What to expect from the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland

Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland on Saturday (15 June) will aim to drum up broad support for Kyiv’s peace plan and dial up pressure on Moscow to end its war, but questions remain over how impactful it can be without Russia and key Global South countries attending.

When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in the resort of Bürgenstock in the Swiss Alps, the number of participants is expected to be smaller and less high-level than Kyiv hoped for.

Ukrainian officials have been promoting the weekend’s peace summit across the world and extending invitations to 160 countries, in an attempt to drum up support and attendance.

US Vice President Kamala Harris, French President Emmanuel Macron, and the leaders of Germany, Italy, the UK, Canada, and Japan are among the 100 countries and organisations set to participate in the 15-16 June talks.

India, which helped Russia cope with economic sanctions, is expected to send a delegation. Turkey and Hungary, who similarly maintain close ties with Moscow, will be represented by their foreign ministers.

But the participants list will have notable absentees with many world leaders—including US President Joe Biden, who returns from the G7 in Italy to an election fundraiser back home.

Global South buy-in

“This meeting is already a result,” Zelenskyy said in Berlin on Tuesday (11 June), but also acknowledging the challenges of maintaining international support.

“Uniting countries who are partners and non-partners is a difficult mission in itself for Ukraine when the war is not in its first month,” said Zelenskyy.

Since presenting the 10-point peace plan in late 2022, there has been a series of preparatory meetings, which in different stages were attended by China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.

The proposal had been gaining traction, with major countries from the ‘Global South’ signalling interest at a meeting in Saudi Arabia last summer.

But China, along with Brazil, has recently been pushing a separate peace plan, calling for the equal participation of both Kyiv and Moscow, which the latter has voiced its support.

Ukraine has not hidden its frustration at Beijing’s decision to not attend, accusing China of helping Russia to disrupt it.

In Singapore two weeks ago, Zelenskyy publicly accused Beijing of lobbying countries not to attend.

He also echoed Western countries’ accusation that China is supplying Russia’s military with dual-use technology to fight its war in Ukraine.

“The absence of China in Switzerland and its outreach to discourage participation do not strengthen China’s claims of neutrality,” EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said ahead of the talks, which he will attend alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India and South Africa earlier said they wanted to help find a diplomatic end to the war, despite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being just a few hours away in southern Italy for the G7 Summit.

However, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declined to attend after saying he would, instead sending his foreign minister. The other two countries are not expected to send any top officials.

In addition, Israel’s war in Gaza, the West’s ambiguous response and slow response to the humanitarian plight, have impacted diplomat efforts, according to Western and Ukrainian officials.

Russia has also aimed to undermine the summit’s validity with accusations of the West’s ‘double standards’ with Global South countries.

Just ahead of the peace summit, Zelenskyy over the past weeks embarked on a flurry of diplomatic visits to the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Qatar and Italy.

But despite months of intense lobbying, the list of attendees contains glaring absences.

Ukraine’s Western partners have also been lobbying Global South countries at the G7 summit in Italy, which a large number attended for an “outreach session”, European officials said.

Some Western officials have privately expressed worries that the summit could potentially even weaken Ukraine, just as its armed forces are attempting to counteract Russia’s recent battlefield gains.

Ukraine’s peace formula

This weekend’s summit is underpinned by a 10-point peace formula outlined by Zelenskyy in late 2022, containing a roadmap of how to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The talks are expected to shy away from territorial issues, focusing on parts of Zelenskyy’s plan that can gather the most broad support.

Three out of the 10 points in the peace plan will be discussed this weekend: nuclear safety, food security and the return of Ukrainians, including abducted children held by Russia.

Beyond that, it will also focus on ensuring free navigation and protecting Black Sea port infrastructure.

The remaining points, including a full pullback of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and the restoration of its borders, will be tackled at a later stage, said Ukrainian officials.

Moscow has already completely rejected Ukraine’s peace formula, describing the summit to which it was not invited as “futile”.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said on Friday (14 June), that Moscow would only end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over the entirety of four provinces currently occupied by its forces.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy, described Putin’s  terms for peace as “a complete sham.”

“The ‘proposal of RF’ looks like this: 1. Give us your territories. 2. Give up your sovereignty and your subjectivity. 3. Leave yourselves unprotected,”  said Podolyak.

What next?

The summit comes as Russian troops, who control around 18% of Ukrainian territory, are advancing in the country’s east.

Ukraine’s Western allies are not confident that the diplomatic push in itself prompt Russia to curb its war aims, said diplomats.

It is more designed to “reduce the space for any unhelpful initiatives”, people with knowledge of the organisation say.

The Swiss organisers have stressed they will remain realistic about the summit’s potential outcomes, as it aims to find a “possible path towards peace in Ukraine” and provide a “basis” for a future peace process.

They hope that it would pave the way for a “future peace process” in which Russia takes part.

US and European officials say that it would already be a win if Ukraine and its supporting countries agree on conditions for eventual peace terms with Russia.

A joint statement this weekend could be issued at the close, which could be used as the basis for the next talks.

A “huge number” of countries are already interested in a second round of talks, Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office, told a group of reporters, including Euractiv, this week.

“We are looking at the possibility in the second summit to invite a representative from Russia,” he said.

But Western diplomats don’t believe a multilateral, public summit setting would be able to sway Russia to participate in anything resembling peace negotiations on Ukraine’s terms.

[Edited by Rajnish Singh]

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