Waiting for a new French government, Brussels can breathe a bit

4 months ago 20

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The Left’s victory in the French parliamentary elections has given Brussels a brief respite, even if the road to a coalition government in France remains long and uncertain.

It was a shock when the left-wing coalition, le nouveau front populaire (NFP), came out on top of the second round of French parliamentary elections this weekend.

All the signs were that the far right would come to power in France for the first time since the Vichy regime of the 1940s. However, as in 1936, various political forces on the left united under a single banner to block the path of Rassemblement National (RN).

The results give us a French National Assembly that is more divided than ever, within which it will be extremely difficult to form a majority.

In this scenario, what will France’s political future be, and its place within the European institutions?

The victory of the left – or rather the defeat of the far right – offers relief to Brussels, at least for a while. Indeed, if the RN had won the elections and taken its seat at the prime minister’s residence at Matignon, the Council of the European Union would have seen the arrival of far-right eurosceptic ministers representing 67 million inhabitants.

In the case of a qualified majority vote, France could prevent the adoption of numerous European texts. For example the much-debated Nature Restoration Law would not have passed with a eurosceptic France in the room.

Moreover, the lack of a clear majority in the National Assembly gives Macron a free hand to nominate a (presumably pro-European) French European Commissioner, since international affairs remain the prerogative of the President of the Republic.

What policies can we expect?

The NFP has certainly come out on top, but still needs allies to adopt its programme, which is largely based on European climate and energy laws with greater ambition, particularly on social issues.

In addition, the next government will have to deliver France’s National Energy and Climate Plan as soon as possible (the deadline was 30 June).

NFP has made its participation in the government conditional on the implementation of its programme. This includes plans to reconsider several measures of French President Emmanuel Macron, such as pension reforms, the abolition of wealth tax, and the merger between the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) and the Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN).

Ultimately, the future prime minister will have to win the support of the left, centre and right – in effect creating a ‘grand coalition’ as exists in the European Parliament.

If no coalition emerges, Macron may be tempted to set up a technical government based on the Italian model, to ensure France’s presence in the EU institutions and reassure its European partners.

However, this scenario could give the RN a boost, as this type of government of pro-European experts may appear to be an imposition from Brussels, amplifying the French people’s rejection of Europe.

It could be early autumn before new leaders are installed and working in the EU institutions, but negotiations to form a new French executive may even take longer.

[Nathan Canas]

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11-12 JULY. Informal meeting of environment ministers
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14 OCTOBER. Environment Council
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16 DECEMBER. Energy Council
17 DECEMBER. Environment Council
19-20 DECEMBER. European Council

[Edited by Donagh Cagney/Rajnish Singh]

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