portfolio, which has the task of preparing the ground for the future EU membership of the nine candidate countries, looking into adjacent policy areas, and advising on the bloc’s internal reforms that will be needed in the coming years.

Agriculture is expected to be another hot portfolio. The EPP ran an electoral campaign under the brand of the “farmers’ party”, and recently made it clear that it has the portfolio in its sights.

Combining this with the tradition and preference of having politicians from ‘small’ countries’ for the agri portfolio will need to be followed after Poland has had its turn in the current term. Austria, Croatia, and Portugal seem to be the countries that can nominate candidates for the post.

Cohesion and regional policy are also likely to be desired, with the EU’s new long-term budget and modalities of how the bloc’s funds will be distributed in the future soon to be negotiated.

Then, there are the new portfolios that cater to specific countries, such as the new Mediterranean file, defence industry, or housing.

“It’s a bit like the Hunger Games – there are lots of demands and ambitions everywhere, but some will need to face the fact that they will end up dead in the ditch with one of the less desirable portfolios, such as culture,” a second EU diplomat said.

“We all would like to believe there are no first-, second-, or third-class members, but the reality is that there are, and portfolio distribution tends to show it,” the diplomat added.

But besides topical Commissioner portfolios, a less prominent consideration lies with a post’s actual power.

Von der Leyen is expected to simplify the structure of the next Commission by moving from the current three layers of executive vice-presidents, vice-presidents, and commissioners to only two, people familiar with the matter said.

With the new term, the EU executive is also looking at how to distribute policy priorities across its many directorates-general, Euractiv understands.

Tough grillings ahead

Hearings in parliamentary committees will begin in late September or early October, before the plenary’s green light by December.

Each parliamentary committee is expected to grill the candidates with written questions and in public hearings, based on its area of expertise.

All of the challenges listed above could complicate von der Leyen’s efforts to secure confirmation of her nominees, with the grillings being potentially tougher than in the previous term.

The gentleman’s agreement among the EU’s centrist parties to keep extremes at bay was held as the European Parliament elected chairs and vice chairs of its committees this week.

“But let’s see how much of a problem that cordon sanitaire becomes when it comes to the hearings,” a European Parliament source told Euractiv.

“It’s possible that some grievances could resurface then, especially as they [the hard-right ECR] are the third largest group and will want to show some teeth once the parliamentary business kicks off in September.”

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/René Moerland]

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