Weakened Modi reliant on allies for third term

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a record-tying third term in India’s elections but lost more than 60 seats, a far weaker result than he had hoped for, or predicted.

With results tabulated for all but one of the 543 seats in parliament, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., remains the single largest party, having won 240 seats.

But that is down from 303 in the last election in 2019, at a stroke losing its outright majority.

This means that Modi will depend more heavily on his coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance to form a government, and the results give these smaller parties more leverage. NDA, an alliance of conservative Hindu nationalist parties led by BJP, looks set to control 290 seats.

A total of 272 seats were needed for BJP to govern on its own in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, or lower house of parliament. Modi had predicted that the BJP would win 370 seats and his alliance would command 400 seats.

Modi did not remark on the turn of fortunes after the victory. “I bow to the people for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people,” he said on X.

He said his win was “the biggest in the world.”

But the opposition Congress party, with Rahul Gandhi as its figurehead, performed much better than early exit polls predicted. Gandhi said voters had “punished” the BJP.

A jailed Sikh separatist leader who stood in India’s election won a seat in parliament on Tuesday with over 400,000 votes in what aides and relatives said was a sign of public anger over the “injustice” of his incarceration.

Amritpal Singh, 31, is detained in a high-security prison in Assam, nearly 3,000 km from his Khadoor Sahib constituency in the Punjab state.

“People have given such a huge victory in his favour to tackle the injustice he faces,” Singh’s lawyer Imaan Singh Khara said.

Singh was arrested last year and jailed under a tough security law after he and hundreds of his supporters stormed a police station with swords and firearms, demanding the release of one of his aides.

Singh said in a 2023 interview that he was seeking a separate homeland for Sikhs and the people of Punjab, where the religion was founded more than 500 years ago.

The son of one of Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassins, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, a Sikh hardliner, also won election on Tuesday as an independent.

Analysts say that support for Singh and Khalsa should not be construed as backing for a separatist movement that now commands little popular support in Punjab.

Sikh separatism has made global headlines in the last year as Canada and the United States have accused India of being involved in assassination plots against Sikhs in those countries, charges New Delhi has denied.

The BJP’s manifesto promised a national code that will replace religion-specific civil laws in the country, a move many from the Muslim minority say is aimed at curbing centuries-old religious practices it follows.

Analysts say plans for the code could be set aside in favour of bread and butter issues.

Temples at disputed sites

After Modi inaugurated a temple to the Hindu God Ram at Ayodhya earlier this year, party leaders have said another emphatic electoral victory would help them to build temples on other disputed sites. This stems from their belief that Muslim invaders built mosques over demolished Hindu temples.

Some BJP leaders have subsequently said there is no need to build temples in place of mosques without legal backing and stoke tensions, but existing Hindu religious sites could be developed to draw more tourists.

One nation, one election

Modi’s party has promised to implement an official report recommending elections to India’s 28 state assemblies and national parliament at the same time, every five years.

With the reduced margin – and protests from some opposition parties who fear the move could sideline smaller regional parties, help national parties dominate the narrative and create a presidential type of government – this move is unlikely to see the light of day for now.

Economy

The BJP manifesto “guarantees” India will grow to become the third-largest economy in the world, from the fifth largest. The party promises to maintain high growth and low inflation while keeping the budget deficit under control. It also talks about boosting manufacturing and employment opportunities.

Experts say that Modi will have a tough balancing act in his third term as he will have to ensure that possible demands from key allies for welfare policies are met.

Analysts say Modi may also have to take supply-side measures like cuts in import duties to lower inflation as well as creating an environment for investments that lead to jobs – two key planks for the opposition during the election.

Read more with Euractiv