Watershed elections in Serbia: Happy New Year 1997?

With just one week before Serbia elects a new national parliament and several local parliaments on Friday, predictions point to possible significant setbacks to the government that could echo the 1997 elections, which ultimately led to mass protests and a shift in political power.

The intensity of the campaign is heightened by the active participation of public figures, celebrities and intellectuals, who add an extra layer of excitement to an already tense electoral atmosphere.

The last time local elections were held independently of national parliamentary elections was in 2004. As a result, there was widespread anticipation that 2024 would be a double election year in Serbia. However, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s decision to call for early national parliamentary and partial local elections at the end of 2023 was a surprise. The local elections include the hotly contested city of Belgrade.

High inflation, gun violence and the acceptance of the so-called “Franco-German proposal” to normalise relations with Kosovo have contributed to a slow but steady decline in the poll ratings of the two main ruling parties, SNS and SPS.

As the independent civil society organisation CRTA points out, the campaign reveals a remarkable imbalance among the participants with prominent issues including the misuse of public resources, political patronage and pressure, particularly on public sector employees.

The media continues to be dominated by the ruling parties and Vučić. For example, in the first half of the election campaign, the ratio of government to opposition representatives on national television was 81% to 19%. In the information segment, which plays a key role in forming voters’ attitudes, opposition representatives were portrayed negatively in 77% of cases and positively in only 1% of cases.

The negative media campaign went so far as to publish a sex tape of opposition candidate Đorđe Miketić first on the social network X and then in the mainstream media. Vučić indirectly announced this “sex scandal” a few days before its publication, commenting negatively on Miketic’s previous statements. After the tape was leaked, Miketić withdrew from the election campaign.

The ruling parties have links with Brussels: SNS is a European People’s Party (EPP) associate member. The SPS, the party of war criminal and former dictator, accused of genocide, Slobodan Milošević, is not a member of any Europarty but sits with the Socialist Group in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

The only opinion poll conducted after the electoral list was finalised put the SNS-led list at just under 40% and its leading coalition partner, the SPS, at 8%. A broad alliance of centre-left, liberal, environmentalist-progressive and centre-right parties, which orchestrated the significant mass protests – the largest since the ousting of Milošević – have united under a single banner and adopted the name of the protests, “Serbia against violence”.

According to the poll, they are slightly above the 25% mark, which would be the most impressive result for any opposition list since the current SNS/SPS government came to power in 2012.

In contrast, the right-wing opposition parties, unlike their pro-EU counterparts, have been unable to reach a consensus on joint list participation. The outcome of which parties will cross the 3% threshold remains uncertain, especially if blank and invalid votes are included.

Designated minority lists representing Hungarians, Albanians, Bosnians, Croats and others are excluded from the legal threshold.

Initial opinion polls and the consensus of most analysts predict an opposition majority in the local parliament in Belgrade, which tends to vote more liberal and progressive than the rest of the country.

The question, however, is: which parties would really be considered as the opposition if they were to enter the Belgrade City Council? This question is prompted by the events following the formation of the previous Belgrade government, where the SNS and SPS secured a majority of only one councillor.

In a surprising turn of events, several councillors from the SSZ (Oath Keepers) party switched their allegiance to the SNS after the elections. Even Vučić has openly expressed his expectation of support from right-wing parties in the City Assembly.

The local elections could draw striking parallels with the historical narrative of the “Together” opposition alliance. Despite its defeat in the 1996 parliamentary elections for the federal parliament of the former Yugoslavia, the alliance managed to secure victories in many major cities, including Belgrade. However, the ruling government and local election commissions under Milošević’s control refused to validate the opposition’s successes.

This led to several months of widespread opposition and student protests, culminating in the intervention of an OSCE mission and the recognition of the election results through a lex specialis.

Nevertheless, only a few months after the new local governments were established, the right-wing SPO party broke the “Together” coalition and formed a local government in Belgrade with the support of the SPS. Whether the opposition in 2024 will suffer a similar fate to its counterpart in 1997 remains an open question.

In addition to the traditional political actors, other non-traditional participants have entered the campaign, such as the ProGlas (Proclamation) initiative.

This group of prominent public figures, including actors, academics, university professors and judges, came together to motivate citizens to participate in the upcoming elections and “change the reality in Serbia”. Although the group didn’t explicitly endorse any list or party, it is believed that the “Serbia against violence” list would have the most to gain from this initiative.

Nevertheless, many feel that this initiative is acting as the main “opposition alliance”, overshadowing the opposition alliances because they’re less visible in the traditional media. The ProGlas initiative has so far managed to collect more than 170,000 signatures. On the other hand, this Friday, a pro-government tabloid published another group of academics, public figures, doctors, folk singers and other celebrities who explicitly signed in support of the SNS list led by Vučić.

Analysts see this list as a counter-initiative. Among the many names, NBA MVP Nikola Jokić appears in this group. President Vučić had already announced that one name would be a big surprise in this campaign shortly after the ProGlas initiative was announced.

(Mihail Murgashanski, EuropeElects)

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