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What is Labour NOT telling us about tax hikes? After a manifesto big on windy promises and small on detail, even Left-wing think-tank warns of 'parliament of tax rises'

3 months ago 18

By Jason Groves and Claire Ellicott

Published: 23:54 BST, 13 June 2024 | Updated: 23:54 BST, 13 June 2024

Britain was last night warned to brace for a ‘parliament of tax rises’ if Labour wins the election.

Sir Keir Starmer opened a £25 billion tax divide with the Conservatives yesterday as he published Labour’s manifesto for power.

But experts warned that Sir Keir would have to raise taxes even higher unless he is willing to impose deep spending cuts or break the party’s own fiscal rules.

Labour’s blueprint confirms plans for £8.5 billion in tax rises, which would take the UK’s overall tax burden to its highest level in history. The plan contrasts sharply with the £17 billion of tax cuts offered by Rishi Sunak in his manifesto.

Sir Keir said he would make economic growth the party’s ‘core’ mission as he tries to ‘turn the page’ on 14 years of Conservative rule.

Sir Keir Starmer opened a £25 billion tax divide with the Conservatives yesterday as he published Labour’s manifesto for power

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described Labour’s manifesto as a ‘tax trap’ – and said analysis of Labour’s plans suggested a further £38.5 billion would have to be raised in tax over four years to pay for its plans

Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Paul Johnson said Labour had ‘literally no room’ to increase spending without raising taxes further or breaking its own fiscal rules

He described his plans as a ‘manifesto for hope’, but warned there was no ‘magic wand’ and said the problems an incoming Labour administration would inherit would not ‘disappear overnight’.

The Labour leader said the tax burden was too high and insisted he wants to make Labour the party of ‘wealth creation’.

Sir Keir dismissed the idea of a tax divide, saying the Tories’ proposals were not credible.

But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described Labour’s manifesto as a ‘tax trap’ – and said analysis of Labour’s plans suggested a further £38.5 billion would have to be raised in tax over four years to pay for its plans, leaving questions about where the money will come from.

The centre-Left Resolution Foundation think-tank, whose boss quit this month to stand as a Labour MP, said Sir Keir’s approach ‘sets the scene for a parliament of tax rises and spending cuts for unprotected departments’.

‘Even then, a modest dose of bad economic news could force a fresh round of tough fiscal choices,’ it warned.

Starmer described his plans as a ‘manifesto for hope’, but warned there was no ‘magic wand’ and said the problems an incoming Labour administration would inherit would not ‘disappear overnight’

The tax row came as:

  •  Sir Keir said ‘everything’ about Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal would be up for negotiation in talks with the EU;
  •  Labour announced reviews of policy in more than a dozen key areas such as defence, the school curriculum and welfare reform, leaving voters in the dark about the party’s post-election plans;
  •  Tory chairman Richard Holden accused Sir Keir of ‘rigging the electorate’ by pressing ahead with plans to lower the voting age to 16;
  •  Labour announced that the ban on new petrol and diesel cars would be brought forward by five years to 2030;
  •  The PM said parliamentary aide Craig Williams had made a ‘huge error of judgment’ when he placed a £100 bet on a July election just days before it was announced;  Labour sources hinted that the party will repeal laws that ban Channel migrants from claiming asylum in the UK;
  •  For the first time, the Reform UK party edged ahead of the Tories – 19 per cent to 18 per cent – in a poll of voters;
  •  Labour said it would boot out hereditary peers from the House of Lords and introduce a retirement age of 80.

Rishi Sunak with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the G7 Summit. Mr Sunak said: ‘There’s a very clear choice now at the election – a Conservative government that will cut taxes for you at every stage of your life, and a potential Labour government that will raise the tax burden to the highest level in our country’s history’

The Institute for Fiscal Studies accused Labour of joining a ‘conspiracy of silence’ over the true state of the public finances and said Sir Keir was likely to face an unpalatable choice of tax rises or spending cuts if he won power. Director Paul Johnson said Labour had ‘literally no room’ to increase spending without raising taxes further or breaking its own fiscal rules.

Former shadow chancellor Ed Balls said Labour’s ‘straitjacket’ manifesto would make the first year of government ‘very difficult’.

At the G7 summit in Italy, Mr Sunak said: ‘There’s a very clear choice now at the election – a Conservative government that will cut taxes for you at every stage of your life, and a potential Labour government that will raise the tax burden to the highest level in our country’s history.’

Labour’s 135-page manifesto includes 33 pictures of Sir Keir, but no new policies.

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